No person has been closer to Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine than Andriy Yermak — and no absence may matter more.
The president and his powerful chief of staff literally lived and worked together inside the hulking Ukrainian presidential compound in central Kyiv since February 24 2022 — the day Russian forces began their full-scale invasion of the country and sparked the biggest conflict in Europe since 1945.
It was Yermak who loomed large over Zelenskyy’s shoulder in the president’s defiant video message on the first night of the invasion, which inspired a nation to take up arms in defence of its independence.
Since then they have been inseparable. Their mornings would often begin with a workout together in the president’s basement gym, Yermak previously told the Financial Times.
To Oleh Rybachuk, chief of staff to former Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko, the men had become so close that they had “become one”.
“Talk about Zelenskyy and you’re talking about Yermak. Talk about Yermak and it’s Zelenskyy,” Rybachuk told the FT in July.
But on Friday, Yermak tendered his resignation amid a widening corruption scandal that has embroiled the president’s inner circle and shaken the confidence of the Ukrainian public in their leadership.
It could hardly come at a more pivotal moment, with Russian forces intensifying their attacks on the country as the US presses Zelenskyy to sign an imperfect peace deal to end the war.
Zelenskyy, by accepting the resignation, in effect finalised the departure of his right-hand man and “closest soratnik” — a comrade or brother-in-arms, in the words of foreign minister Andriy Sybiha.
Together the two men amassed unprecedented influence and control in Ukraine, using martial law to exert an ever-tightening grip on power. With Yermak’s departure, Zelenskyy’s leadership and the way the country is run are expected to enter a new chapter.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst, described the departure as “a mini revolution”. “For Zelenskyy it was a painful but unavoidable decision, there was just no other way out.”
In Ukraine’s wartime power structure, Yermak often acted more like an unelected vice-president than a simple chief of staff. In every way, he was the second-most powerful man in Ukraine, and — according to some Ukrainian officials and western diplomats in Kyiv — in many situations the de facto decision maker.
Over nearly four years in office, Yermak — a former intellectual property rights lawyer turned film producer with several B movies to his credit — centralised diplomatic, military and political decision-making in a way that no other non-elected official had ever done in Ukraine and few in modern European politics.
From directing peace talks to shaping Ukraine’s foreign policy and even selecting cabinet officials and influencing military operations — sometimes to disastrous effect, such as in the case of the bloody battle of Bakhmut, which saw some of Ukraine’s strongest units decimated — Yermak stood at the centre of a system shaped in his image.
Without Yermak, said Fesenko, “Zelenskyy’s influence will diminish”.
“Not because Zelenskyy was influential thanks to Yermak, it was the opposite — Yermak was influential thanks to Zelenskyy,” he said. “But Yermak’s departure and the corruption scandals weaken Zelenskyy.”
Yermak’s exit could signal a shift away from the concentration of authority that has characterised much of Ukraine’s post-Soviet politics and especially the Zelenskyy-Yermak era.
Yermak ruthlessly discarded ministers who became too popular or independent minded, among them the former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba and ex-minister of infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov. Opponents and critics ran the risk of a secret service investigation, judicial procedure or vilification on anonymous social media accounts widely believed to be under his control.
But in the near term the transition is likely to be difficult, as Zelenskyy navigates internal divisions and a deepening corruption scandal plaguing his close allies.
“The scandal isn’t exhausted yet,” said Rostyslav Pavlenko, a lawmaker with the party of former president and Zelenskyy rival Petro Poroshenko.
“The problem is not with a few people, but with the system they’ve built,” Pavlenko said.
But Zelenskyy has so far resisted the idea of shifting away from the concentration of power. But in the long run, say some observers, it could benefit the president. William Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, said the move could “strengthen Zelenskyy both domestically but also internationally”.
“I think Yermak was recognised as competent and influential but controversial,” he said. “Zelenskyy has some young competent people who can step in and take Yermak’s place, possibly by dividing up the domestic portfolio and the international.”
Taylor suggested Zelenskyy’s charismatic adviser for strategic affairs Oleksandr Kamyshin, who previously served as minister of strategic industries, as one option. Another good candidate, he said, would be Mykhailo Fedorov, the first deputy prime minister and the country’s minister of digital transformation.
Both men have years of experience in defence production and are widely respected inside and outside Ukraine as competent managers. Fedorov was also the brainchild behind Zelenskyy’s innovative presidential campaign in 2019.
But there was also speculation in Kyiv on Friday evening that Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who was appointed in July to head the government, could be asked by the president to serve as his new head of office.
“I strongly support it. It would be the right decision, exactly what you do to get out of a crisis,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former minister of economy, who is a supporter of Zelenskyy.
In his time as chief of staff, Yermak instilled fear in those around him. “Everyone’s future and fortunes are determined by Andriy Yermak,” one government minister told last summer.
Even after his departure, Yermak’s considerable sway could still be felt. Many Ukrainian officials, former officials, lawmakers and political operatives still declined to speak on the record about him, worried that Yermak would remain close to the president.
“I don’t want to dance on his grave,” said one. “Especially before making sure it is one.”