This Sunday slate is 2025’s best. That’s not an exaggeration, and I’ll explain why. Plus, Ted Nguyen exposes a flaw in a contender, and NFL executives share concerns about the 2026 QB class. Let’s roll.
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Ranking all 13 games for Week 11
There are rarely weeks this compelling, as I’ve pre-warned my family.
We get four games between eight of the league’s best teams — Seahawks at Rams, Lions at Eagles, Chiefs at Broncos and Buccaneers at Bills — while others include promising matchups between division rivals or quarterbacks desperate for wins, all spread across four different Sunday time slots.
There isn’t another left on the schedule that is this stacked (I checked), so quickly think of some way to get out of those dinner plans.
Gotta love sports. Here’s how I’d rank the best Sunday slate of the year (all times ET — and p.m., unless they’re in Spain):
13. Texans (-7, per BetMGM) at Titans, 1, Fox. OK, maybe skip this one. C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion, meaning Davis Mills starts as Houston’s quarterback against a 1-8 team.
12. Ravens (-7.5) at Browns, 4:25, CBS. This ranking might have already reached the good games. The Browns are 3-1 in their last four home games against the Ravens, though I had to triple-check that. If they can again stop Baltimore’s run game, then something from an offense that showed flashes last week could make it exciting. It’s happened before.
11. Packers (-7) at Giants, 1, Fox. Since 2020, interim head coaches are 7-8 in their initial games, so don’t be shocked if Mike Kafka gives New York a post-Brian Daboll bump. He passed the first test by starting Jameis Winston in Jaxson Dart’s absence. The Packers offense has scored just 23 points across its last two games. This is no slam dunk.
10. Commanders at Dolphins (-2.5), 9:30 a.m., NFL Network. Madrid hosts two 3-7 teams, both ones with enough flaws to entertain. As Toby Mergler noted in his NFL overreaction column, Washington’s defense has now given up 154 points in its last four games, the most the team has allowed in such a stretch since 1954.
9. Panthers at Falcons (-3), 1, Fox. Tune in to decide whether underachieving Bryce Young and the visibly frustrated Michael Penix Jr. are good enough quarterbacks. The jury is still out, frankly.
8. Chargers (-3) at Jaguars, 1, CBS. Injuries have limited Pro Bowl edge Khalil Mack to just four full games this season. The 7-3 Chargers are 4-0 in those games, with wins against the Chiefs, Vikings, Titans and Steelers. This will be his fifth. Elsewhere, Justin Herbert will have time against a middling pass rush, and the spread should probably swing further in L.A.’s favor. That said, this Jacksonville team wins weird upsets.
7. Bears at Vikings (-2.5), 1, Fox. Two NFC North rivals, each with quarterbacks who need to progress. How does Caleb Williams look after quieting the haters last week? (Watch Chase Daniel explain that here.) Plus, Justin Jefferson could do this at any point against a secondary he often torches:
6. Bengals at Steelers (-5.5), 1, CBS. Their first meeting was a battle for the ages (specifically, the ages 40-plus), with Joe Flacco’s Bengals upsetting Aaron Rodgers’ Pittsburgh in a 33-31 thriller. This one could alter the seasons of both teams. A loss effectively ends Cincy’s at 3-7, while a Steelers loss means Baltimore likely wins this division, as you can see for yourself in our Playoff Simulator.
5. 49ers (-3) at Cardinals, 4:05, Fox. Brock Purdy and receiver Ricky Pearsall return to SF’s lineup after missing the past six games. Can Purdy play well enough to squash any Mac Jones controversy? Could Jacoby Brissett continue to outplay Kyler Murray and take advantage of the injury-depleted 49ers’ defense, all without Marvin Harrison Jr.?
4. Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos, 4:25, CBS. Denver is 8-2 and could help cement its spot atop the AFC West with a win. But without cornerback Pat Surtain II, against a Chiefs team coming off a bye? Good luck. Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 in Denver and 13-1 overall against the Broncos, so if the underdogs win this one, I’ll stop doubting them.
3. Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5), 1, CBS. How does 6-3 Buffalo bounce back from its worst loss of the year? It starts with receiver changes, as our Joe Buscaglia explained, though these might be forced due to injuries to tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) and receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle, ribs). It’s expected to be cold and windy in Buffalo, so a heavy dose of James Cook is inevitable.
2. Lions at Eagles (-2.5), 8:20, NBC. Two of the most talented teams in the spotlight game. Sign me up. Keep an eye on Eagles edge rushers Nolan Smith Jr. and Jaelan Phillips. After the latter joined via a deadline trade with the Dolphins, Phillips wreaked havoc on the Packers last week. Jared Goff has historically struggled against pressure, after all.
1. Seahawks at Rams (-3), 4, Fox. I mean … Matthew Stafford, the league’s top quarterback, is playing the best ball of his career. Sam Darnold isn’t far behind, leading the NFL in yards per dropback. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are among the top receivers, and both defenses rank top-five in most metrics. What more could you want?
Now, Ted Nguyen’s explainer on a top 2025 QB’s weakness.
What Ted’s Seeing: A Colts blueprint?
From my Week 10 film review: Colts quarterback Daniel Jones struggled for a second week in a row. Have defenses found a way to slow down 8-2 Indianapolis?
In Week 10, the Falcons took away the Colts’ inside-breaking routes by crowding inside zones and having their safeties play flat-footed, ready to jump in-breaking routes. Jones finished with negative expected points added (EPA) per dropback for only the second time this season. That made it back-to-back weeks, however.
In Week 9, the Steelers condensed space for the Colts’ receivers with man coverage and got edge pressure. They caught Jones by surprise a few times with extra bodies in coverage, and he finished with an EPA per dropback of minus-0.30, the league’s worst mark that week.
Only Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields have averaged a lower EPA per dropback than Jones since Week 8 ended.
Could teams be challenging Jones to beat them deep? Deep accuracy was an issue during his Giants tenure, as Jones doesn’t have the strongest arm and his deep ball tends to sail.
Even when Jones beat the Falcons over the top, it required a spectacular catch by Alec Pierce, since Jones’ pass was underthrown, giving Atlanta’s safety time to get back to the ball.
On this play, the Colts had tight end Tyler Warren (inside top) and Pierce (outside top) running deep in-breaking routes. Warren’s route was designed to hold the safety for Pierce to get over the top.
Safety Xavier Watts (red circle) initially stepped up to cover Warren’s route, so Pierce had room downfield — see GIF below.
Jones made the right read, but more arm was needed to lead Pierce, who had a step on the defense. Instead, Jones’ ball was slightly underthrown, holding up Pierce and forcing him to outjump two defenders, as the safety Watts had time to get back to the area.
This one was still on target, but Jones ranks 27th in on-target rate on throws of 30 or more air yards.
Overall, the Colts couldn’t get the ball to the intermediate in-breakers that they’ve feasted on all season. They won against the Falcons because Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line took over, but we’ll see if more defenses are willing to challenge Jones to throw deep against them.
For more film review: How one Broncos safety is carrying on the spirit of Troy Polamalu’s style.
Extra Points
🕹 NFL x gambling. The league is working to limit player-based props, according to a memo sent to all 32 teams and obtained by The Athletic. More details here.
🗺 Waiting for a QB? NFL executives aren’t excited by what they consider a lackluster 2026 class, and “some of the younger guys are leaning toward going back” for NIL money.
👀 Ben Johnson’s secret weapon. Case Keenum is a 37-year-old journeyman quarterback. Dan Pompei explains why Keenum’s exactly what Chicago needed.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Daniel Popper re-grades the NFL free-agent class of 2025, led by Darnold and Milton Williams.
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