Any list of Edmonton Oilers players who will play at the 2026 Olympics in Milan, Italy, begins with Connor McDavid (Canada) and Leon Draisaitl (Germany). After that, there are several names worthy of consideration, from the top of Edmonton’s roster through some minor-league stars who could represent their respective countries.
The hottest debate surrounds Oilers star defenceman Evan Bouchard. Previously thought to be outside the final roster, Bouchard’s star seems to be rising late in the selection process. Pierre LeBrun at The Athletic wrote last week, “Evan Bouchard has been written off by many, but the reality is that he remains in the conversation, at least at some level. He’s been better over the past month.”
Bouchard is a lightning rod player for all involved, including Oilers fans. He’s the latest, and one of the best, of a long line of Oilers defencemen who belong to the “chaos puck mover” family. That list includes Paul Coffey, Risto Siltanen, Norm MacIver, Tom Poti and Justin Schultz.
Bouchard inspires strong reactions, strongly positive and powerfully negative. Here are the key arguments for and against Bouchard playing in the Olympics.
Scoring and outscoring
Bouchard’s offensive output is staggering. Since the beginning of the 2023-24 season, he has averaged 75 points per 82 regular-season games. In the playoffs, Bouchard has delivered 81 points in 75 career games. His passing, creativity and brazen approach to danger make him an elite offensive driver.
The Oilers routinely outscore opponents at five-on-five when he’s on the ice. Since 2023-24, Edmonton has a 56.4 percent goal share with Bouchard, and just 48 percent when he’s at rest. Bouchard with McDavid in that time runs at 61 percent, with both men hovering around 50 percent when apart, via Natural Stat Trick. The Oilers have averaged 3.29 goals per 60 at five-on-five in the last three seasons with Bouchard on the ice, 2.26 goals per 60 without him
The power play is Bouchard’s wheelhouse. The team averages 11.48 goals per 60 with the man advantage, and Bouchard is among the league leaders in individual points per 60 (6.46) with the man advantage in the last three seasons.
Bouchard is at his best when in the offensive end, meaning he’s not playing defence and miles from his own net. A good defence is a great offence, and that’s where Bouchard earns his living.
The eye test
Our brains are hard-wired to notice mistakes by defencemen. The close proximity to the net on turnovers means a higher level of risk for blue liners. A centre can fly down the ice and turn over the puck at the opposition blue line, but there’s plenty of real estate to go before anything bad happens. It’s a mistake, but needs one of two more miscues or great plays linked together in order to result in a goal against. A turnover by a defenceman is more perilous, and often results in an extreme high-danger chance or a goal surrendered.
Bouchard’s video resume includes fabulous stretch passes and “thread the needle” outlets that few in the league could contemplate, let alone accomplish. However, there’s a high risk involved in many of those plays. It’s also true that Bouchard’s calm demeanour can result in baffling giveaways. Those plays can give the impression he’s lazy, or indifferent, plus slow to adjust. In reality, Bouchard is more comfortable with risk than most NHL players. He’s comfortable in high-danger situations, and he’s extremely confident. Not every coach embraces that kind of skill set and approach.
Versus elites
The turnovers often cost goals, and that’s a major reason Bouchard probably misses out on the Olympic experience this time. However, the visual evidence, while powerful, should be placed into context. Math loves him.
We’ve already seen that Bouchard does a splendid job at five-on-five, but what about those minutes when the other team has the best lines and pairings on the ice? What does the Edmonton coaching staff do, and how well does each defenceman perform? Here’s a look, via Puck IQ, of the Oilers in 2025-26:
| Player | Mins-Game | DFF Pct | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Mattias Ekholm |
6:55 |
55 |
56 |
|
Evan Bouchard |
6:53 |
54 |
59 |
|
Darnell Nurse |
6:24 |
47 |
57 |
|
Jake Walman |
6:20 |
42 |
50 |
|
Brett Kulak |
4:30 |
39 |
38 |
|
Alec Regula |
4:22 |
48 |
60 |
|
Ty Emberson |
3:16 |
40 |
60 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ
Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm play the most minutes, suggesting head coach Kris Knoblauch is confident in their performance and consistency. They are a quality tandem and the leaders of Edmonton’s defence. DFF percentage is Dangerous Fenwick, which is similar to expected goals. The Oilers have been running luck on the second and third pairings, which is represented by the gap between DFF percentage and goal percentage. Bouchard is full value for a handsome goal share.
Saw him good
Coaches and managers are risk-averse, and that’s the No. 1 reason Bouchard is on the outside of Team Canada for the Olympics in 2026. There are advantages to having puck movers on every pair, but it’s likely Cale Makar will be the only player of this type to make the team.
Bouchard would be helpful for many reasons, including chemistry. If the team takes Bouchard along, the McDavid line would have a five-on-five and power-play quarterback ideally suited to sending him away through the neutral zone with expert passes. Coaches are focused on how to control the game, and Bouchard’s “controller unplugged” moments (a phrase coined by Rachel Kryshak) will give Team Canada’s management pause.
In the quote above from LeBrun, he writes, “My sense is it’s down to Bouchard or 18-year-old rookie Matthew Schaefer for the eighth defenseman spot, and I would give Schaefer the edge right now.”
That’s the likely path, but it has more to do with Canada’s management and coaching staff than Bouchard. If he plays for Canada, there’s a better chance of winning 5-3, but the team will be designed to win games 3-2.
That means running a risk-averse lineup, mixing in rugged play and quality coverage with the offensive drivers, and placing increased importance on suppression. If Canada sent a pure skill team to Italy, the impact of the coaching would be reduced, and some control would be lost.
In international competition, Canada isn’t far removed from the Mike Babcock style of coaching. The design and deployment template seeks a low-scoring game. Canada would have an easier time winning Olympic gold by loading up on skill, but you’re unlikely to see it in your lifetime. So, Bouchard staying home is the likely scenario.