The four teams that will take the field on Championship Sunday are familiar with Super Bowl runs — even if the 2025 editions of three of these franchises (the Seahawks, Broncos and Patriots) look awfully different from the last time they won a title.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship matchups, while The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model, reveals the odds each team has to advance to and win the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3, 2-0 playoffs)
It’s a new twist on an old playoff rivalry, as the Broncos and Patriots meet in Denver for the AFC Championship Game for the third time in the last 12 years.
The quarterback story is markedly different this time around, though. MVP candidate and second-year sensation Drake Maye squares off with Jarrett Stidham, who will make his postseason debut after Broncos starter Bo Nix fractured his ankle in overtime on Saturday.
Peyton Manning outdueled Tom Brady in the organizations’ prior pair of showdowns in the conference title game. The Broncos have won four of their five playoff meetings with the Patriots.
But they’ll have to play well across the board to offset the quarterback mismatch. Stidham, a Patriots 2019 fourth-round draft pick, started two games for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022 and two for the Broncos in 2023. He has taken 18 snaps in garbage time over the past two seasons.
The Broncos are coming off their first playoff win in a decade by dumping reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, 33-30, in overtime. Allen threw two interceptions and fumbled three times, losing two; rushing champ James Cook also lost a fumble. While the Broncos have been one of the league’s best defenses this season, their 14 regular-season takeaways were tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL, so they weren’t expecting a 5-1 avalanche in the turnover department.
This was the type of defensive performance that could lead the Broncos in one of two directions. Since they led the NFL with 68 sacks, allowed the second-fewest yards and third-fewest points and have now won 14 of 15 games, a turnover wave might have been inevitable. And if it continues, the Broncos would be dangerous enough to take down anyone, regardless of their quarterback situation.
To that point, the Patriots were sound with the ball in the regular season, as their 16 giveaways were tied for the ninth-fewest in the NFL. But Maye has six fumbles (three lost) and two interceptions in two playoff games; the Broncos will be on the hunt.
However, there’s another direction this could go for Denver’s defense. The Bills had 449 yards, averaged 5.8 yards per play, went 10 of 15 on third down, 1 of 1 on fourth down and amassed 28 first downs overall. The Bills lost because they shunned the football, but they were otherwise in total control. The Patriots will study those tendencies to attempt to replicate that success.
Defensively, the Patriots have also been at their best in the postseason. They had four interceptions and a fumble recovery in a 28-16 victory against the Texans, and New England has only allowed one touchdown in its two playoff wins. The Patriots sacked Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud nine times.
The Patriots, who are in the AFC Championship Game after an arduous seven-year drought, need an about-face from Maye with his ball security, but his passing numbers have been good enough in his first postseason. He’s 33 of 56 for 447 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions against two top-five defenses, and he’ll get the No. 2 defense this week in Denver.
NFC
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The Seahawks have already won the NFC West once this season. They’ll essentially have to do it again to reach the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks and Rams split their two regular-season meetings, and their Week 16 clash might have been the game of the year. The Seahawks won, 38-37, in overtime on “Thursday Night Football” to seize control of the NFC West.
Two years ago, Seahawks general manager John Schneider was at mass and prayed the Baltimore Ravens would lose in the AFC Championship Game so he could meet with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald for their head coaching vacancy. Now firmly entrenched with the Seahawks, Macdonald already has them back in the NFC title game for the first time in 11 years.
The Seahawks beat the brakes off the 49ers, 41-6, in the divisional round for a second consecutive high-stakes victory against that NFC West foe — they also beat San Francisco in the regular-season finale to clinch the NFC’s top seed. The Niners’ last two wins were against the Bears in Week 17 and the defending champion Eagles in the wild-card round, but they looked thoroughly overmatched in two losses to the Seahawks, who still appear to still be improving.
Seattle has won eight in a row, including four consecutive wins against playoff opponents by a combined 119-56. Quarterback Sam Darnold has played well when he’s limited turnovers, but he’s gotten a massive boost from a rushing attack that’s averaged 172.3 yards over the last four games.
They’re built on Macdonald’s defense, of course. The Seahawks sacked quarterback Brock Purdy twice, intercepted him once and recovered two fumbles against the 49ers. In the regular season, the Seahawks led the NFL in points allowed and ranked third against the run, sixth in takeaways (25) and tied for seventh in sacks (47).
Matthew Stafford is a different challenge, though. The MVP candidate hasn’t played up to his standard in the Rams’ two playoff wins, including their 20-17 overtime thriller against the Bears in the divisional round, but he’s done enough.
The question is whether the Rams can match the Seahawks’ ascension. While Seattle has looked thoroughly impressive during its late-season run, the Rams are just 5-3 since Thanksgiving, and they haven’t played with the same gear they had displayed for much of the season.
Perhaps, there’s something to be said for collecting scars along the way. And they won’t care one bit about the NFC West T-shirts if they can topple the Seahawks to get back to the Super Bowl.