The Pascal Struijk expected goals quirk – and why Leeds need more from him

Leeds United have only lost twice in 11 matches and yet the Premier League table remains far too tight for comfort with Nottingham Forest visiting Elland Road on Friday evening.

It’s 16th hosting 17th, only separated in the table by United’s 31 goals scored to Forest’s 24, playing for the chance to go nine points clear of the relegation zone.

Such has been United’s remarkable turnaround in form, stretched out across the past two months, supporters may have expected more breathing room than this. In an 11-match form table since that turning point at Etihad Stadium in November, Leeds would be 10th.

Their points per game across that same period, 1.36, extrapolates to 51.8 across a 38-game season, which would have placed them 13th in last term’s final table. So, they’ve been performing at the level a mid-table outfit for the past two months.

This has given them a great chance of survival, but there’s still a distinct sense, across the campaign as a whole, that Leeds could have rewarded themselves more when they have been the better team this season. How many of the six draws in this run could have been wins?

According to Opta, for the 24 matches already played, Leeds should be 11th in the league with an expected points tally of 34.7. Of course, this is not a perfect science, but it’s a helpful look into how much better off Leeds should, in theory, be.

Opta’s expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome. Each match is then simulated 10,000 times.

If you were to isolate the last 11 matches and look purely at the xG tallies each team generated, the data would suggest Leeds should have won their away games at Everton, Sunderland and Brentford. That’s six points alone they may feel they should have brought home.

There was the chaos at Newcastle United, of course. The two teams’ xG tallies that night were so similar a draw may have been the fair result. Another point dropped.

The xG data would also suggest Leeds overperformed in the draws away at Liverpool and at home against Manchester United. Two points gained, in that sense.

Another telling statistic in this argument that Leeds should have rewarded themselves more frequently for their better performances is the number of points they have dropped from winning positions since August. Only Bournemouth (18), West Ham United (18) and Newcastle (16) have dropped more than United’s 15.

There were two dropped in each of the draws with Bournemouth, Manchester United and Everton. Then three dropped in each of the defeats by Forest, Aston Villa and Newcastle. It’s a very basic measure which does not account for the flow of those matches, but it underlines just how much better Leeds have needed to be in protecting those precious leads they amass.

Another interesting statistic to emerge ahead of this week’s round of matches speaks to United’s need to be more clinical. As Opta’s expected points data shows, Leeds are evidently underperforming in front of both goals.

They have scored 31 against an xG of 33.5 and conceded 42 against an xGA (expected goals against) of 34.8. Of all the Leeds players due a goal, Pascal Struijk seems to be at the top of the list.

Only Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister (31) has had more shots without scoring than Struijk (22) in the Premier League this season, with Struijk accumulating the highest xG without a goal so far (2.28). Struijk’s aerial prowess in attacking corners is no secret to the Leeds faithful, but it’s odd he’s yet to get off the mark in 2025-26.

As you can see above, the vast majority of the Dutchman’s efforts are, predictably, from his head. At an average distance of nine yards from goal, you can see how good the central positions are he’s finding at set pieces.

His threat at corners is crucial for Leeds to maximise those deliveries they get into the box, especially against superior opponents. Just last weekend, Struijk was responsible for the only shot on target Leeds had against Arsenal.

He shifts from one side to the next, trying to throw Declan Rice off balance, before grappling and outmuscling him to get a decent contact on the ball. It was ultimately a tame save for David Raya to make, however.

It was different in the reverse fixture. Yes, Leeds lost and Raya saved the header, but Struijk got a far better contact on the ball, fizzing it under the crossbar. The Spanish goalkeeper had to react quickly to keep the game at 0-0.

These are small margins, but moments like this can swing a match. There are other good examples of how useful Struijk is in the opposition area.

In the November defeat by Villa, Struijk saw a brilliant effort parried away in the 88th minute. He attacks the space, leaps highest and would have made it 2-2 at the death if Emiliano Martinez reacted more slowly.

United’s fate does not rest purely on Struijk’s forehead, but it’s hard to ignore the league position, the scale of Friday’s match and the fact their defender is more overdue than any other player in the division. The importance of set-piece goals to a team like Leeds also emphasises Struijk’s role.

There are eight teams who score, in some cases marginally, a higher percentage of their goals from corners than United, but the prevalence of the green squares in Leeds’ graphic tells a story. Joe Rodon, Struijk’s long-time partner at the back, has two goals from corners this term, while Jaka Bijol has one against Chelsea too.

If Leeds are to find these marginal gains in such a tough first season back in the top flight, they need the team, especially Struijk, to convert these set-piece chances when they come. When it’s under the lights in February at Elland Road against a near rival, Struijk has more experience than most of winning matches for Leeds with his head.

Just ask Sunderland.