UFC 322 picks, odds: Islam Makhachev moves up to welterweight against Jack Della Maddalena

We have a stacked pay-per-view event for UFC 322. Both the welterweight and women’s flyweight championships are up for grabs.

I’ll be breaking down Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev, Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili and one of my other favorite fights from the slate. If you want to chat about any additional fights, leave a comment below.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev

Makhachev, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport today, has vacated his lightweight championship to move up to welterweight and compete for the belt against Della Maddalena.

Makhachev has won 15 consecutive fights in the UFC and most have been dominant performances, including finishes over Alexander Volkanovski, Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier.

Makhachev is a high-level grappler and excels on the mat, where he averages 3.20 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. His top control is strong, and he’s turned into a dangerous submission artist, too, earning six submission wins in his last nine fights.

Few fighters in the sport will be able to outgrapple Makhachev and, for the most part, nobody has.

Additionally, Makhachev has developed some solid boxing skills in recent years. His only pro loss came by knockout in 2015, but he’s also fought competitively with many on the feet and even outboxed Poirier in 2024.

More importantly, Makhachev still only absorbs 1.55 significant strikes per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate. He’s not a volume machine and only lands 2.63 significant strikes per minute, but he’s able to control exchanges and limit damage against him.

Della Maddalena took the belt from Belal Muhammad in May with a five-round decision, and he’s now 18-2 professionally with an 8-0 record inside the Octagon. He is primarily a striker and thrives on activity, landing 6.84 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute with a 64 percent defensive rate.

We’ve seen him top out north of 100 significant strikes landed in three rounds, and against Muhammad, Della Maddalena landed an impressive 178 significant strikes in five rounds. He’s an effective striker and capable of landing the big shots, knocking down five of his eight UFC opponents.

In striking exchanges, Della Maddalena is tough to beat. Those at the top of the division will have a shot, but he throws plenty of volume and does plenty of damage.

His concerns have always come on the mat, and although he’s still solid there and somewhat dangerous from top position, Maddalena can be taken down. He’s given up 13 takedowns in his last four matchups, and he defends takedowns at 69 percent.

What’s difficult to parse is the fact that he keeps winning. Despite being put in deep submissions by Ange Loosa, barely edging out Bassil Hafez on short notice or losing two early rounds to Gilbert Burns, Della Maddalena has come back to win.

If Della Maddalena can keep the fight upright, a questionable proposition against Makhachev, he can win this fight. He’s a more active striker and is arguably more durable. I’d consider him live to potentially win by knockout.

I don’t think Della Maddalena can outwrestle Makhachev, though. Despite his recent wins, he is giving up takedowns and position on the mat. Burns took him down seven times in 2024, and some of the positions that Della Maddalena scrambled up from make me think Makhachev just stalls him there, and potentially submits him.

Even on the feet, this isn’t purely one-sided. Makhachev will be outgunned, but his ability to limit damage will keep him alive. If he can land three to five takedowns over five rounds, Makhachev should be able to swing multiple rounds in his favor and get the win.

This matchup basically comes down to how much faith you have in the wrestling of Makhachev versus the defensive wrestling of Della Maddalena, and I have to lean pretty firmly in the Makhachev corner. Perhaps the new weight class won’t do him any favors, but Makhachev projects far too much ground success in this fight for me not to pick him.

At BetMGM, Makhachev is lined at -300 to win, which I think is fair. If anything, I lean toward there still being value on his side.

There’s a decent chance that if Makhachev can land a few takedowns, he can dominate this fight and will look like an 80-plus percent favorite in hindsight. I also don’t mind his submission prop if you can find it near +200. Della Maddalena may be live for a knockout if you want to take a big swing at +400 or better, but it’s not a spot I’m high on personally.

I’ll have some shares of Makhachev to win, or possibly mixed into some parlays, with a bit of exposure to his submission line.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili

We have the women’s No. 1 and No. 2 pound-for-pound fighters squaring off as Shevchenko defends her flyweight title against former strawweight champion Zhang.

Like Makhachev, Zhang decided to vacate her belt to move up a division, and the public thinks she has a legitimate shot to dethrone Shevchenko. She’s only a small underdog at +110 on BetMGM.

Zhang is a solid, well-rounded action fighter who has largely dominated her competition with athleticism and firepower. She lands 5.15 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.77 per minute with a 54 percent defensive rate. She also lands 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending at 74 percent.

In five rounds, we’ve seen Zhang go to war and rack up volume with a handful of takedowns mixed in as well.

I view this as a much different test for Zhang because Shevchenko is so skilled and so defensively sound. For the most part, producing any kind of offense against Shevchenko is difficult, and that’s what I worry about here with Zhang.

Shevchenko is a lifelong muay-thai striker and she lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.06 per minute with a 63 percent defensive rate. She likes to control exchanges and is very difficult to hit.

Shevchenko has also turned into one of the better wrestlers in the division, and she lands 2.62 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending at 75 percent. She has decimated some opponents from top control and from the crucifix, pouring down ground-and-pound.

She can also lack volume at times. In pure striking exchanges, Shevchenko isn’t a lock to run away with rounds because her volume ceiling is capped. She’s also made some mistakes recently that have cost her fights, including a slip-up against Alexa Grasso in 2023 that got her submitted.

I do think Zhang has a shot here. Primarily, Zhang produces more offense and she’s probably the better finisher of the two. One big moment could swing the whole fight.

I also think Shevchenko is better than Zhang technically, both on the feet and on the mat. Zhang won’t easily be able to bully Shevchenko as the smaller fighter, and I think Shevchenko can land a bit cleaner on the feet, while keeping safe for the most part.

I’m honestly not sure how the wrestling exchanges will go, but Zhang’s recent ground success against Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos means nothing as far as how she will fare here. She can possibly land some takedowns and threaten for a sub, but I’d lean toward Shevchenko limiting that option pretty severely.

On the flip side, Shevchenko might be able to land takedowns. Even Yan, not a skilled wrestler, had three against Zhang. In 2021, Rose Namajunas landed a couple takedowns and won the latter rounds with grappling and control.

I don’t want to discredit Zhang, but I don’t view wrestling as an easy path to victory for her. It’s another spot where Shevchenko may actually have the advantage.

I think Shevchenko should win this fight. She’s bigger, stronger, more technical and more defensively sound. Rounds could be competitive and I think Zhang is capable of having big moments, but Shevchenko is more likely to be in control and more likely to pull away over five rounds.

I’m not running to the window to bet Shevchenko at -135, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she looked like a bigger favorite in hindsight. I don’t mind her decision prop at +150. I think that’s the most likely outcome.

Zhang can win in a multitude of ways, but I don’t see clear value on her betting options.

Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint Denis

This should be an all-action thriller. I’ve been a fan of both fighters for different reasons throughout their respective UFC careers.

Saint Denis demands respect as an ultra-aggressive pressure fighter who swarms his opponents and beats them up. He’s the type to take eight or nine shots to give one in return, but that’s okay because once he closes the distance, he’s able to take his opponents down and break them.

Dariush is an underrated fighter and I’ve bet on him several times, including as an underdog in his most recent matchup against Renato Moicano, where Dariush survived some early damage and came back to win via wrestling.

This matchup is super intriguing because Dariush is a better fighter than Saint Denis in basically every aspect except durability and overall activity.

Dariush is a far more technical striker than Saint Denis. He’s an intelligent kickboxer with solid metrics. He lands 3.78 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.61 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate. Saint Denis lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.19 per minute with a 42 percent defensive rate.

The lack of defense for Saint Denis is a massive issue, and he’s paid for it multiple times. However, there’s no denying that Dariush has a poor chin. He has been badly hurt and brutally knocked out on several occasions.

On the mat, Saint Denis is very good, but he thrives more on pacing and pressure. Dariush is a skilled wrestler and black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he put up one of my favorite displays of defensive wrestling in recent memory against Mateusz Gamrot. Dariush may be the one to have success on the mat.

I hate using MMA math, but it’s worth pointing out that when Saint Denis ran into a good grappler in Moicano, Moicano took him down and beat him up so badly that the doctor had to stop the fight. Dariush just beat Moicano on the mat with ease and took him down five times on five attempts.

Dariush is the underdog by the way, sitting at +165 to win on BetMGM. It comes down to the pressure and activity from Saint Denis and the lack of durability on the Dariush side. I think if Saint Denis wins, it’s likely just an early knockout. Despite him not rating out as the better striker, he can land some hard shots and Dariush may not be able to take them.

I will have exposure to the underdog. I think Dariush has ways to win both on the feet and on the mat. It may be throwing money into the fire, but this is too wide a line for how their skill sets match up.

If I were betting on Saint Denis, I’d look closer at the TKO props, which you can find at +150 or better, or even Round 1 props, which I see at +250 or better. I also don’t mind the fight ending inside the distance at -250, which covers both sides.

This should be a fun and hectic fight for as long as it lasts.