Over the last four seasons, the Edmonton Oilers’ No. 1 line (featuring Connor McDavid with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) has boasted a 59 percent goal share at five-on-five (82-56 goals). In the three seasons before this one, the trio averaged 3.93 goals per 60 and tilted the ice in Edmonton’s favour.
Since the Christmas break, the longtime trio owns a 44 percent goal share, which features just 2.41 goals per 60. That’s 174 minutes of playing time, and the Oilers would be wise to look at freshening the top line coming out of the Olympic break.
The problem is, how to do it? Right now, the Oilers don’t have many options. The deadline may bring help, but for now, here’s what fans are likely to see, along with intriguing backup plans for each trio.
Likely No. 1 line: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman
The Olympic break should serve as a reboot for the trio, and there’s a good chance this line remains intact for the rest of the season and playoffs. Nugent-Hopkins is a complementary offensive player on the line, but the chemistry for the trio is undeniable. Despite slowing down (as above) to a 44 percent goal share since the Christmas break, the line is scoring 3.41 goals per 60 with a 54 percent goal share over the entire season.
Backup plan: If the Oilers could find another left winger for the Draisaitl line, Vasily Podkolzin might be a good replacement for Nugent-Hopkins on the No. 1 unit. Podkolzin-McDavid-Hyman have played just 35 minutes at five-on-five this season; experts recommend 200 minutes before making conclusions. However, the trio has outscored opponents 4-0 in those 35 minutes, with an expected goal share of 57 percent. The line’s goals per 60 (6.77) is otherworldly but would regress.
The Podkolzin audition is worth remembering. There is an opportunity here should Nugent-Hopkins be needed on the third line.
No. 2 line: Vasily Podkolzin-Leon Draisaitl-Kasperi Kapanen
This trio slams. During the 2025-26 season, they have scored 5.03 goals per 60 with a 77 percent goal share. Those numbers are so strong that one could credibly argue this is the Oilers’ top unit.
Backup plan: The Draisaitl line is where complete unknowns go for a career spike. With Podkolzin on his way to a career season, perhaps he has the torque for the McDavid line. If it happens, Kris Knoblauch may want to try rookie Josh Samanski in a feature role. Samanski is scoring well at the Olympics on a line with Draisaitl. The young forward has size and showed two-way acumen in his five-game NHL audition leading up to the break. It’s an unusual solution, and there are other options, but Draisaitl’s long-established excellence in a mentor role could produce another effective player in Samanski.
No. 3 line: Adam Henrique-Jack Roslovic-Matt Savoie
This trio has two faster trains (Roslovic and Savoie) with Henrique offering a second centre and miles of experience. Roslovic is perhaps best served if deployed as a winger on one of the top two lines, but for now, he’s the best available for the No. 3 centre spot. Savoie was sent down to the AHL Bakersfield Condors on Tuesday, in what is viewed as a cap maneuver that should be short-term.
Backup plan: The best version of a third line has Nugent-Hopkins in the middle of Podkolzin and Kapanen, but Bowman can’t acquire two second-line wingers at the deadline. He could run Roslovic and Savoie with Nugent-Hopkins; it would be undersized but highly skilled and could dominate the soft parade.
No. 4 line: Mattias Janmark-Curtis Lazar-Trent Frederic
Few have noticed, but the combination of Lazar and Frederic has been getting things done in recent weeks. In 115 minutes at five-on-five this season, the two men own a 58 percent expected goal share and have yet to surrender a goal. Janmark has the coach’s trust despite delivering very little offence.
Backup plan: The misery of watching veterans underperform should be over after the Olympic break, but Henrique between Andrew Mangiapane and Janmark is a possible combination for Knoblauch once Henrique is activated from LTIR. Ideally, the club finds a way to employ Samanski, even if it’s on the fourth line with depth minutes.
Likely lines
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
|---|---|---|
|
Nugent-Hopkins |
McDavid |
Hyman |
|
Podkolzin |
Draisaitl |
Kapanen |
|
Henrique |
Roslovic |
Savoie |
|
Janmark |
Lazar |
Frederic |
The top line has been effective for four years in a row, and despite a performance falloff earlier this winter, the trio is a good bet to return well over 50 percent of the five-on-five goals. The Draisaitl line is money; no one can blame the coach for leaving it alone.
The third and fourth lines show an extreme devotion to avoiding risk, and that’s typical of NHL coaching staffs. Rookies will get you fired sooner than veterans. That said, the lack of creativity shown in populating these lines is the basis for the scoring and outscoring problem that faces Knoblauch and the coaching staff. What can be done?
The alternate plan
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
|---|---|---|
|
Podkolzin |
McDavid |
Hyman |
|
Samanski |
Draisaitl |
Kapanen |
|
Roslovic |
Nugent-Hopkins |
Savoie |
|
Henrique |
Lazar |
Frederic |
The risk is the ask of Samanski in a feature role, but his five-game audition for the Oilers showed he could help over 200 feet of ice. Draisaitl is an exceptional mentor, most recently rescuing Podkolzin and Kapanen from the fringes of the NHL.
The third line is problematic. Frederic would be an ideal addition to the unit if he can return to the form fans saw when he played for the Bruins. Failing that, the third line as constructed has two centres, plenty of speed and smarts, and should be attacking lesser competition with a high degree of skill and creativity. The fourth line is encouraging. Lazar and Frederic seem to have chemistry, and Samanski has earned NHL work in a short space of time.
Henrique being activated will send a cascade across the roster, and it’s possible Samanski lands in the AHL. That would be a miscarriage of justice and short-sighted in the extreme. The Oilers need to get serious with this roster, and that may mean trading Mangiapane and sending Janmark to the AHL.
Time has run out on underperforming veterans. Too little has been delivered by too many for too long. Savoie being sent out suggests the Oilers remain committed to veterans who have rewarded the organization with miserable results all season. Savoie should be part of the future, while Samanski could be a real answer for this organization.
The roster movement in the days to come may provide answers, but the first blush moves (Savoie and Samanski both assigned to Bakersfield) run counter to on-ice results.