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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves will next week unveil the most “boring” spring economic statement in years, as she seeks to deliver a “stability dividend” for business and shore up an embattled Sir Keir Starmer.
After the months of business uncertainty caused by November’s Budget, Reeves has deliberately stripped back her March 3 Commons statement, which her allies say will contain little or no new policy.
Instead, the chancellor will simply respond to economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility and argue that her plan is starting to bear fruit, giving business a break from years of Treasury policy churn.
“It will be a very, very boring Spring Statement showing the plan is working,” said one minister. “There will be no gimmicks. We promised one fiscal event a year and that’s what we’re doing.”
Reeves’ allies expect her to speak for little more than 20 minutes and she will not carry her “spring forecast” statement to the House of Commons in the chancellor’s famous red box.
Some in the Treasury had expected Starmer to insist that Reeves’ statement contained some “goodies” — for example, more measures to cut the cost of living — but the prime minister has backed her no-frills approach.
One Labour official said: “The prime minister’s whole strategy is to show that he offers stability. That’s the message of the Spring Statement — that the plan is working and we’re getting on with the job.”
Reeves will strike an optimistic tone in an attempt to rally Labour MPs, who are braced for possible defeat in Thursday’s Gorton and Denton by-election in Manchester.
Rain Newton-Smith, head of the CBI employers’ group, said after the fiscal convulsions of 2025 — and widespread speculation about what would be in last year’s Spring Statement and Autumn Budget — business wants a break.
“They are hoping that the Spring Statement is dull in terms of fiscal announcements,” she told the FT. “We’re expecting an update on the forecasts and then businesses can get on with their job of investing and creating jobs.
“In a time of geopolitical upheaval, there’s a lot to be said for dull and steady.”
Starmer’s political survival earlier this month in the face of intense criticism from Labour MPs was achieved partly because the markets and business made it clear they did not want a leadership contest and further instability.
Reeves, who continues to enjoy support from many investors, will claim that her last Budget — which increased the size of her fiscal “buffer” against future shocks — had helped to calm the bond market.
Labour MPs say the mood in the Treasury is “bullish”, in spite of anaemic growth forecasts for 2026 and ongoing pressures on public spending, particularly on the defence budget.
The chancellor was this month hit by a downgrade by the Bank of England to its growth forecasts, with central bank officials now predicting growth of 0.9 per cent this year, well below the OBR’s November forecast of 1.4 per cent GDP growth.
But some indicators point to a recent pick-up in UK economic growth. For example, growth in the manufacturing and services sector edged up in February to the highest level since April 2024, according to the S&P Global Flash UK PMI composite output index.
The Treasury enjoyed a record budget surplus of £30.4bn in January, as the fiscal position was buoyed by higher tax receipts, while retail sales grew by the most since May 2024.
Treasury officials believe 2026 will see interest rates continue to fall from their current 3.75 per cent and that inflation will return to the BoE’s 2 per cent target around the middle of the year.
“The talk is about a stability dividend,” said one Treasury official, adding that the phrase was preferred in One Horse Guards Road to a “dullness dividend”.
Reeves will present the forecasts and then highlight her intention to speed up the delivery of pro-growth measures later in the year. A speech on growth is expected to follow later in March.
The OBR’s forecasts were leaked on its website on Budget day in November just before Reeves got to her feet, so security around the spring forecast will be paramount, according to government officials.
“We’re publishing it on their behalf while they sort out their security ahead of the autumn Budget,” said one Treasury official.
Meanwhile, Reeves is hoping to build closer economic ties with the EU, and a UK/EU summit is expected “at the beginning of July”, according to EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič.
British officials said no date had been fixed for the meeting, at which both sides hope to liberalise trade in food and energy and the details of a youth mobility scheme. June 23 marks the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote.