If our staff’s Super Bowl picks are any indication, Sam Darnold and the Seahawks will bring the Lombardi Trophy home to Seattle.
Most of our voters acknowledge that the New England Patriots have top-tier leadership in coach Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye, but they believe the Seahawks are the better team overall, featuring an elite defense. Overall, 78 percent of our 45 voters picked Seattle to beat New England at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
“The Seahawks have been a tough out all season because of how effective they are in all three phases,” The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar, who covers the Seahawks, says. “When the offense isn’t humming, the defense and special teams can pick up the slack. When the defense has a rough night against Matthew Stafford, the offense is ready to drop 30 points on a top-10 defense. Seattle has been the best and most complete team all season. Its defense is suffocating and dominant up front. The offense is explosive. The special teams units are elite. If the Seahawks play their usual style, they should earn the second championship in franchise history.”
The Seahawks haven’t lost since Nov. 16, and that was by two points on the road against the Rams. Patriots detractors point to their schedule, but Vrabel and company have won 16 of their last 17 games and may just have that special something of a champion.
“The Seahawks probably have the better roster of players 2-53. But the Patriots have won this season because they’ve had the better head coach-quarterback pairing each week,” says Chad Graff, who covers the Patriots for The Athletic. “And that continues against the Seahawks. Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye lead them to a seventh Super Bowl title.”
Now, our picks.
Why the Seahawks will win …
Drake Maye is a stud, but Seattle’s defense is full of them. The second-year quarterback’s time will come, but not just yet. I think the Seahawks will be able to generate enough pressure to fluster Maye into one mistake too many, while Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba put a fitting cap on what has been a storybook season for both. — Matt Schneidman, Packers beat writer
For all the weapons both teams have on offense, this game will come down to defense and ball security, much like the last Super Bowl played at Levi’s Stadium. The Seahawks had the NFL’s stingiest defense during the regular season, allowing 17.2 points per game and a 32.1 percent opponent third-down conversion rate. And including the playoffs, they’re 12-0 when winning the turnover battle, a streak that dates to 2024. I’m going with Seattle. — Nicki Jhabvala, Commanders beat writer
The Seahawks have been the most complete team in the NFL all season. It wouldn’t surprise me if this is a lopsided game. The one thing that gives me pause about picking the Seahawks is that Sam Darnold is still Sam Darnold, and I won’t be convinced the ghost-seeing version is gone until he’s holding the Lombardi Trophy. Drake Maye needs to play like the MVP to give the Patriots a chance. I don’t see that happening against a nasty Seattle defense. — Dan Duggan, Giants beat writer
Mike Vrabel’s reclamation work in New England has ranked among the best stories of the year. And the Patriots’ defense has played very well this postseason. But I feel like Seattle’s defense — a unit full of game-wreckers who boast speed and versatility — has the real potential to overwhelm Drake Maye and the Patriots offense. Maye hasn’t looked good this postseason, and he’s been sacked five times per playoff contest. It’ll be interesting to see if Maye can use his legs to keep the Seahawks off-balance enough to keep New England on the move. But ultimately, the way the Seattle defense and the balance with which the Seahawks offense executes, I see Seattle winning pretty handily. — Mike Jones, NFL national writer
Giving Mike Macdonald two weeks to game plan won’t bode well for Drake Maye. The Patriots defense is no slouch either, though. Milton Williams and company will make things tough for Sam Darnold, but the Seahawks are so solid all around that they pull out the win. JSN gets Super Bowl MVP. — Dave Niinemets, NFL senior editor
Seattle cleared its toughest hurdle by beating Matthew Stafford and the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Seahawks defense faces better matchups against the Patriots, especially up front. That will be the difference in the game unless Sam Darnold is careless with the ball. New England could implement a higher-variance game plan as a result. We should watch for trick plays, fake kicks and the like. Drake Maye needs a big scrambling day as well for the Patriots to pull the upset. — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer
I can’t decide if New England goes into halftime with a slim lead and the Seahawks come roaring back, or the Seahawks go up early and Drake Maye leads an ultimately unsuccessful but exciting comeback attempt in the second half. But I’m pretty sure bettors will be sweating the ending if the spread stays at Seattle -4.5 and the total at 45.5. — Jon Greenberg, columnist
Drake Maye is completing less than 56 percent of his passes in the playoffs. He has been sacked 15 times in three games. Were it not for a Broncos turnover deep in their own territory, New England may not have reached the end zone in the AFC Championship Game. Now Maye is dealing with a shoulder issue. I just don’t see the evidence to support Maye and the New England offense producing the A-game they’ll need in order to do enough against Seattle’s swarming defense and its architect, Mike Macdonald. — Nick Kosmider, Broncos beat writer
I needed to stand out a little bit among the endless Seahawks picks, so how about the first shutout in Super Bowl history? The Patriots have no answer for the Seahawks’ defensive line, which works together so well, or their disguises, and Drake Maye has his fourth horrible playoff start in a row. Their schedule and playoff path here really was historically easy. For the Seahawks, Sam Darnold doesn’t throw up all over his cleats and Kenneth Walker III is the MVP. — Vic Tafur, 49ers beat writer
Why the Patriots will win …
A great coach on his second head coaching job and a great young quarterback as Super Bowl underdogs — I’ve seen this New England movie before. The Patriots’ upset of the high-flying St. Louis Rams nearly a quarter-century ago launched a dynasty, and I’m not saying the same thing will happen here. But even though Seattle is the better team, the Pats have something special going for them. Drake Maye will make a few critical plays with his legs that help get just enough points on the board against that punishing Seattle D. — Ian O’Connor, columnist
These are two closely-matched teams, despite the tidal wave of experts picking Seattle. The Seahawks defense gets more hype, but the Patriots defense has been more effective lately, allowing an average of 8.7 points and coming up with eight takeaways in three postseason games. If a quarterback wins the Super Bowl with a late drive, it’s likely to be Drake Maye. — Dan Pompei, NFL senior writer
Since Week 11, New England leads the league in scoring defense, allowing just 16 points per game. On top of that, the Patriots are first in defensive EPA per dropback (.20), second in yards per play allowed (4.4) and sixth in defensive EPA (13.4). In that same time span, the Seahawks are 17th in total offensive EPA (1.15). Throw in Sam Darnold’s turnover history, and there’s every reason to believe an ugly upset is on the way. — Josh Kendall, Falcons beat writer
Smart money is on the Seahawks — and that’s obviously reflected in how most of our staff sees this game. Seattle is the better team, but, for as good a coach as I believe Mike Macdonald is, I still see the Patriots having a coaching advantage with Mike Vrabel. He has that great ability to (legally) manipulate the rules that just might deliver enough of an advantage for an upset. — Jimmy Durkin, NFL managing editor
The Patriots have allowed only 8.7 points per game during the playoffs, which is the lowest mark by a team that’s played at least three playoff games since the Super Bowl-winning Ravens in 2000 (5.8), per NFL Pro. I understand that New England’s stingy defense has been aided, in part, by inclement weather, but I still think that unit is underrated. If the Patriots can force a turnover or two, I’m confident Drake Maye can take advantage while putting together his best playoff performance to complete New England’s remarkable turnaround. — James Boyd, Colts beat writer