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The universities of Durham and East London have seen the largest unexplained increase since 2010-11 in top grades, according to data that underlines concerns about so-called grade inflation.
Regulators said that almost two-thirds more first-class degrees were awarded than could be explained by student qualifications such as A-levels and other factors, amplifying fears about declining standards in English higher education.
The Office for Students (OfS) said universities needed to do more to maintain standards as it published data on Thursday that adds further fuel to arguments that the value of degrees is diminishing.
There are concerns at the regulator that the bar has been lowered as universities face pressure to please students and climb league tables in the face of growing financial strains.
In 2023-24, 28.8 per cent of graduates were awarded firsts, 0.8 percentage points down on the year before after a peak during Covid.
But the figure — almost twice the level of 2010-11 — coupled with OfS modelling based on student A-level results, subject mix and other factors suggests only 17.7 per cent should have achieved firsts that year.
The regulator believes better teaching and other improvements might explain a small fraction of this increase.
Some universities have seen much bigger increases in the share of UK students awarded first-class degrees.
At the University of East London, firsts increased from 10.9 per cent of degrees in 2010-11 to 35.7 per cent in 2023-24. At the University of Durham the share of top grades increased from 18.4 per cent to 39.6 per cent over the same period.
Durham is a Russell Group university which regularly ranks among the world’s top 100, while the University of East London is a former polytechnic focused on applied subjects.
But data published by the OfS revealed the two universities had the largest unexplained increase in the share of firsts compared to their rate of awards in 2010-11 across 142 English higher education institutions.
Josh Fleming, director of strategy and delivery at the OfS, said the sector had taken positive steps to address grade inflation, but added “there is much more to be done . . . to maintain public confidence in the value of a degree” from an English university.
“Students, employers and the public need to have confidence that the degrees institutions award accurately reflect student attainment,” he added.
The OfS used statistical modelling to calculate unexplained rates of attainment and transform these to standardised scores to allow for comparisons across academic years and providers.
Since 2010-11, the proportion of University of Buckingham students awarded firsts has surged from 17 per cent to over half, the largest rise among providers that had degree-awarding powers 15 years ago, based on the analysis.
Sam Freedman, a former government education policy adviser, said there were “strong incentives to inflate grades”, the effects of which could vary between universities and departments of the same institution.
“Accurate grading between institutions is important in ensuring fairness for graduates,” he said.
All but four institutions are awarding more firsts than in 2010, including Oxford, where the proportion has increased 5.5 points to 34.1 per cent of students, and Cambridge, which has seen a 7.2 point rise to 33.3 per cent.
In almost all universities, the OfS estimates that some of this is unexplained. Only a handful of universities, including Birmingham City and Oxford Brookes, have awarded fewer firsts than expected based on its modelling.
A spokesperson for Universities UK said institutions “have taken significant action over a number of years to protect degree standards” and “remain committed to safeguarding this value”.
Estimates account for factors including school grades and subject mix but the unexplained rise in attainment could be influenced by changes made in response to the Covid-19 pandemic or improvements in teaching quality, the report noted.
The University of East London said: “Our multi award-winning careers-first education in the UK’s most dynamic, socially inclusive university is unlocking the potential of some of the most innovative, creative [and] resilient talent in the world.”
The University of Durham pointed to separate unadjusted OfS figures that showed the rise in unexplained attainment relative was “significantly lower than the sector average”.
“Our awards reflect the quality of our students and the research-led education they receive at Durham,” the university said, adding that its degrees were commended by external assessors.
Additional reporting by Oliver Hawkins