Wes Streeting, health secretary and a potential Labour leadership contender, has attacked an “excuses culture” at the heart of government, while another cabinet minister said there was a “50:50” chance Sir Keir Starmer could be toppled as UK prime minister by the end of the year.
Streeting told a conference in London it was time ministers got a grip and stopped making mistakes, while Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor and another potential leadership rival, used the event to set out elements of his own manifesto.
The conference at the Institute for Government think-tank on Tuesday took place against a backdrop of speculation that Starmer could face a leadership challenge in 2026, with ministers frequently discussing how long he can survive.
One cabinet minister said: “What’s happening at the moment is extraordinarily bad. We can’t just pretend otherwise.” Another cabinet member, when asked if Starmer would still be in Number 10 in December, replied: “50:50.”
Starmer on Monday attempted to rally MPs, saying that this year would be one of “change and renewal”, and both he and chancellor Rachel Reeves argue that an improving UK economy will boost voters’ mood.
But with dire poll ratings and a daunting set of elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English councils looming in May, the Labour Party is awash with talk of whether — or when — a coup against Starmer might materialise.
Allies of Starmer are eyeing Streeting nervously, and the health secretary used his IfG speech to attack what he claimed was a view in government that the Whitehall machine was incapable of delivering change.
“This excuses culture does the centre-left no favours,” he said. “If we tell the public that we can’t make anything work, then why on earth would they vote to keep us in charge?”
Allies of Streeting denied he was criticising Starmer, instead pointing to arguments made by the prime minister’s former director of strategy, Paul Ovenden, who criticised the “stakeholder state”.
But the comments were seen as a sign of frustration with Starmer, who has accused some civil servants of being “comfortable in the tepid bath of managed decline” and who told MPs last month about his “frustration” at trying to push through reforms.
He told the House of Commons liaison committee in December: “Every time I go to pull a lever there are a whole bunch of regulations, consultations, arm’s-length bodies, that mean the action from pulling the lever to delivery is longer than I think it ought to be, which is among the reasons I want to cut down on regulation generally and within government.”
But Streeting on Tuesday said: “There’s no point complaining about the wonky wheel if you’re letting the trolley have a mind of its own, instead of steering it towards the destination you’re after.”
He also referred to government mistakes and U-turns: “In the NHS, we have an initiative called ‘GIRFT’ — Getting It Right First Time,” he said. “That should be our new year’s resolution for 2026. Let’s try and get it right first time.”
Streeting, on the Blairite right, was identified by Number 10 aides in November as plotting for the leadership, which he strongly denied. He said he was “a faithful”, in a reference to the BBC reality show The Traitors.
But some Streeting supporters believe he should make a move, even before the May elections, giving rivals less time to get their campaigns together. “There is a question of whether he goes before then,” said one.
But triggering a coup is complicated under Labour rules: a total of 81 Labour MPs would need to back a challenger, and the first person to move against Starmer could be badly damaged by such an act of disloyalty.
Nevertheless, the mood is febrile, with ministers particularly lamenting Starmer’s ministerial reshuffle last year, which left many bruised and angry. “We’ve gone through a catastrophic series of mis-steps,” said one cabinet minister.
Another minister said: “I’m not convinced any of the options are better than Keir, but we are so unpopular at the moment I’ve come to the conclusion it’s worth rolling the dice.”
Burnham, who flaunted his ambitions to become prime minister ahead of the Labour conference in September, is also seen as a likely leadership contender, even though he is not an MP.
Speculation persists that a friendly Labour MP will step down to allow the Manchester mayor and former cabinet minister to contest a by-election, possibly to take place alongside the May elections.
Burnham on Tuesday ranged far beyond his views on development in the North West, including calling for MPs to be elected by proportional representation and an end to the whipping system, which he said made MPs “rubber stamp long-held departmental positions”.
He also called on Reeves to go beyond giving financial help to pubs — the subject of an imminent U-turn — and to “rebalance taxation so that we help the high street” rather than online retailers.
Burnham, who is on the Labour left, has told colleagues he is talking to energy secretary Ed Miliband about the party’s situation. Miliband’s allies have dismissed as “nonsense” suggestions that the former Labour leader wanted to become chancellor.
Other names discussed for the leadership are former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Shabana Mahmood, education secretary Bridget Phillipson and Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell.
Starmer’s allies insist he is not going anywhere. “There’s no way he’s going to go of his own accord,” said one cabinet member, arguing that the prime minister saw the elections in May as unrepresentative of how the country might vote in a general election. The next must be held by summer 2029.
His team also points out that any leadership contest would be destabilising for the economy, just at a moment when a modicum of stability has been restored after the chaotic build-up to November’s Budget.
“Our country is moving in the right direction,” Starmer told MPs on Monday. “Waiting lists are falling, wages are rising faster than prices, inflation is now under control and coming down — six interest rate cuts, a huge difference for families and businesses.”
Starmer’s supporters warn that a leadership contest could lead to candidates tacking to the left to woo MPs and party members, with the risk that financial markets could be spooked by talk of more public spending and wealth taxes.
“It would be very surprising if the candidates weren’t asked within two days of a contest starting whether they’d stick to Rachel’s fiscal rules,” said one ally of the prime minister.
Many Labour MPs believe a challenge will not be mounted in 2026, especially if the prime minister can raise his game and the economy and opinion polls start to improve.
On Tuesday, Starmer’s cabinet met to decide a plan for 2026, in what was described by Labour officials afterwards as “a very useful, open and extended political discussion”. Keeping such views behind closed doors will be a big test for the prime minister in the coming months.