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Kyle Tucker is a Dodger. Bo Bichette is a Met. J.T. Realmuto is (still) a Phillie. We had a three-team trade, a major shortstop injury and a wild prediction … and the Hall of Fame announcement comes tomorrow?! WHEW! I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup! (Tell us how we’re doing in this reader survey!)
Big Swings: Kyle Tucker is Dodgers’ latest splurge
Nobody spends money quite like the Dodgers. Their latest luxury spend: outfielder Kyle Tucker, who signed a four-year, $240 million deal, with opt-outs after Years 2 and 3.
With deferrals ($30 million over the final three years), his “luxury tax” salary for 2026 is $57.1 million. At roughly $90 million over the highest luxury tax bracket threshold, L.A. will be paying a 110 percent tax on Tucker’s contract. I did the math … That’s $119.91 million out of pocket just in 2026.
According to FanGraphs’ projected 2026 payrolls, that’s more than 11 teams will pay their entire roster. L.A. will also forfeit four of its top six draft picks. It seems it’s stopped worrying about any coming “cliff.”
- Since November 2023, per Spotrac, there have been 29 nine-digit contracts/extensions in baseball — about one per team. Tucker is the Dodgers’ sixth after Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and the Tyler Glasnow and Will Smith extensions. Sixteen teams have not handed out any such contract over that time.
- The Dodgers currently have eight players projected to make more than $20 million per year in 2026. That’s (obviously) the most, with the Yankees, Mets and Phillies at six each. Eight teams (Pirates, Cardinals, Reds, Nationals, Marlins, White Sox, Twins, Rays) have zero such players. Five teams (Rockies, A’s, Mariners, Guardians, Orioles) have one.
If the league is pushing for a salary cap (it is), it has to be thrilled about this inequality. But as Ken points out: Money is a major factor, but it’s not the only factor. And Tyler Kepner and Andy McCullough note that L.A. has made some incredibly smart decisions.
But yeah, it also does things other teams can’t. When 29 other teams decided Tucker wasn’t worth a long-term deal, the Dodgers could overpay for fewer years.
But do they care about “ruining baseball?” The hidden camera footage from their front-office suite during the Winter Meetings suggests they do not.
Oh right. There’s the baseball angle. Tucker’s personality should be perfect for L.A., says Patrick Mooney. And Katie Woo explains just how stacked this roster is.
Over to Ken for a note on Hall of Fame ballots.
Ken’s Notebook: Revising my HOF standards
From my latest column:
If there is a theme to my Hall of Fame ballot this year, it’s that I no longer am penalizing players for things they did not accomplish, through little or no fault of their own.
I think I’ve gotten it wrong on certain players by dwelling on their lack of longevity rather than the glory of their peaks. I think we, the voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, have gotten it wrong, too.
Longevity will always be a key attribute for some candidates. Ten-year dominance is still the first thing I look for in a Hall of Famer. But as I wrote in December, certain players, pitchers in particular, do not last as long as they once did. As performance standards change, voters need to recalibrate.
My first-time votes included two players whose careers ended prematurely due to injury (Dustin Pedroia and David Wright), another whose decline was perhaps attributable to overuse (Félix Hernández) and a fourth (Mark Buehrle) who had a similar career to another candidate I finally deemed worthy, only without the postseason opportunity.
Once I relented on Andy Pettitte, whom I snubbed in his previous seven appearances on the ballot, I found it difficult to exclude Buehrle. And once I included Buehrle along with Hernández and Pettitte, I found it difficult to exclude Cole Hamels, making his first appearance on the ballot.
My holdover selections were Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.
Yes, I voted for the maximum 10 players, and yes, I continued to exclude Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, both of whom were suspended after MLB established firm rules and penalties for using performance-enhancing drugs. That is my line — I have voted for Pettitte and others who were suspected or confirmed to have used PEDs before the league set clear boundaries — and I know not everyone agrees with it.
I know not everyone will agree with my selections, either. I was torn on a number of them myself. Every year when I place my ballot in the mailbox — yes, we still do it by mail! — I feel a lingering sense of dissatisfaction. Many voters do. You’re just never quite sure if you’ve got it right.
The one thing I try to do is remain flexible in my thinking, adapting as standards evolve, allowing for new perspectives. A player’s statistics do not change in the five years he must wait after retirement to become eligible for the Hall, or the maximum 10 years he can remain on the ballot. But for a variety of reasons, our appreciation of a player might.
Back to you, Levi.
Surprise: Bo Bichette to the … Mets?!
With their best offer to Tucker rebuffed, the Mets pivoted to one of the league’s best contact hitters. Bo Bichette signed a three-year, $126 million contract with opt-outs after each season.
The shock isn’t that the Mets spent money. Their luxury tax situation is similar to L.A.’s (Bichette’s total luxury tax bill in 2026: $98.7 million). Seven players in baseball history have signed for $42 million or more per season. Over half (four) were with the Mets.
The shock was that the Mets hadn’t been publicly linked to Bichette. And why would they? They already employed — third to first — Brett Baty, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco. Throw in Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Jr. and Ronny Mauricio, and well … Jeff McNeil was the odd man out.
But it looks like Bichette will play third — where he has never played professionally. (Relevant addendum: Polanco has played first base for … one pitch.)
So much for that improved defense?
Baty now seems destined to be a McNeil-esque utility player, spending some time in the outfield. As for the other guys, who knows? Maybe they just became part of the plan to get one more outfielder?
News and More News: Big Notes Roundup
This week was too much. Any one of these stories could have been a full section. Instead, let’s rapid-fire them.
- We had a three-team trade! The Reds, Rays and Angels matched up for a swap, and I made a quick “Analog Design Is My Passion” graph about it.
The Rays have now traded both of their remaining Lowe/Lowes. Brandon Lowe (rhymes with “now”) is now with the Pirates, while Josh Lowe (rhymes with “no”) goes to the Angels in this deal.
Bizarrely, this is Brock Burke’s second three-way trade involving a California team and the Rays. Tampa Bay drafted him in 2014, then shipped him to Texas in the deal that sent Jurickson Profar to the then-Oakland A’s. To make things more confusing, that was the same trade that sent current Reds closer Emilio Pagán from Oakland to … the Rays.
More big notes:
- Ha-Seong Kim, fresh off signing a one-year deal with the Braves for $20 million, is going to miss significant time with an injury yet again in 2026. After falling on some ice, he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger. He is expected to miss 4-5 months.
- Clayton Kershaw is gonna get one more goodbye, pitching for Team USA in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
- Cincinnati SS Elly De La Cruz did not get permission to participate in the WBC while recovering from a quad injury. C. Trent Rosecrans also reported this week that De La Cruz recently passed on what would have been the largest contract in franchise history.
- After the Phillies missed out on Bichette, they quickly turned their attention back to Realmuto. He’s returning to Philadelphia for three years and $45 million.
Handshakes and High Fives
After Sam Blum’s story on the Angels and Rio Foster — the prospect who was badly injured in a car accident last year — the team agreed to re-up Foster’s contract for 2026, so he doesn’t lose health insurance as he fights to recover.
The Orioles are interested in Justin Verlander? Uhhh … Did I predict this? (Answer: Yes.)
Mookie Betts is retiring … after the 2032 season. Thanks for the heads up, Mookie.
Tyler Kepner has a touching obituary for knuckleballer Wilbur Wood, who died at 84 years old.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Our writers explaining their Hall of Fame votes.
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