Sinners vs. One Battle After Another

For:   
The Yorgos Lanthimos-directed film has the profile of a movie that can generate real passion among voters who prioritize authorial risk, tonal ambition and singular filmmaking choices. In ranked-choice races, that kind of committed first-place bloc can be extremely valuable in early rounds, especially if the field is fragmented. It also helps the ambition of its central star, Emma Stone, who has proven to be a notable producer on her projects.    
 
Against:   
The very qualities that create passion can also create resistance. Preferential systems are unforgiving to films that inspire “top or bottom” reactions, because surviving later rounds requires middle-ballot strength across a broad base of voters.    

For:   
Apple’s ambitious racing flick from Joseph Kosinski appeals to a substantial slice of voters who value theatrical scale. In industry circles, a movie that demonstrates top-tier production logistics and commercial appeal can command respect beyond pure critics’ enthusiasm.    
 
Against:   
Its central vulnerability is that it has respect without urgency. Films in this lane are often praised but not necessarily ranked first or second enough by voters to establish a clear winner.   

For:   
Guillermo Del Toro’s monster epic has the potential to unite craft-first voters with story-first voters. Prestige genre can perform very well when it transcends category expectations and feels like a full-spectrum cinematic achievement.    
 
Against:   
Genre friction remains a real factor in some corners of awards voting. Even when widely respected, genre-adjacent films can be treated as “craft triumphs” rather than top-prize choices. Also, if you’re a horror admirer, you might be more down with “Sinners.”   

For:   
Chloé Zhao’s Shakespearean drama looks like a contender built for preferential stability. Films in this emotional mold are often hard for voters to rank at the bottom, which is a major asset. It also helps that it has familiar names like Oscar-winning Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes. If the race gets chaotic, “Hamnet” could become the compromise winner many camps can live with — not necessarily everyone’s favorite, but consistently high enough to survive and then surge as more polarizing titles drop out.    
 
Against:   
The main risk is that “Hamnet” becomes the race’s most admired and least championed film. There is a difference between being broadly liked and actively prioritized. It feels like the antithesis of the “One Battle” and “Marty Supreme” voter, who there are many of.  

For:   
The Timothée Chalamet sports vehicle can thrive as a possible “momentum” candidate. It’s a film that feels alive in conversation and is culturally relevant. If the growing love combines the type of unconventional energy the movie has shown (i.e., the marketing stunt of the orange blimp) with enough key blocs, it could be the spoiler that turns a two-film race into a reshuffle. 
 
Against:   
Momentum can be noisy without being that deep. If support is concentrated in specific demographics, the Josh Safdie movie may struggle to find avenues to clear the required threshold. 

For:   
Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic has the profile of a classic high-end contender with critical acclaim, a clear artistic identity, and strong support from the Hollywood community. In ranked voting, that can produce robust first place showing and meaningful downstream placements from voters who rate it just behind their top pick. And who won’t want to see PTA miss his overdue moment?   
 
Against:   
Its threat profile is polarization by tone to some industry voters. If some see it as imposing or cold, they may place it too low. In addition, when it comes to ranked-choice voting, the season’s narrative has been “One Battle” vs. “Sinners” — and a “Sinners” voter can actively try to thwart its chances. Moreover, there may be a tiny bit of vote-siphoning from “Marty Supreme.”   

For:   
Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama could be the stealth climber in a crowded field. Its intimacy, beloved by actor-driven and writing-sensitive voters, could be the secret sauce.  If larger contenders cancel each other out, voters often pivot to the movie that feels honest and least divisive.    
 
Against:   
The biggest risk is simple voting physics. It’s a smaller-scale contender that can suffer if initial first-place totals are too low.    

For:   
Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic has one of the strongest all-around pathways: major cultural heat, substantial critical conversation, and cross-branch enthusiasm. In terms of preferential treatment, it gives it two routes to victory — either first-place dominance or broad top-three durability. If it’s both a passion pick and a consensus pick, it becomes exceptionally hard to beat.   
 
Against:   
With high visibility comes heightened scrutiny. Frontrunners often trigger countercoalitions, and preferential voting gives them a mechanism to consolidate around alternatives. If some voters do not want “Sinners” to win, they could align behind other challengers (i.e., “One Battle After Another” or “Hamnet”).   

For:   
Clint Bentley’s beautiful “Train Dreams” benefits from the qualities that ranked systems were made for. It can be a middle of the road admired flick that keeps its chances alive while flashier contenders cannibalize one another. If it becomes the film voters love most as a final compromise, it could outperform more heavily branded rivals in the rounds that matter most, and perhaps surprise as Netflix’s first legitimate winner.   
 
Against:   
The counterpoint is that consensus without urgency can plateau. A film can be everyone’s third choice and still lose to a contender with stronger placements.   

For:   
Zach Cregger’s box-office horror hit enters the lineup, showing strong guild enthusiasm, and suggests the film connects strongly with at least one influential voting lane. This is the best kind of sign for supporting actress Oscar nominee Amy Madigan.    
 
Against:   
The absence from the Oscar best picture lineup is still a major structural obstacle. In a season where PGA and Academy lineups otherwise overlap heavily, that makes it impossible to triumph.  

Will Win: “Sinners”  

Could Win: “One Battle After Another”

Should Have Been Nominated: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics); “The Secret Agent” (Neon); “Sirāt” (Neon); “Sorry, Baby” (A24); “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa)