What happens to the teams who top the Premier League at Christmas?

In the Premier League era, leading at Christmas has not always meant getting the job done in May.

Those that have topped the table on December 25 have gone on to be crowned champions in 17 of the past 33 seasons, meaning just under half of the league leaders at this stage have been pipped to the post.

Arsenal supporters know that only too well. In 2022-23, they spent 248 days top and still finished behind Manchester City. Indeed, Arsenal have been top of the Premier League at Christmas and not won the title on four previous occasions.

So what does it mean to be top of the table at Christmas in the Premier League?

For Arsenal, being top at Christmas has not translated into titles. In their three Premier League-winning seasons, 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04, they came from behind. In 1997-98, they were 13 points adrift at Christmas and still finished champions, the biggest deficit any eventual Premier League winner has overturned.

In 2022-23, they led by five points at Christmas. City won the title by five. In 2023-24, the gap was six points with a game in hand. City won by two.

Liverpool had also led at Christmas four times without winning the title, until 2019-20. In Klopp’s fifth season, they turned that lead into the trophy and finished on 99 points.

Klopp arrived in October 2015 and needed four full seasons, plus major recruitment, before Liverpool could outpace Guardiola’s City. The breakthrough came after a 97-point near-miss in 2018-19. Arteta is at a comparable stage, in his fifth full campaign and with two near-misses behind him, so the question is whether this squad is ready to sustain it through the run-in.

Manchester City’s recent record makes pessimism feel rational.

In the five most recent seasons in which the Christmas leaders have been caught, City have been the team doing the catching. More than half of their nine league titles have come from positions other than first at Christmas. In 2020-21, they sat eighth at Christmas and still won the league. No other side in Premier League history has lifted the trophy from that far back.

City currently sit second, two points behind Arsenal, with 37 points from 17 games. A seven-game winning streak has taken them back into their stride, and Pep Guardiola’s sides have historically improved in the second half of the season. He expects this campaign to follow the same pattern.

In 2022-23, City won all but two of their final 15 games to overturn Arsenal’s lead. The following season, they were even more relentless: 18 wins and three draws from their final 21 games, including nine consecutive victories to close out the campaign.

Guardiola’s squad depth, tactical adjustments and ability to peak when it matters most have made City subject-matter experts in late-season surges.

But history, for all its weight, is not destiny. This Arsenal side bears little resemblance to its predecessors.

The defensive transformation is the most striking change. Arsenal are conceding 0.59 goals per 90 minutes this season, their best rate under Arteta. In 2022-23, the figure was 1.13. Last season, it was 0.76. They have kept nine clean sheets in 17 games.

Their performances in Europe back up the improvement. Arsenal have won six out of six in the Champions League, conceding just one goal in that run.

Arsenal’s post-shot expected goals against is down at 0.50 per 90, the lowest figure of Arteta’s reign. That is the clearest sign yet that their defensive record is built to last because opponents are being kept away from high-quality chances. David Raya’s save percentage is 73 per cent, solid rather than spectacular, which supports the idea that Arsenal are limiting danger through organisation and discipline.

Can Gabriel and Saliba give Arsenal enough defensive stability to get the title over the line? (Stuart MacFarlane/Getty Images)

Opta’s expected points model has Arsenal projected for 82 points, with City on 77. Arsenal are not only top of the league table right now, but they also lead on expected points.

City travel to Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day. A win would take them top, at least until Arsenal face Brighton at the Emirates later that day. Arsenal will know the pressure a City result applies.

Christmas does not decide the title, but it does start to show which teams can hold their level through the winter schedule, when rotation and injuries stop being theoretical.

Arsenal have never converted a Christmas lead into a Premier League title, and City have overturned deficits before. This season, Arsenal can lean on their defence. They are conceding few good chances, and the level has held despite injuries. That gives Arteta more flexibility in the weeks when the performance is not perfect.