Though they’re ultimately two different lenses, sports betting can provide some smart intel for fantasy football and how players are expected to perform — after all, sportsbooks do an incredible amount of research to land at their lines. Each week, I serve all NFL gaming audiences by examining a handful of under-started fantasy options using BetMGM prop lines as a backdrop. Fade or follow? That’s up to you!
Below are Week 14 props. I’ll track the results of my predictions over the season (including those below).
All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
Season record: 30-23, +3.85 units
C.J. Stroud, Texans, QB
Matchup: at Chiefs | 10% started
BetAlytics prediction: 1.14 passing touchdowns
OVER: ‘Tis the season for family, friends and checked out NFL defenses growing even more mentally unengaged. Once considered an upstanding unit, Kansas City’s secondary has definitely exited the building. Since Week 10, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unspectaculars are No. 28 in dropback EPA defense, one spot lower than the sorrowful Bengals. The dynasty appears to be very much over. In their past four games, the Chiefs have allowed seven total QB touchdowns, 8.04 pass yards per attempt and 267.3 pass yards per game. It’s undeniable that Stroud has been largely pedestrian when healthy this year. He checks in at a bland No. 34 in adjusted completion percentage and has spun two or more touchdowns in only three of nine games.
Fantasy Forecast: With Kansas City sputtering and the Texans needing to keep pace with Indy and Jacksonville in the AFC South, Stroud should reward his dice rollers at Arrowhead. His primary weapon of choice, Nico Collins, has a splendid matchup on paper. Drake Maye managers searching for a one-week stopgap should consider the former Buckeye’s services. His final line may not wow the masses, but Stroud scoring 18+ fantasy points is entirely achievable under the primetime lights.
Fearless Forecast (Brad’s Projection): 2 passing touchdowns
Kyle Monangai, Bears, RB
Matchup: at Packers | 23% started
BetAlytics prediction: 36.5% TD chance
OVER: It’s been 40 years since Jim McMahon, Walter Payton, Steve McMichael, Mike Singletary and other Bears legends strutted their stuff on “The Super Bowl Shuffle.” Though Chicago made a Super Bowl appearance in 2006, football fandom in one of America’s great cities has largely remained dormant. Until now. Shirtless head coach celebrations, racking wins and a No.1 standing atop the NFC have the Windy City blowing ecstatically too and fro. The one-two punch of D’Andre Swift and Monangai is a major reason why. The seventh-round rookie has moved chains and bodies with considerable frequency. An ideal fit in Ben Johnson’s zone-based system, the one-cut back has tallied an eye-popping 60.2% of his yards after initial contact. Averaging an impressive 5.3 yards per touch, the bruising rookie is made for December football. Most importantly for the prop above, he’s scored in four straight games and has amassed 30 red zone touches this season.
Fantasy Forecast: This scribe is a massive Monangai. Dad jokes aside, he’s the epitome of “flexy sexy” in 12-team and deeper leagues. Green Bay is a formidable foe — the Packers rank No. 6 in rush EPA defense entering Week 14 action — but Matt LaFleur’s fellas aren’t some impenetrable Vecna-erected wall. This season, they’ve allowed seven RB touchdowns. With the Bears’ offensive line cooking, the pride of Piscataway punctures the end zone yet again en route to an RB top-25 week.
Fearless Forecast (Brad’s Projection): 1 TD
Devaughn Vele, Saints, WR
Matchup: at Bucs | 2% started
BetAlytics prediction: 27.56 receiving yards
OVER: Peppermint bark, admittedly, is this writer’s greatest weakness. Purchased from Costco, it’s continuously chosen every time the pantry door swings open. Oh, the shame… Wagering on wide receivers who face the Bucs is equally irresistible. Hola, Vele! The former Bronco booked a breakout performance in Week 13. Seeing action on a season-high 75.9% of team snaps, he caught all eight of Tyler Shough’s targets, recorded a season-best 93 yards and scored his second TD of the fall. With 15 total targets over his past two contests, Vele’s role is rapidly growing. When you’re 6-foot-4 and run a 4.47 40-yard dash, it’s easy to understand why Shough’s confidence in Vele has soared. Barely a radar blip in his first encounter with Tampa in Week 8, the Saints’ emerging WR2 should have a commanding presence in the rematch. When it comes to defending the pass, the Bucs — No. 15 in dropback EPA defense this season — aren’t exactly a group of marauding swashbucklers.
Fantasy Forecast: With four teams absurdly on bye in a season-on-the-brink week, needy managers with everything on the line in challenging formats will have to get creative. Vele is a definite WR3/FLEX player of interest in 12-team and deeper formats. His sudden surge, combined with a mano-a-mano matchup versus CB Zyon McCollum, raises the intrigue. In 11 games, Tampa’s coverman has allowed a 109.4 passer rating and the 18th-most yards of any corner. Chuck a Hail Mary.
Fearess Forecast (Brad’s Projection): 58 receiving yards
Brenton Strange, Jaguars, TE
Matchup: vs. Colts | 41% started
BetAlytics prediction: 25.43 receiving yards
OVER: “Stranger Things” is undoubtedly top of mind, whether attributed to the Netflix smash hit or Duvall’s plus-sized du jour. For the first-place Jaguars, Strange has become one of Trevor Lawrence’s most leaned-on vertical options. A dirty worker mostly between the hashmarks, he’s received steady feedings from the modern-day “Blonde Bomber.” Netting a noteworthy 4.7 targets per game, Strange has topped 40 receiving yards in five of seven games. Most outstanding, he’s top-10 among TEs in deep target share (16.7%), catchable target rate (87.9%), yards per route run (2.10) and yards per reception (12.2). For those who don’t speak numbers, Strange is an accomplished separator whom Lawrence often finds with ease. Indy may rank a respectable No. 13 in dropback EPA defense, but they’ve struggled bottling up pass-catching tight ends. In 12 games, the Colts have allowed 6.6 receptions, 72.1 receiving yards per game and five touchdowns to the position. Hellfire indeed.
Fantasy Forecast: Entering the week, the Colts check in at No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Strange sizzling and given his week-to-week consistency when healthy, he’s likely to land inside the TE top 10 in Week 14. In a matchup with enormous AFC South stakes, he sports a five-catch, 40-yard floor. Keep in mind, seven TEs have scored at least 10 fantasy points against Circle City’s Colts this season. Get wonderfully weird.
Fearless Forecast (Brad’s Projection): 48 receiving yards
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders, RB
Matchup: vs. Broncos | 93% started
BetAlytics prediction: 61.87 rushing and receiving yards
UNDER: Up there with the constant gray days and bitter cold temps this time of year in northern latitudes is a matchup versus the Denver Broncos. It’s unfavorable. It’s unwanted. Most importantly, with your fantasy season on the line, it’s completely inopportune. In a 10-7 Thursday night exercise in drudgery Week 10, the Raiders-Broncos matchup set football back approximately 75 years. In the monotonous affair, Jeanty did touch the rock 22 times, but managed only 63 total yards. Yawn. He salvaged an otherwise disappointing output with a rushing TD, but he’ll likely need another end zone splash to post a meaningful result in the rematch. Denver enters Week 14 ranked No. 5 in EPA per play defense. Most denying, they’ve given up only 4.51 yards per touch to RBs this season. Overall, only four RBs have crossed the combined yardage threshold required in 13 games. Most suffocating, the last rusher to reach 80 total yards was way back in Week 7. In the trenches and short field, they’ve really clamped down.
Fantasy Forecast: Managers who spent first-round draft capital on the rookie are likely regretting it. He’s had his moments, but largely a RB2 in 12-team formats, the youngster has underwhelmed. His yards after contact per attempt (3.03) and missed tackles production (42) clearly show he’s performed well on a per-touch basis. However, the Raiders’ general sickly nature has stunted his surface numbers. Given Denver’s No. 1 seed motivations, expect more of the same.