UFC 323 picks, odds: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 headlines final PPV event

The final UFC PPV is upon us this weekend, and as usual, we’ll be breaking down some of the best fights of the night.

It should be a fun card, as Merab Dvalishvili challenges Petr Yan for the bantamweight title and Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van square off for the flyweight title. I’ve also written up an additional preliminary fight, but if there are any other matchups you’d like to chat about, let me know in the comment section below.

Let’s dive in!

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

We have a rematch for the bantamweight belt as Dvalishvili, one of the pound-for-pound best in the sport, looks to cement his legacy with another win over Yan.

It’s worth noting from the jump that when these two fought in 2023, Dvalishvili was a sizable underdog but cruised to a unanimous 50-45 decision.

In the rematch, we’re now seeing Dvalishvili lined as a heavy -450 favorite at BetMGM, and few are giving Yan a legitimate shot for the upset.

Dvalishvili is an absolute force in this division now and it’s difficult to tell what Yan can do differently this time around. I have mixed feelings because I’ve been lower on Yan’s game than the public in recent years, and it’s difficult to project him for much win equity when his best chance is to land 100 to 120 significant strikes while his opponent is landing the same, plus attempting an additional 50 takedowns.

However, I want to credit Yan because he’s arguably done the best job of defending Dvalishvili’s takedowns compared with any other championship opponent. Yes, he surrendered 11 takedowns in their 2023 bout but he also defended 38 of them, keeping himself upright 77.5 percent of the time.

When Yan was taken down, he usually scrambled up quickly and didn’t surrender much top control. This is actually the way to beat Dvalishvili. Yan did what was necessary to beat him in that particular sense.

Unfortunately, Dvalishvili was still able to earn a bunch of clinch control in the interim and land far more strikes than Yan. So in the rematch, Yan will need to limit that further and push a pace on the feet with no fear of getting taken down, hoping to hurt Dvalishvili at some point, which we have seen in the past.

Yan’s boxing has always been his strong suit, and he currently lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.14 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. He’s only topped out at 135 distance strikes landed against Cory Sandhagen in 2021, and he also tends to start slow. I do like his technique, though, and consider him a decent round-winner on the feet with some knockout equity.

Boxing alone isn’t enough to swing my confidence. I’m definitely going to pick Dvalishvili to win here, most likely by decision. His decision prop is already inflated to -250, but I’d much rather play that than his moneyline. Without easy top control, Dvalishvili won’t have an easy time securing a finish, and I am expecting this fight to extend.

I’m not counting Yan out, but he needs to pursue an offensive attack far more than in his last fight, which I am skeptical he can do, while continuing to withstand the dozens of takedowns he’ll inevitably face.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Of all the fights on this slate, I am most excited to see the flyweight championship and co-main event between Pantoja and Van.

Pantoja has proven himself to be a pound-for-pound beast and has rattled off eight consecutive wins, which include some dominant recent performances against Kai Kara-France and Kai Asakura.

Pantoja is extremely well rounded, a high-action Muay Thai striker and one of the best back-takers in the division. He’s upped his wrestling production in recent years, too, and has landed three, three, nine, eight and six takedowns in his last five fights. The combination of the attack, along with Pantoja’s experience, toughness and cardio over five rounds, makes him an extremely difficult opponent to beat.

However, since Pantoja’s win over Brandon Moreno in 2023, I don’t think he has fought anyone as dangerous as Van, and I think Van is extremely live to pull off the upset. I’ve been higher on Van than the public in recent fights and have now bet on him four times in his last five matchups, each of which he won.

He’s still young in the sport, but it was clear from the start that Van would be a threat on the feet. He is throwing incredible volume, and I love his boxing combinations. Currently, Van averages 8.86 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 6.36 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. He’s topped 204, 165 and 156 significant strikes landed over three rounds already, which is truly elite.

I honestly think he’s better suited for five rounds than three, which we have yet to see. He starts slow sometimes and builds momentum throughout the fight. In five rounds, that’s going to take a larger toll on opponents who are forced to trade with him in rounds four and five after already eating 150-plus significant strikes in the first 15 minutes.

Clearly, if Van can keep this fight upright, he could win. I’d have to favor the overall pacing of Van over five rounds, and I think he has a real shot to win by TKO. The issue is that Pantoja is a superior grappler. It wouldn’t be fair of me to discount this path, and it is possible that Pantoja makes Van look like a fish once he takes him down to the canvas.

However, I think Van might be ready for him. The one fight that I did not pick him to win was in March against Japanese wrestling prospect Rei Tsuruya. I thought the ground game would be too much for Van, but it wasn’t. Granted, Tsuruya and Pantoja are two different levels of talent, but Van still was forced to defend 21 takedown attempts, of which he was successful on 17, and limited the top control from Tsuruya pretty well. His cardio looked great in that matchup, too.

After watching that fight, I declared him a future champion, and I’m going to roll with him this weekend. I still expect Pantoja to give him a test early and probably take him down a couple of times. But I think Van has a better chance of surviving it than most of Pantoja’s recent opponents.

He’s lined as a +190 underdog on BetMGM, and I think he’s worth a shot at that number. Pantoja by submission at +125 is a viable path if you like him to win, but I think there are a lot of potential outcomes for this matchup, including a Pantoja submission, decision or TKO, as well as a Van TKO or decision. I’d rather take a little shot on a wide underdog to win outright and hope for the best.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan

I haven’t had as much luck recently chasing the early prelims, but hey, let’s give it another shot, as I have some interest in Baraniewski over Aslan.

Baraniewski is making his UFC debut at 27 years old, and he’s 6-0 as a pro with two wins by submission and four wins by knockout. None of his fights have lasted past the first round, and he’s faced essentially zero resistance.

Typically, this is a major red flag, but what’s the fun of life if you don’t ignore some red flags on occasion?

Baraniewski won the bronze medal in the Junior World Judo Championships in 2018, and that is his base. In many of his fights, he’s clinching and tossing his opponents to the mat. Additionally, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Baraniewski on the feet. He doesn’t seem like an extreme liability there and possesses both speed and power in his hands. He won by KO in 20 seconds on the Contender Series.

Again, I usually ignore these types of results because they’re not worth much and aren’t predictive given the small sample. I’d really love to gather more data on him, and if he turns out to be a fraud, I wouldn’t be shocked.

However, I have a bit of hope here, as Baraniewski has gone the distance and won by decision three times on the amateur circuit, including in 2024 and 2022. This gives me some hope that his cardio is solid. For now, it’s worth assuming he needs an early finish, but I think he has respectable skills, and I’m interested to watch his debut against Aslan.

Aslan started off hot in the UFC, knocking out Anton Turkalj in the third round and knocking out Rafael Cerqueira in 51 seconds. He’s a power puncher, and all 14 of his wins have come by knockout, with the vast majority ending in the first round.

Unfortunately, we’ve seen him fall back to earth in his last two fights, losing to both Ion Cutelaba and Billy Elekana, and both fights have me concerned. It’s also worth mentioning that Turkalj is out of the promotion, and Cerqueira is among the worst fighters we’ve seen in the UFC in recent years.

Cutelaba was able to get Aslan down twice on four attempts and locked up an arm-triangle choke in less than three minutes. Cutelaba is decent, but we’ve now seen Aslan finished both times he’s been on the mat. Most recently, Aslan lost a striking-based decision to Elekana, where he was outlanded 35-to-28 in 15 minutes. It’s a gross defeat, and the lack of volume concerns me.

Heading into this matchup with Baraniewski, I find myself gravitating toward the newcomer. Baraniewski is clearly better on the mat and may be able to take Aslan down and finish him quickly. That is the outcome I am leaning toward.

Baraniewski is currently lined at -200 to win on BetMGM, but I’m personally looking to play him inside the distance when those props become available. Although it’s possible we see a decision, my guess is that Baraniewski can find a way to finish Aslan quickly. If he cannot, I don’t really want exposure in an extended fight, which is why I’d lean on the ITD props.

The under 1.5 prop is also set at -200, which isn’t bad, considering all of Baraniewski’s fights have hit that mark, and most of Aslan’s wins have as well. It gives you some coverage in case Aslan can hurt Baraniewski early.

That’s it for me in 2025, I hope you enjoy the fights. Thank you all so much for the support, and I wish you a very happy holiday season!