By definition, a unique storyline is rare and cannot simply be duplicated overnight. The magical story should probably be considered solely as an outlier rather than a seminal moment.
But sports bettors cannot help themselves.
After seeing the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots make betting history and reach the Super Bowl with long-shot odds in the neighborhood of 60-to-1 or higher, gamblers are already trying to uncover another needle in the haystack for the upcoming NFL season.
After speaking with a few respected bettors and oddsmakers, below are a handful of teams with attractive Super Bowl odds that grab my attention.
Promising Super Bowl long shots
Los Angeles Chargers (+1500)
I feel they made the single best coaching hire this offseason, adding offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. And yes, that includes the league’s 10 new head coaches. I consider McDaniel a modern-day Norv Turner — an elite play-caller who should not be a head coach.
I anticipate his innovative vision unlocking quarterback Justin Herbert with advanced concepts and pre-snap motion. If McDaniel took Tua Tagovailoa to the playoffs twice, then he should help the Chargers take the next step as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
The price of +1500 is not worth a wager right now, given how competitive the AFC and division are. However, if the market moves, I would definitely grab +2000.
Chicago Bears (+2500)
Chicago won the NFC North and a playoff game, thanks to a record seven wins after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation. Conventional wisdom suggests they are a prime target for regression. However, professional handicapper Rob Kersey feels they are poised to continue this trajectory.
“The team that sticks out to me with chemistry and coaching is the Bears. I absolutely think they’re for real,” Kersey told The Athletic. “Caleb Williams has all the tools, and I think he’s finally learned how to play quarterback. And Ben Johnson is awesome.”
Kersey just cashed a 60-to-1 Super Bowl ticket on the Seahawks. If that wasn’t enough, he also had Seattle over 7.5 wins as his top play, and he also wagered on them to win the division (+550) and NFC championship (+2800) before last season.
Indianapolis Colts (+4000)
After a 7-1 start, Indy was the NFL’s biggest surprise with an offense ranking in the top five in several key categories. In fact, it was averaging 3.46 points per drive, which was on pace to be the league’s highest over the past 25 years.
“At one point, they looked like the best team, but then suffered some injuries and fell apart,” professional bettor Jay Romano told The Athletic, referring to Daniel Jones suffering a torn Achilles. “The infrastructure is there, and they have proven the scheme works. I think there are worse places you can look for a 40-to-1 longshot.”
“I’d like to see them bring in a veteran, proven wide receiver. And the trade for Sauce Gardner could really free them up to be more aggressive on defense,” Romano said.
New York Giants (+6600)
This is a somewhat trendy pick, given New York brought in a fresh staff under new head coach John Harbaugh. Plus, they tied an NFL record by blowing five double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, so wins are not all that far away.
DraftKings has taken a steady flow of public wagers on New York, including a “significant” wager on their 80-to-1 Super Bowl odds. They have since lowered that price to 70-1.
“It’s a team that didn’t have all their players for the year, so it makes sense that bettors are taking a shot,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told me. “Their profile is similar to the Patriots this year, coming off a bad season and hiring a new coach while already having a quarterback in place.”
QB Jaxson Dart won over fans with his dual-threat play. Plus, Malik Nabers is considered a top-10 wide receiver and expected to return from a torn right ACL before the regular season.
Atlanta Falcons (+6600)
Perhaps no team made a bigger upgrade at head coach than Atlanta, as Raheem Morris routinely botched basic clock management concepts. Two-time Coach of the Year and offensive guru Kevin Stefanski escapes Cleveland’s dysfunction and now gets Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
The quarterback position is a bit of a wild card. Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a torn left ACL in Week 11 and may not be ready for the season opener, while Kirk Cousins is expected to become a free agent. But with a mediocre division and huge odds, Atlanta feels like it is worth a flier.
New Orleans Saints (150/1)
This would be the longest shot to ever win the Super Bowl, so feel free to laugh. However, they only finished two games back in that weak NFC South after closing the season on a 4-1 run and covering their final six games. This team clearly outperformed expectations in the second half, once rookie quarterback Tyler Shough took over as the starter after a 1-7 start.
First-year head coach Kellen Moore has the franchise headed in the right direction, and we definitely saw what his departure as offensive coordinator did to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. Adding the right pieces this offseason via free agency and the draft could shake things up.