UFC 325 predictions, odds: Alexander Volkanovski, Diego Lopes rematch for featherweight title

We head Down Under for UFC 325, a fun 14-fight slate that features Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes in the main event, along with four “Road to UFC” finales to begin the undercard.

I’ll give you my breakdowns for the main event and co-main event, along with another write-up for one of those RTUFC matchups. If there are any other fights you want to chat about, leave a comment below!

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

We have a rematch for the featherweight title between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.

Volkanovski’s last fight came against Lopes in April 2025, when he won by unanimous decision and proved to be the deserving champion at that time. Lopes is coming off the TKO finish over Jean Silva in September.

In that first fight, I was on Volkanovski because he rated out as the superior technical fighter and the superior round winner, which proved to be correct. Lopes did his best to hunt Volkanovski down and hurt him, even knocking Volkanovski down in Round 2, but Volkanovski still outlanded him 142-59 at distance and outwrestled him as well.

One of my biggest gripes with Lopes is that he’s an elite submission grappler who cannot wrestle. He only lands 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and didn’t attempt a single takedown against Volkanovski in the first fight. However, in his last win against Silva, Lopes landed three takedowns on four attempts, and if he wrestled more urgently against Volkanovski in the rematch, I’d consider him more of a threat.

Volkanovski landed one takedown on 11 attempts and didn’t consolidate much top control. He may be able to wrestle a bit again, but I’m not sold it’s the easiest path to victory.

Where Volkanovski is clearly better is at distance, using his technique to kick at Lopes and jab him. He outlanded Lopes 136-49 to the head last time.

Now in the rematch, Volkanovski is only -145 to win on BetMGM. This is a difficult fight to assess because if you’re betting based on data, which is ideal, you’re going to find Volkanovski as the obvious value target. Betting on him to win and betting on him to win by decision at +150 make sense.

My concern only comes with his durability. We’ve seen Volkanovski brutally KO’d in his last two losses, and if you include his most recent win against Lopes, he’s been knocked down in three consecutive fights. At some point, he’ll get hurt again, and I wouldn’t be that surprised to see it come from Lopes.

I have to pick Volkanovski to win here, but it’s hard to feel extremely confident given the high-variance nature of striking exchanges, and the likely looming end to Volkanovski’s championship reign.

Dan Hooker vs. Benoît Saint Denis

The most exciting fight on the card should be the co-main event between Dan Hooker and Benoît Saint Denis.

The matchup dynamic is fairly straightforward in that Saint Denis is a super aggressive, pace grappler who has throttled most of his competition on the mat. He’s also coming off a brutally quick KO win over Beneil Dariush.

Hooker, on the other hand, is an experienced kickboxer and is willing to go to war. He’s coming off a loss to the potential future champion Arman Tsarukyan, though that’s an easy loss to forgive.

Hooker has been taken down by many of his opponents and, though he’s not awful on the mat, Saint Denis projects to be the more likely top player with potential to finish the fight in grappling exchanges. Saint Denis is averaging 4.33 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is elite, and I expect he will have some early success.

What’s most intriguing about the matchup is that if Hooker can survive, which is plenty possible, he should have advantages at distance. Saint Denis is still defending strikes at a porous 42 percent, and when he’s forced to strike, he’s been badly beaten up. Dustin Poirier knocked him out, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos essentially did the same.

Hooker fits into a similar mold to Poirier; although he’s not as strong a pure boxer, he can throw down, and he can dish out damage. I absolutely do not trust Saint Denis in extended striking exchanges here, and I’d have to pick Hooker to win the fight outright if it stays standing.

Of Saint Denis’ 11 UFC fights, we’ve seen 10 of them end inside the distance, which I think is the most likely outcome once again. BetMGM has the fight to finish at -295, which is arguably fair but still less than 75 percent implied, so there’s arguably some value there. You can find it at better odds, which presents clearer value.

I tend not to hammer inside-the-distance plays because of inherent risk, but my guess is that Saint Denis can finish this fight on the mat, or he’ll get finished on the mat the majority of the time. I’m expecting fireworks regardless.

Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura

This is undoubtedly the most random fight I have ever decided to write about, but let’s give it a shot. Sebastian Szalay takes on Keiichiro Nakamura in the featherweight “Road to UFC” finale.

Szalay is 10-1 professionally and a karate black belt, who has kicked and evaded his way to the Eternal MMA featherweight belt, earning seven of those wins by decision.

Although he’s coming off a knockout win in less than one minute, Szalay has only won by knockout twice on the regional scene, which is not indicative of a major finishing threat. He also doesn’t wrestle, and instead uses that karate background to point-fight and maneuver away from exchanges.

I don’t mind the style, and I think he projects as an adequate round-winner at the UFC level, but he’s fairly one-dimensional to my eye.

Nakamura is 7-1 professionally with six wins by knockout and one win by decision. He’s a much bigger power threat, fighting out of the southpaw stance, and he’s the better athlete of the two.

Nakamura is four inches taller with four extra inches of reach over Szalay, and given his finishing prowess, he’ll want to come forward. Szalay should have no problems evading him early and dancing around the outside of the cage, as it doesn’t really make sense for him to meet Nakamura in the middle.

I think the books mispriced this fight with the “over 1.5 rounds” prop set below -200 in some spots. Although Nakamura could win by knockout, as most of his fights end by knockout, I don’t think he’ll have an easy time tracking Szalay down. Most of Szalay’s fights end by decision, and neither man has ever been finished by strikes.

So I think the most likely outcome here is that we get a slower-paced first round and possibly see the pace pick up later once Szalay gets tired from moving. If someone wins by early KO, so be it, but I think the fight should be lined at 2.5 rounds, and I’m willing to bet on an extended affair here.