When the Patriots’ buses arrived back in New England after their trip to New York — during which they dismantled the Jets — hats and T-shirts commemorating their AFC East title were waiting for them. They had watched on the bus as the Buffalo Bills lost, clinching the division for the Pats and ending the Bills’ five-year reign atop the division.
But as the Patriots head into the final week of the regular season (their finale against the Miami Dolphins will kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday to line up with the Denver Broncos’ start time), much remains unknown.
The Patriots could finish with the first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference, or they could fall as low as the No. 3 seed if they lose to the Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tennessee Titans. The most likely outcome, though, is the No. 2 seed, which has a 60 percent chance of occurring, according to our playoff simulator.
We won’t know who the Patriots are playing in the wild-card round (if anyone) until Sunday night, but that doesn’t mean we can’t start looking ahead at potential matchups. So let’s rank their four potential first-round playoff foes from the team they match up worst against to the opponent they should most want to face.
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4. Buffalo Bills
The argument here is based more on feel than stats. Statistically, the Bills aren’t that much better than the Chargers, Jaguars or Texans.
But two things make the Bills the scariest potential matchup for the Patriots: experience and the quarterback.
Josh Allen is the defending NFL MVP. He’s carrying that team. And two weeks ago, he came into Gillette Stadium and hung 35 points on the Patriots, sending them off the field with their only loss in the last 13 games.
And while there are plenty of questions about the Bills roster beyond Allen and running back James Cook, this is a team that has proven it can win in the playoffs. Coming to Foxboro for a playoff game under the lights wouldn’t be too big for them. They haven’t gotten over the hump and reached the Super Bowl, but the Bills have won at least one playoff game in each of the last five years.
For a young and inexperienced Patriots team, that would make for a tough matchup.
3. Houston Texans
Unlike the Bills, the concern here is more based on the matchup. The Texans have an unbelievable defensive line that will give any offensive line issues, let alone a Patriots unit that has been playing without its starting left tackle and left guard. While the New England front five is much improved from a year ago, this would be tough sledding.
The only team with a higher pressure rate than the Texans (42.5 percent) is the Minnesota Vikings, and they blitz more than twice as often as the Texans. Houston ranks just 22nd in blitz percentage, yet it still dominates up front. That allows its defense to routinely drop seven players into coverage.
The Texans rank first in the NFL in defensive EPA per play and second in success rate. They’re also the best team in the league against the pass, based on EPA per play, which is where the Patriots offense thrives.
The Texans offense is the least menacing of the four potential opponents (based on EPA per play), but that defense is one to be afraid of.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have become a dangerous team in the second half of the season. In the first eight weeks, they ranked 22nd in offensive EPA per play and 16th defensively. Since Week 9, they rank 11th and sixth in those statistics.
So the fear in facing Jacksonville is that this is a team that’s getting hot at the right time.
After the Jags traded for former Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, their offense has really taken off. He has 37 catches for 439 yards and three touchdowns in his eight games in Duval.
Still, playoff football often comes down to who has the better quarterback. And for all of Jacksonville’s success this season, Trevor Lawrence only ranks 17th in EPA per dropback, 14th in success rate and 19th in yards per attempt. That aspect of this potential matchup has to look appealing to the Patriots.
1. Los Angeles Chargers
Jim Harbaugh has done an impressive job in getting the Chargers to an 11-5 record without two of their best players. Yet this is the matchup the Patriots should want.
With left tackle Joe Alt and right tackle Rashawn Slater injured, the Chargers have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. They’ve allowed pressure at the second-highest rate (42.3 percent) in the league. For a Patriots defense that has struggled to get pressure, this is one of the few potential opponents where you could imagine them getting to the quarterback.
With their banged-up O-line, the Chargers offense hasn’t been anything to be afraid of, ranking 20th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate. Their passing offense isn’t even in the top half of the league in EPA per play (it ranks 17th).
Of course, this isn’t to discount the Chargers as a worthy playoff opponent. The Los Angeles defense is legit and is ranked second among these four teams, behind only Houston’s. Since Week 9, the Chargers have the third-best defense in the league and the second-best unit against the run.
But if you have to pick one of these as a favorable matchup for the Patriots, it’s probably the team with a below-average offense and a beat-up offensive line.
Harbaugh did announce Monday that Justin Herbert (and presumably other Chargers starters) will sit for the team’s regular-season finale against the Broncos, improving Denver’s shot at the No. 1 seed and increasing the likelihood of a Chargers-Patriots matchup in the first round. It also means that, if that’s the case, the Chargers will head east well rested.