Gameweek 28 sees significant transfer activity among defenders, with Chelsea’s Trevoh Chalobah (£5.7m) and Arsenal’s Jurrien Timber (£6.4m) the second- and third-most transferred-out players.
Meanwhile, Manchester City’s Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) and Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) have each seen over 300,000 transfers in.
So, should we be focusing our transfer plans on our defensive assets this week and what are the key moves?
Defensive doubts at Arsenal?
Many managers are reaching a turning point when it comes to their investment in Arsenal’s defence now that the dust has settled on their Double Gameweek 26. The Gunners have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last three fixtures, conceding four goals in this spell.
But they remain the best defence in the Premier League, with a leading 13 clean sheets in 28 games and the fewest big chances conceded on their goal by some margin (30). We need to be mindful of their looming blank in Gameweek 31 too, which means it’s no longer viable to be doubled up on their defence.
I’d still advocate holding goalkeeper David Raya (£6.0m) and centre-back Gabriel (£7.1m) for the time being, with Chelsea, Brighton and Everton in the next three gameweeks.
Will David Raya and Gabriel get your vote of confidence? (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
However, Jurrien Timber (£6.4m) now looks to be a sell, with his 57th-minute substitution a catalyst for that. He has only registered one attacking return this calendar year.
Clean sheets lacking at Chelsea
We are similarly seeing fire sales for Chelsea’s defence, with Trevoh Chalobah (£5.7m) and Marc Cucurella (£6.1m) on the transfers-out list.
Chelsea have had some fantastic fixtures, with all of their five most recent opponents sitting in the bottom half of the Premier League table. They’ve been unbeaten in this time, with wins against Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolves, plus draws against Leeds United and Burnley.
However, they’ve failed to improve on their tally of nine clean sheets for the campaign from this green patch of fixtures, conceding seven goals in this time. They have been somewhat unlucky with their defensive form, ranking third for shots conceded (51) on their goal in this time and with 12 big chances conceded.
The fixtures do now turn, with trips to Arsenal and Aston Villa in the next two gameweeks. That means the case to sell Chelsea assets is compelling with form and fixtures in mind.
Cucurella has picked up an injury, but Chalobah has registered the two-point defensive contribution bonus in four of his last five games. Averaging just 3.2 points per game is a concern.
Virgil vs O’Reilly
The case to sell premium defenders from Arsenal and Chelsea becomes even more compelling when you consider the form of Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) and Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m).
It’s O’Reilly leading the transfers in, largely helped by three goals in the last two gameweeks. He’s playing high in midfield in Pep Guardiola’s attack, despite being listed as a defender. Among defenders, he’s top for shots (eight) in this period, and he’s now up to four goals and three assists for the season. He’s started 21 games, with City keeping one clean sheet in their last four.
The upcoming fixtures for City are promising, with a home game against Nottingham Forest sandwiched between trips to Leeds United and West Ham. My only reservation for buying this week would be City’s blank in Gameweek 31 due to their involvement in the Carabao Cup final.
After his 17-point haul last gameweek, Nico O’Reilly has seen plenty of transfer traffic (Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images)
However, this is very much team-dependent, and if you are sitting on a stack of transfers or have a strong bench, you may be able to afford to be more attacking. I’m an O’Reilly owner and pleased to have weathered the storm to pick up his recent hauls. Yet it’s Van Dijk I’d prioritise buying this week.
Liverpool have the perfect blend of form and fixtures, winning three of their last four Premier League games, with two clean sheets and just three goals conceded. They face West Ham, Wolves, Spurs and Brighton in the next four gameweeks, with their next two opponents in particular occupying the relegation spots in the Premier League table.
Van Dijk has picked up two goals and one assist in the last five gameweeks, his only attacking returns of this campaign in the Premier League. His underlying numbers are equally compelling, where he ranks fifth for big chances on goal (5) and ninth for shots in the box (17).
Defender differentials…
O’Reilly is a differential in his own right, in less than 10 per cent of sides, but there are some other candidates to consider if you’re chasing rank in the game.
Newcastle United’s Malick Thiaw (£5.0m) faces Everton at home in Gameweek 28, one of three home games in the next four for the Magpies. He has scored four goals in the Premier League this season, including a brace when he visited Everton earlier in this campaign.
Liverpool’s Ibrahima Konate (£5.4m) is also worth a look, coming in £0.6million cheaper than team-mate Van Dijk and with those attractive fixtures to attack. He got on the scoresheet back in Gameweek 24 against Newcastle and has hit the defensive contribution bonus in two of the last four gameweeks.