Who will win Best Picture among top contenders?

After decades of ignoring horror films at large, the 2026 Oscars have rewritten the sins of Academy Awards history by anointing Ryan Coogler’s Sinners as the most-nominated movie of all time. But will the feat be enough to push it into the Oscars’ winners’ circle over One Battle After Another?

At the end of 2025, things seemed buttoned up for Paul Thomas Anderson’s thriller One Battle After Another to steamroll the season. While that’s still a realistic scenario, cross-branch support at the Oscars (to the tune of a landmark 16 overall nominations) indicates collective passion might’ve shifted toward Sinners in recent weeks.

Tying the prior record for most nods by one film (14) is an impressive feat, as La La Land managed to do for the first time since 1997’s Titanic back in 2017. But Sinners not only met the challenge, it surpassed the benchmark by two, meaning every eligible branch that could vote for the movie, did.

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Oscar nominations morning is not the time for any contender to lose momentum, whether it’s real interest among voters or even falling a few places back in the Oscars publicity machine. One Battle has, effectively, dominated the conversation for months; after attention shifted back to Sinners following its monumental box-office run, it seemed that enthusiasm could jump ship from Anderson’s latest as Coogler’s genre masterwork rises in its place.

However, One Battle After Another surged back at the Directors Guild of America Awards, where Anderson scored the ceremony’s top prize over Coogler, clearing a path for the Magnolia director’s Oscar victory as well.

Despite a narrative fueling Sinners’ resurgence (with Coogler helming a predominantly Black cast en route to just under $370 million at the global box office, all for an original story with no foundational source material), the film isn’t without its critics. Many have found it to be overly long and perhaps too experimental for some commercial tastes, while One Battle is a “safer” and more traditional option. But money talks, and Sinners‘ audience appeal is something Hollywood desperately needs right now, amid the age of what many consider to be a bleak era of sequel-soaked, IP-driven slop.

While we’re shifting back to One Battle for Best Picture, Sinners will generate even more traction at SAG’s 2026 Actor Awards on March 1, where the film will likely earn the top competitive honor for its ensemble. There, the film also earned five individual nods from the largest Hollywood union — a group that shares huge crossover membership with the Academy.

On paper, though, One Battle still managed to outdo Sinners at the Actor Awards, earning at least one nomination in every Actor Award category (including for its stunt ensemble) — and two for Supporting Actor contenders Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn.

That push and pull could point to another Best Picture/Best Director split ahead, with One Battle‘s tight direction finally scoring Anderson his first victory in the category, while stronger overall cross-branch support for Sinners (and what the film represents) resulting in enough passionate, top-ballot placements for the film to squeeze it into the winner’s circle for Best Picture.

At the Oscars, the acting winners still feel safe and secure. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme cleaned up at most precursor awards ceremonies (including the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards), as has Jessie Buckley’s leading turn in Hamnet. One Battle‘s Teyana Taylor is also in a safe spot, with her track record showing resilience in the later stages of the race.

While the film only scored one nomination, Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You did triumph at the Indie Spirits ahead of final Oscar voting, and it’s always good to get more eyeballs (and publicity) for a given performance at this vital stage.

Supporting Actor also feels less assured. Yes, Stellan Skarsgård triumphed at the Globes (and the all-important European Film Awards showered Sentimental Value with love at its annual ceremony), but Jacob Elordi‘s work in Frankenstein is the most physically transformative turn in the bunch. If he wins with SAG voters (as the populist group often heralds more commercially friendly, starrier performances), expect the Euphoria star to repeat at the Oscars.

Before the 2026 Oscars winners are revealed Sunday, March 15, during the ABC telecast, read on for Entertainment Weekly‘s full list of 98th Academy Awards winner predictions.

Best Picture

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
PREDICTED WINNER: One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

Best Director

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actor

PREDICTED WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

PREDICTED WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
PREDICTED WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
PREDICTED WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Animated Feature

Arco
Elio
PREDICTED WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr Nobody Against Putin
PREDICTED WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor

Best International Feature

The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
PREDICTED WINNER: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirât (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Best Original Screenplay

Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
Jafar Panahi (script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian), It Was Just an Accident
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
PREDICTED WINNER: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Tracy, Bugonia
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

Best Casting

Nina Gold, Hamnet
Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another
Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent
PREDICTED WINNER: Francine Maisler, Sinners

Best Film Editing

Stephen Mirrione, F1
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
PREDICTED WINNER: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

Best Cinematography

Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another
PREDICTED WINNER: Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners
Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams

Best Production Design

PREDICTED WINNER: Tamara Deverell, Shan Vieau, Frankenstein
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton, Hamnet
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis, Marty Supreme
Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another
Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne, Sinners

Best Costume Design

Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash
PREDICTED WINNER: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet
Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme
Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

PREDICTED WINNER: Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey, Frankenstein
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry, Sinners
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine
Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg, The Ugly Stepsister

Best Original Song

“Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless (music and lyrics by Diane Warren)
PREDICTED WINNER: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters (music and lyrics by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon, Teddy Park)
“I Lied to You,” Sinners (music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi! (music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike)
“Train Dreams,” Train Dreams (music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia
Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein
Max Richter, Hamnet
Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another
PREDICTED WINNER: Ludwig Goransson, Sinners

Best Sound

PREDICTED WINNER: Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta, F1
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Frankenstein
José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflo, One Battle After Another
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker, Sinners
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas, Sirât

Best Visual Effects

PREDICTED WINNER: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, Keith Dawson, F1
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould, Jurassic World: Rebirth
Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean, Sinners

Best Live-Action Short

Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
PREDICTED WINNER: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Best Animated Short

PREDICTED WINNER: Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms
PREDICTED WINNER: Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness