Welcome to week 16 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where a flurry of late goals has turned our competition on its head.
There have been so many in the final stages of games this season. Of the 423 scored so far in this Premier League campaign, just 49 (11.5 per cent) have come in the opening 15 minutes. A frankly absurd 116 (27.4 per cent) have been from the 76th minute onwards.
One very obvious factor is the amount of stoppage time being played. The opening 15 minutes of a game only last… well, obviously, 15 minutes. The final 15 of one, from the 76th minute onwards, can often be extended to nearer 25 minutes at a stage in proceedings when legs and minds are tiring.
Five of last weekend’s 10 Premier League matches featured a late goal, with four of them arriving in added time. Of the five, four dramatically changed the result: Emiliano Buendia’s 95th-minute winner for Aston Villa over Arsenal; Ao Tanaka’s 96th-minute equaliser for Leeds against Liverpool; Georginio Rutter’s 91st-minute leveller for Brighton against West Ham and, finally, Marc Guehi’s 87th-minute effort for Crystal Palace to beat Fulham.
We sometimes see tables telling us how different the Premier League might look if it weren’t for goals scored in the closing stages. (Short answer: worse for Brighton and Liverpool, a lot better for Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and even a bit better for Wolves.) But how about one showing us how different our predictions league table would look if it weren’t for those dramatic late twists?
Oh, sorry. You didn’t seriously think I have the time or the inclination to actually work that out, did you… ?
But looking back at last weekend’s games, those five late goals earned me 10 extra points via correct scorelines at Villa Park and Craven Cottage and a correct result at Elland Road— all of which included a bonus point. This is only slightly mitigated by the loss of two points when Burnley’s stoppage-time consolation goal denied me a correct scoreline at Newcastle. In other words, I got lucky.
By contrast, those late goals brought six-year-old Wilfred four points for the 1-1 in Brighton, but he also watched six points slip through his fingers due to those late goals at Newcastle, Leeds and Fulham. Oh, it’s a cruel game, Wilfred.
I should explain.
Each week since the season began, four of us — a guest subscriber, an algorithm, young Wilfred and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas we all got a single point for tipping Newcastle to beat Burnley, I got a bonus point for predicting a Leeds draw with Liverpool.
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster, with the subscribers setting the early pace and then the algorithm taking over, but last weekend saw big jumps from Wilfred and me. That leaves the algorithm down in third, 12 points adrift of top spot, and the subscribers a further six points behind.
It has been a tough few weeks for the subscribers. Arsenal fan Nick got two points last week, having been frustrated by some of those late goals. I should say here that in week 12, I only got a single point.
This week’s guest subscriber is Matthew, a 45-year-old Brighton supporter from neighbouring Hove. Best of luck, Matthew!
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Liverpool vs Brighton, Saturday, 3pm UK/10am ET
Matthew says: “Liverpool evokes many memories for Albion fans old and new: Case, Mwepu, Trossard. Decent record over the last 12 matches, all competitions, between them, and Brighton are ahead on aggregate — just. Albion play better against bigger teams. Form patchy — for both sides; Brighton get a result at Anfield. 2-2.”
Liverpool 2-2 Brighton
Oli says: “It isn’t just in recruitment that Brighton are trendsetters. They were scoring early goals against Liverpool at Anfield long before it was fashionable. On their past three visits, they have taken the initiative and gone ahead inside 15 minutes. Liverpool fought back on all three occasions to avoid defeat and won the most recent two, 2-1, but their powers of recovery are not what they were. It’s hard to know what to expect from Liverpool — at the time of writing, the Mohamed Salah situation is unresolved — but perhaps we’ll see more of the defiance they showed against Inter in Milan on Tuesday. It would be about time.”
Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
The rest of Oli’s predictions
Chelsea vs Everton
Oli says: I wasn’t one of those who jumped on that fast-moving Chelsea bandwagon a few weeks ago. They had an excellent couple of months, culminating in that brilliant 3-0 win against Barcelona and an impressive 1-1 draw with Arsenal a few days later, but they are a team who — pretty much by design — lack maturity. I’ve predicted them to draw their past four Premier League games. They’ve actually won one, drawn two and lost one, so slightly better than I anticipated. They get Moises Caicedo back from suspension after this, which is a big positive, but their next five league games (Everton at home, Newcastle away, Aston Villa at home, Bournemouth at home, Manchester City away) suggest more bumps in the road ahead. Victory on Saturday is important.
Chelsea 2-1 Everton
Burnley vs Fulham
Oli says: I was bored at times watching Fulham earlier in the season, but I’ve really enjoyed their two most recent performances, even though they lost both games. Harry Wilson’s deft finish against Crystal Palace, after a lovely move, is probably my favourite goal of the season so far, while Samuel Chukwueze, who is on a season’s loan from Milan, is a joy to watch. I fancy a Fulham win — and perhaps a just little bit of gloating at their former manager Scott Parker’s expense from the away end.
Burnley 1-2 Fulham
Arsenal vs Wolves
Oli says: The Premier League likes to be known as the league where anyone can beat anyone. Well, do you know when the team bottom of the league last beat its leaders? That’s right, it was February 5, 2011 — Wolves beat Manchester United at Molineux, 2-1. It feels like we have seen a few more unpredictable results this season — thanks largely to Liverpool’s struggles — but this has to be just about the biggest long shot so far. My only question is whether it’s a breezy 3-0 or a resounding four, five or even more. I’ll go for 4-0. It’s the type of game where fit-again Viktor Gyokeres should take the opportunity to grab a goal or two.
Arsenal 4-0 Wolves
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Oli says: If this game had taken place in September, I would have predicted a home win. By October, I would have fancied City. Right now, I’m not sure which way to turn. I had it in mind that Palace are City’s bogey team after some memorable victories in recent years (most notably last season’s FA Cup final) but it’s still only four wins in the past 31 meetings. I suppose that does count as a bogey team where the modern City are concerned. I was leaning towards a draw, but I’ve talked myself into an away win.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Manchester City
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
Oli says: My initial feeling here was to pick Forest. But back-to-back wins should have improved the mood at Tottenham, and there’s also the fact they will have an extra 48 hours to recover from their midweek Champions League exertions on Tuesday, compared to Forest’s Thursday game in the Europa League. Hmm. Tough one, this…
Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham
Sunderland vs Newcastle
Oli says: Who would have imagined when Newcastle won the most recent Tyne-Wear derby 3-0, in an FA Cup third-round tie in January 2024, that, within two years, then second-tier Sunderland would be back in the Premier League, and looking down on their local rivals from the lofty heights of… hang on… ninth place, it says here? The point very much stands, but it must be ever so slightly galling for Sunderland fans that, even having continued to defy expectations at times in recent weeks, they are still only a point ahead of that lot from up the road. Such are the economic realities of the Premier League, but I just wonder if Sunday might be their day. They have belief, they have momentum, and they have had a full week to prepare for this, while Newcastle have been on a Champions League trip to Germany’s Bayer Leverkusen.
Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle
West Ham vs Aston Villa
Oli says: Do you know what annoys me? That West Ham’s home shirt this season is claret with blue trim, rather than claret with blue sleeves. “A clean, minimalistic aesthetic,” they called it at the kit launch in the summer. Nice words, but it just doesn’t look like West Ham. It looks like something Hearts should wear, or Torino. Aston Villa went through something similar in the early 2000s, ditching the blue sleeves. Southampton similarly shelved their stripes for a time. Villa came to their senses in the end. So will West Ham. Whether they will avoid relegation this season is a different question. I’m predicting a 10th win in 11 Premier League games for Villa.
West Ham 0-2 Aston Villa
Brentford vs Leeds
Oli says: This is a surprising choice for the marquee 4.30pm Sunday slot. Not really glamorous enough to pull in the casual audience and perhaps not one for the purist either, with a strong emphasis on set pieces and competing for second balls. But, with Leeds improving, it could be fun. The clubs’ previous meeting at the Gtech, in September 2022, was a 5-2 home win best remembered for an Ivan Toney hat-trick and Leeds’ head coach at the time Jesse Marsch losing his rag on the touchline. This one will be less open than that, but it should be fiercely competitive.
Brentford 2-2 Leeds
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Oli says: Remarkably, Bournemouth have beaten Manchester United 3-0 on their past two visits to Old Trafford. Both were at this time of year as well. But while I’m not too high on this latest United resurgence, I do feel they are a stronger proposition than they were last December or even 12 months before that. And Bournemouth have gone off the boil a bit recently, with only two points from six matches. Yes, home win for me.
Manchester United 2-1 Bournemouth