As we head into the Premier League’s matchday 24, the winter squeeze is showing. Fixture congestion has started to bite, injuries are piling up for some sides, while others finally have key players returning at just the right time. With the Champions League league phase now settled, attention shifts back to domestic priorities.
Results since Christmas have reflected that churn. No side has won more than half of their league games in that spell, and even the best teams are showing signs of fragility.
We take a look at three key numbers from three key fixtures to help explain what might happen next.
Seven: Arsenal’s defensive errors are rising
Arsenal head to Leeds United on a three-game winless run in the Premier League, a sharp contrast to their perfect Champions League phase: played eight, won eight.
The nerves are no longer just about points. When Arsenal went 2-1 behind against Manchester United, even though they equalised before going 3-2 down again, the tension was visible in the stands and on the pitch. The talk since has centred on the caution and risk aversion in Arsenal’s game: when they were chasing, their clearest route yet again came from a set piece, and the lingering worry among fans is the continuation of that “handbrake” football. There is still plenty of the season left, but risk aversion is a dangerous habit; the only real way to calm it is to play with more intensity and more fluency, not less.
The bluntness in front of goal has added to the noise. Viktor Gyokeres has one penalty goal since the start of December and has managed only three shots on target in that time. Gabriel Jesus, making his first league start of the season after scoring twice against Inter in the Champions League, did not register a shot on target against United.
Gyokeres’ shot map hints at why this has felt so disjointed. Since December, he has taken 12 non-penalty shots, averaging 12.5 yards from goal, for 1.2 xG total. That is a supply story as much as a striker story, and it helps explain why his best work in this spell has often been away from the shot count, dragging centre-backs, creating separation for runners, and opening lanes for late arrivals.
Leeds United arrive with one defeat in their past 11 matches, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin has seven league goals since December 1, the most in the Premier League in that spell, all from inside the box. His shot map is the opposite profile: 22 non-penalty shots since December at an average distance of 9.5 yards, for 5.7 xG, with most attempts coming right on top of the six-yard area. That is what it looks like when a team is consistently finding its striker in the box and leaning into his strengths.
Kai Havertz’s return offers a different solution. He can lead the line as a No 9 or start as a No 8 and still arrive as a second striker, as he did against Kairat. The Kairat dashboard shows what Arsenal have missed when league games slow down: Havertz carries forward and plays forward, adding verticality in his 45 minutes. His assist for Gyokeres was a through ball that broke the line early, exactly the type of pass Gyokeres thrives on, into space before the box is set rather than after it.
But the more surprising wobble for Arsenal has been at the other end. Since January 1, Arsenal have made seven errors leading to an opposition shot, joint most in the league with Newcastle. The one that has defined the narrative was Martin Zubimendi’s mistake for Bryan Mbeumo’s equaliser.
The flip side is game management for Leeds: since the turn of the year they have dropped seven points from winning positions, also the most in the league, a sign that Leeds can build an advantage but struggle to protect it once momentum turns.
Head-to-head, Leeds are winless in their past six home league games against Arsenal (D2 L4), and Arsenal have won six straight league meetings (20-5 on aggregate).
6/6: United win when they have less of the ball
Under Michael Carrick, Manchester United have rediscovered their edge. The passing is sharper, the defending more assured, and decisions look clearer across the pitch.
This United side have been built for counterpunching since the Jose Mourinho days, most comfortable when they are underdogs and possession is secondary. United are six out six in matches where they average under 45 per cent possession, but only four out of 17 when they have more than 45 per cent. It is a split that spells out where their strengths lie, and it has outlived every manager since Jose Mourinho. They are also the only team unbeaten since Christmas — six league matches and counting.
That is why Fulham feel like a real test. The wins over Manchester City and Arsenal were impressive, but they were games where United could defend deeper, absorb pressure, and break quickly without the expectation of sustaining long spells on the ball. Do not mistake that for fear: Carrick’s side have shown bravery in possession too. But Fulham are more likely to force the next step, with United needing to create rhythm when the game slows and the space to counter is not there. A win would also match the best winning streak of Ruben Amorim’s turbulent 47-game spell in the Premier League, and Carrick would do it in his third match in charge.
One immediate shift, alongside the shape, has been Kobbie Mainoo. Carrick gave him his first and second starts of the season, using him as the balance in midfield and to bridge the gaps left by his predecessor. Mainoo’s touch map underlines why: he is everywhere United need him to be, covering the most ground in both wins and ranking near the top for United touches against City and Arsenal.
Casemiro has been dribbled past 28 times, second among midfielders, and Bruno Fernandes 25, so the fix has been structural: protect Casemiro’s limitations and keep him close to danger defensively, not chasing the ball. Out of possession, United often settle into a 4-4-2 that keeps distances shorter and the shape cleaner, with Mainoo providing the legs around Casemiro.
That has also freed Bruno to stay higher, dictate the press, and create. He leads the league with 15 big chances created and 10 assists, with six from set pieces, and he has three assists in his past three matches. Fulham have gone six games without a clean sheet, so limiting Bruno’s time is key.
Fulham’s threat is Harry Wilson. Since December 1, no player has more goal involvements than his nine, and his eight league goals this season have come from a cumulative xG of 0.84 (overall xG 3.96), with seven from his left foot.
United would normally counter that kind of wide threat by deploying Patrick Dorgu alongside Luke Shaw on that side, a pairing that has given them both protection and thrust since December 21. Dorgu is out for at least 10 weeks, and he leaves a big two-way hole: three goals, two assists, ever-present starts, and more possession wins than any United player in that spell.
That makes the replacement decision bigger than a like-for-like winger swap. Matheus Cunha is the obvious option. He has impressed off the bench, with an assist against Manchester City and a goal against Arsenal, but if he starts on that side he will need to inherit Dorgu’s defensive workload as well as add his own threat between the lines.
0: City have taken no points from losing positions
Manchester City steadied themselves with a win over bottom-placed Wolves. It followed three consecutive draws and a derby defeat to Manchester United. Arsenal’s loss to United has reopened a sliver of hope in the title race, with City still four points back. Spurs arrive with their own split reality: fourth in the Champions League league phase, yet only three points above 17th-placed Nottingham Forest in the Premier League.
Tottenham are winless in five league games (D3 L2), their fourth run of five or more matches without a win across the past two seasons. In the 12 seasons before (2012-13 to 2023-24), they had only four such runs in total. Injuries explain some of the flatness: Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, Mohammed Kudus and Richarlison are missing, and with so much craft absent it is no shock that 25 per cent of their league goals have come from centre-backs, the highest share in the division.
City have injury problems at the other end. John Stones, Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias are out, and Jeremy Doku suffered a calf injury in the Champions League win over Galatasaray.
Guardiola’s attack has adapted: City are more direct than in any previous version of his side, Erling Haaland has three fast-break goals (the same as the previous two seasons combined), and Phil Foden has two.
One of the most dramatic stylistic shifts of Guardiola’s City is how much they now lean into the counter. Their shots from fast breaks have almost doubled this season to 0.91 per 90, up from 0.47 last year, which helps explain both Haaland’s fast-break output and why the Antoine Semenyo signing fits the new direction.
A warning sign is what happens when City concede first. They have taken 0 points from losing positions and have lost all five league games in which they have fallen behind, despite trailing only five times. That “not-quite-peak-City” feel shows up elsewhere too: against Wolves they matched their opponents for shots (11 each), and their season shot differential is down to +4.7 per match, low by Guardiola-era standards.
This fixture also fits Thomas Frank’s preferences: a Spurs side comfortable conceding possession, defending space, and breaking quickly rather than trying to dominate the ball. Spurs have made the most errors leading to shots (26) in the league, while City rank first for possessions won and final-third regains, so the game may hinge on whether City can keep Spurs pinned without overcommitting numbers and feeding the counter.
Guardiola has lost more league games against Spurs than any other opponent (eight), even if City have won their past two away league matches at Tottenham and are chasing a rare three-in-a-row.