Oscar voting is about to come to an end, and the question about which films and performances will dominate this year’s Academy Award nominations is still up in the air. The Variety Awards Circuit Podcast Roundtable team gathered to dissect the state of the race, how the Golden Globes results affected voting, and whether any snubs or surprises are lurking in the wings.
After kicking off the conversation gushing about Apple TV’s hit drama series “Pluribus” with Rhea Seehorn, we got into the night at the Globes. “One Battle After Another” led the night with four wins, including best picture (comedy or musical). At the same time, Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet” took home a high-profile award for best picture (drama) and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” walked away with the box office and cinematic achievement category.
“I went 25 for 28, and it feels so anticlimactic,” Clayton Davis, chief awards editor, said. “You could have been ‘Joe Schmo’ from the street and predict the globes and nail like 85 percent of them.”
The podcasters agreed that the only real shocks came from Michelle Williams winning for “Dying for Sex” on the TV side and Teyana Taylor’s supporting actress victory for “One Battle After Another.” And if those are considered surprises, we shouldn’t be too hard on the group for following the appropriate tea leaves of the fall and winter awards season.
In addition to delivering what the group agreed was the “speech of the night,” Jenelle Riley, associate features editor, also called Taylor the “star of the BAFTA tea party,” which took place the day before the Golden Globes.
The group also analyzed how both female acting categories, have a potential for “fluidity” between who makes the cut and who does not. Some of those discussed include Ariana Grande’s chances of a supporting actress nomination for “Wicked: For Good,” and uncertainty about whether both Emma Stone and Kate Hudson could secure best actress nominations for “Bugonia” and “Song Sung Blue.”
And there are the populist choices that could be lurking within the fray.
Apple’s high-stakes race car drama “F1” is feeling more like a best picture contender by the day. Jazz Tangcay, senior artisans editor, noted the film’s packed Q&A events and strong guild support, while Michael Schneider, executive TV editor, who has watched the film twice this year, praised it as “a classic sports movie” with “all the beats that you want.”
Tangcay also noted that Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s cinematography on “Sinners” seems like a slam-dunk for a nomination, calling it “by far the best of the year” and predicting the Filipino cinematographer will make history with her nomination. However, she does acknowledge that “Train Dreams” by Brazilian Adolpho Veloso is a potential candidate for the win.
The group also discussed potential surprises in makeup and hairstyling, such as the unibrow and acne-detailed “Marty Supreme” and the potential for legendary musician Billy Joel to nab his first career nomination for his documentary “Billy Joel Should be Dead.”
Oscar nominations will be announced Jan. 22, with the ceremony scheduled for Mar. 15.
Variety’s “Awards Circuit” podcast, hosted by Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay, Emily Longeretta, Jenelle Riley and Michael Schneider, who also produces, is your one-stop source for lively conversations about the best in film and television. Each episode, “Awards Circuit” features interviews with top film and TV talent and creatives, discussions and debates about awards races and industry headlines, and much more. Subscribe via Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or anywhere you download podcasts.