The story in college basketball this week?
Michigan — which has steamrolled ranked opponents by 30-plus, looking every bit like the team to beat this season — actually lost, and to a Wisconsin team with no prior top-25 wins. We’ll get to the rest of your questions, but we have to start this week’s mailbag with the Wolverines:
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
How concerned are you long term about Michigan’s rough week? Do you think it’s a fluke that will help them refocus or something more indicative of regression? — Matthew L.
It feels more like something that will help Michigan refocus. Coach Dusty May said after the loss to Wisconsin — which came four days after a narrow win at Penn State — that he didn’t think Michigan had played well in four games. As dominant as Michigan was for about a month, complacency was bound to creep in. Look at the Oklahoma City Thunder’s season. It happens.
Wisconsin had the perfect game plan, taking advantage of center Aday Mara in drop coverage with a pick-and-pop big, and shot lights out. Michigan slipped in its defensive focus and was sloppy with switches and in its scrambles. There were also a few questionable calls down the stretch that could have flipped the game where it looked like Michigan’s bigs went vertical and fouls were called.
It added up for the perfect storm for an upset, and teams with an elite guard operating in ball screens and bigs who can make 3s could continue to give Michigan issues, but the season-long numbers are still better than anyone else’s. Michigan’s offensive execution down the stretch wasn’t great, but the offense was still really good for most of that game. In the long run, it could be exactly what May needed to get his team’s attention and get back the level of focus and desire to bury teams that it had in late November and most of December. The road trip this week at Washington and Oregon feels like great timing. A chance to bond on the road and get some swagger back. — CJ Moore
Why, after its loss to Wisconsin (a Quad 2 loss), is Michigan still the favorite in the NET rankings? — Damien M.
Every computer model, including the NET, factors in efficiency on both ends, and Michigan had the second-best efficiency margin in the country behind Iowa State going into Tuesday’s games. Strength of schedule also matters, and according to KenPom, Michigan has played the fifth-best schedule while Arizona’s ranks 47th. The Wildcats also had a smaller efficiency margin.
The gap was wider before the Wisconsin game, so while Michigan didn’t drop, Arizona is getting closer. — Moore
Curious who you view as top five out of the mid-major conferences, in terms of who could actually win an NCAA Tournament game or two? We can skip Gonzaga, who is a given. — Phil T.
If you’re counting the Mountain West, Phil — which I don’t count as a true mid-major — then Utah State would be high on my list. The Aggies made the NCAA Tournament last season, are getting a career year from Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt transfer MJ Collins, and turn opponents over at a top-10 rate nationally, a common formula for mid-major upsets in March. (I also won’t mention Miami of Ohio, since we dedicated a whole question to the 18-0(!) Redhawks last week.) But for true mid-majors who could win a game in the Big Dance, four who stand out:
Saint Louis (15-1, 3-0 Atlantic 10): The Billikens have one of the most fun offenses in the country: a true up-tempo, pace-and-space attack that can beat teams in transition and on the offensive glass. The name you may know here is former Indiana State star Robbie Avila — or “Larry Blurred,” for those who remember — who followed coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis in the summer of 2024. But Avila’s passing and 3-point shooting are just one reason the Billikens are 15-1 entering Wednesday’s matchup with Fordham. Amari McCottry gives Schertz a 6-foot-6 lead guard who can beat his man off the dribble, while five different players are making at least 38 percent of their 3s. It’s a fun recipe for a Cinderella.
Paulius Murauskas leads a Saint Mary’s team that has reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament in three of the last four years. (Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
Saint Mary’s (17-2, 6-0 West Coast): Cheating? Maybe, since the Gaels have made four straight NCAA Tournaments. But while Saint Mary’s doesn’t have quite the same caliber of defense it has in years past, it’s still one of the biggest mid-major teams. The Gaels rank 13th nationally in length, per KenPom, with two 7-footers who set the tone for a top-30 rebounding group. Plus, any defensive slippage is offset by something that should pay dividends come March: Coach Randy Bennett’s team is the best free-throw shooting team in America, making 82.9 percent of its attempts from the charity stripe. Might come in handy in a close first-round game, huh?
Akron (13-4, 4-1 MAC): Even after narrowly losing to MAC counterpart Miami (Ohio) earlier this month, the Zips — with a top-20 offense in all of Division I — deserve a shoutout. Akron makes just shy of 40 percent of its 3s and over 60 percent of its 2s, and rarely gets the ball stolen, which bodes well in March. Senior guard Tavari Johnson is one of the best mid-major scorers in the country, at 19.8 points per game, while fellow homegrown senior Amani Lyles gives coach John Groce a legitimate stretch big with passing chops. Akron has won the MAC three of the last four seasons, too, making it the rare mid-major team with consistent NCAA Tournament experience.
VCU (11-6, 2-2 Atlantic 10): Coach Phil Martelli Jr.’s first VCU team has found out recently how tough life in the A-10 is, dropping consecutive games to league leaders Saint Louis and George Mason. (A multi-bid A-10, anyone?) VCU’s defense is built to run teams off the 3-point line, which could make for an interesting first-round matchup against some of the sport’s more 3-point-heavy, analytically inclined teams. Off the bench, sophomore Terrence Hill is one of the most efficient offensive players in America, making almost 65 percent of his 2s and 42 percent of his 3s. And while the Rams couldn’t close against Utah State or NC State in the nonconference, losing both games by a combined 9 points proves VCU can compete with other tournament-caliber competition. — Brendan Marks
Fact: The Big 12 is the best basketball conference. What’s different with this season’s Big 12 compared to last season’s and what hasn’t changed? And more specifically, with Kansas? — James S.
I think it’s a coin flip between the Big 12 and Big Ten, but the Big 12 is definitely better this season at the top than it was a year ago. Last season, I’d argue Houston was the only real national title contender. But this Big 12 arguably has four title contenders (Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and BYU) and two others (Kansas and Texas Tech) who I could see getting hot and making a Final Four.
Those six teams currently rank Nos. 2, 4, 7, 12, 17 and 23 at KenPom, and the Big Ten has six in the top 22 and the current No. 1 (Michigan), so there’s a real debate between the two leagues. But this is as good and as deep a top tier as the Big 12 has ever had. This is also as talented as the league has ever been. In Sam Vecenie’s latest big board, the top two picks (AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson) and 20 of the top 65 play on Big 12 teams.
With Kansas, the difference between this year’s team and last year is hope and a lottery pick. Last year’s team was old, peaked early because of its experience and didn’t really improve as the season progressed. As Tuesday’s emphatic win over Iowa State showed, there’s still hope because it is such a new team and it has one of the most talented players in college basketball in Peterson. His season has been strange thus far, but it’s possible in a month he’ll be 100 percent healthy, able to finish games, and KU will develop some chemistry. It’s also possible that one of the two guys who were recruited to be shooters (Kohl Rosario and Jayden Dawson) start making shots. There are issues with the roster, particularly the frontcourt depth, but if the Jayhawks can stay healthy, they should look like a different team in a month or so. — Moore
How far can Carolina’s frontcourt take it in March? Caleb Wilson and Henry Veesaar are having stellar seasons, but the backcourt has looked inconsistent at best on both offense and defense all year. Derek Dixon looked like he might be ready to take on a bigger role, but he’s tapered off considerably in minutes these past few games. If it is to reach its ceiling as a team, who has to step up? — G.S.
I’ve been grappling with this same question the last two weeks, because UNC’s perimeter — outside of senior guard Seth Trimble — hasn’t been good or consistent enough lately to inspire long-term faith. Wilson and Veesaar are terrific, but the way to beat the Tar Heels right now is to get those two (and especially Veesaar) in foul trouble, and force the Tar Heels’ guards and wings to beat you, because they haven’t shown the consistent ability to do so.
Coach Hubert Davis has a real dilemma on his hands with Kyan Evans and Luka Bogavac. Those two were supposed to be among UNC’s best 3-point shooters — but right now, they’re both under 32 percent from deep. If they aren’t giving you shooting, it’s hard to play them significant minutes — especially Evans, who is a fine playmaker, but who also has been a defensive liability against quality competition. I also thought Dixon was on the verge of cracking the lineup more substantially, but that hasn’t materialized since his breakout against Kentucky.
It’s a question of what UNC wants to be. To me, this team’s defensive potential is higher than its offensive potential, which is why I’m cool with continuing to start Jarin Stevenson at the 3, forming one of the longest frontcourt combinations in the sport. Trimble’s a quality point-of-attack defender, too, beyond being the team’s best probing guard. So who’s the answer next to Trimble? Jonathan Powell is intriguing as a 6-foot-6, 3-and-D wing, but that probably puts too much pressure on Trimble as a primary ballhandler. A lot of fans are clamoring for Dixon, but the truth is, he rates in the bottom 10 percent nationally as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, per Synergy, while only being an OK defender.
After his breakout against Wake Forest, I think the guy I’d like to see get more time, wildly enough, is Jaydon Young. He can shoot, he can handle a little, he guards his tail off, and while he’s never been particularly efficient offensively, he at least can stretch the floor without depleting UNC’s second unit. But there’s no neat answer, which is why I’m a little less optimistic about the Tar Heels’ future than I was a month ago. — Marks
In Iowa’s four games against top-50 KenPom defenses, Bennett Stirtz is averaging 12 points per game and shooting a shade over 30 percent from the floor. It’s no surprise Iowa is 1-3 in those games. So, how can Iowa get Stirtz going against stronger defenses? — Aaron M.
There’s probably something to be learned for Iowa from the seven-minute stretch in the Illinois game in the second half when Stirtz was on the bench and Iowa outscored the Illini 18-10. That’s the best Iowa played in that game, and Stirtz’s teammates played with more confidence and the ball movement zipped around the floor during that stretch. Sometimes with a great player, there’s a tendency to try to get him the ball constantly and wait for him to make something happen.
Getting Stirtz going in these games might be less about him and more about the other Hawkeyes playing with more confidence and aggression. Illinois was aggressive in the gaps when Stirtz had the ball and constantly had multiple players focused on him, whether he was on ball or off. Once the other Hawkeyes can take advantage of that overattention, the defense will adjust and opportunities will arise for Stirtz. Coach Ben McCollum is one of the best offensive minds in the game. I’ll bet he figures out some solutions. — Moore
Auburn’s Elyjah Freeman has been one of the best transfers up from the Division II or III levels this season. (John Reed / Imagn Images)
What are some of the best transfers this season that have come from outside the Division I ranks? My pick might be Justin Allen at Green Bay. — Lpavlounis
Your submission of Allen (12.8 points per game as a transfer from DIII Carnegie Mellon) is a good one, but a few others who stand out:
Elyjah Freeman, Auburn: Freeman, a 6-foot-8 wing, has started nine games for the Tigers after arriving this summer from DII Lincoln Memorial. Given Auburn’s previous success with DII transfers — both Chad Baker-Mazara and Chaney Johnson were key contributors on last season’s Final Four team — it’s no surprise that Freeman is averaging 10.8 points and 4.9 rebounds in Steven Pearl’s first season leading the Tigers.
AJ Rohosy and Jeremy Dent-Smith, Stanford: Two for the price of one! Rohosy spent two seasons at Washington State before dropping down to DIII Claremont-Mudd-Scripps for a year, while Dent-Smith led Cal State Dominguez Hills to a DII national championship appearance last season. Combined, they average 14.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists for a feisty Cardinal team that just beat Louisville.
Keith Palek III, Missouri State: After four seasons at DII California (Pa.), Palek fielded widespread mid-major attention last offseason as a do-it-all 6-foot-9 forward. He leads the Bears in points (17.5), rebounds (7.1) and assists (3.5) per game, serving as coach Cuonzo Martin’s leading man while Missouri State attempts to win Conference USA over Liberty.
Jadin Booth, Samford: Samford has fallen off in its first season without longtime coach Bucky McMillan, now at Texas A&M — but not because of Booth, who played his freshman season at DI Omaha in 2020-21 before transferring to DII Florida Southern for four seasons. Booth is one of just 43 DI players averaging at least 20 points per game, and one of just 13 to do so at 6-foot-2 or shorter.
Xavier Edmonds, TCU: A three-star, top-250 recruit out of high school, the 6-foot-8 Edmonds has been a force for the Horned Frogs after two standout seasons at Salt Lake Community College (Utah). Edmonds has started 15 of TCU’s 16 games, averaging 10.4 points and 4.2 rebounds for a team that almost beat both Michigan and Kansas. — Marks