Welcome to week 12 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where I’m hoping the November international break hasn’t killed my newfound momentum.
After weeks of frustration, I finally forced my way to the top of the table last time out. I didn’t get a single scoreline right, but I did get seven correct results out of 10, taking me beyond the algorithm at long last.
Each week since the season began, four of us — a guest subscriber, six-year-old Wilfred, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results.
We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. We are also giving a bonus point for any “unique” correct prediction, so, for example, I got a bonus point for predicting Everton’s win over Fulham (as the others all went for a draw), but not for the more obvious suggestion that Chelsea would beat bottom-of-the-table Wolves at Stamford Bridge.
The most inspired prediction of the week came from our guest subscriber, Manchester City fan Weston, from Hoboken in the U.S. state of New Jersey. He correctly called West Ham’s 3-2 defeat of Burnley, earning four points (including a bonus point) in an excellent week for the subscribers. He picked up another bonus point for predicting Sunderland would draw with Arsenal.
Having led since week five, the algorithm now finds itself in second place and looking anxiously over its shoulder at the subscribers, who are just four points behind.
Oh, but hang on. The algorithm doesn’t get anxious. The algorithm just carries on, impervious to external factors, just coldly predicting 2-1 wins and 1-1 draws — bloodless, soulless, ruthless.
Even if we fall into a similar pattern in terms of scorelines, the rest of us are subject to preconceptions, whims and subconscious biases, making subjective evaluations rather than just going with what the data and the probabilities are telling the algorithm.
That brings us to this week’s guest subscriber, Collin, a Tottenham supporter from Richmond, Virginia, also in the United States. I can probably guess what he’ll choose for his game of the week, but the big question is whether he will go with his head or his heart when it comes to predicting the outcome.
Over to you, Collin.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday, 4.30pm UK/11.30am ET
Collin says: “The game of the week is undoubtedly the north London derby. Spurs will arrive after a frustrating home draw with Manchester United, while Arsenal return to action following a disappointing result against Sunderland and an injury-filled international break. Although Piero Hincapie and Cristhian Mosquera are no slouches, Gabriel’s absence gives Spurs hope, and their strong away form adds further optimism against Arsenal’s otherwise impenetrable defense. With both sides cautious, this derby should be a tight, cagey affair, where set-piece proficiency may ultimately decide an even tie.”
Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham
Oli says: “Gabriel is a formidable defender — second only to Virgil van Dijk in the Premier League over the past decade, I would suggest — and Arsenal are likely to be more vulnerable for his absence in the coming weeks. But they have a wealth of options in that department, including Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie, who are more than just promising understudies. Injuries are the main reason to doubt Arsenal this weekend, but Tottenham look rather depleted too, so might not be equipped to capitalise.”
Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham
Tottenham’s visit to Arsenal last season ended in a 2-1 defeat (Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
The rest of Oli’s predictions
Burnley vs Chelsea
Chelsea have a tough run of games coming up, with Barcelona and Arsenal visiting Stamford Bridge next week, so Enzo Maresca might be tempted to rest some of his star players for this trip to Turf Moor, especially some of those who have been away on international duty. I have a feeling Burnley will make life difficult for them. In the anticipation that everyone else will go for an away win, I’ll go for a draw in the hope of getting a bonus point.
Burnley 1-1 Chelsea
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
It all feels so different from last season, when Liverpool were relentless, but Forest, with a victory at Anfield and a hard-fought 1-1 draw at the City Ground, caused them more problems than any other team. There are dozens of factors behind both teams’ regression this term, but one very obvious one is the loss of momentum and, with it, confidence and belief. Both should find a little more rhythm in the coming weeks. For Liverpool, it seems like the challenge is simply to play their way back into form.
Liverpool 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth vs West Ham
The November international break seemed to come at a good time for Bournemouth, offering a clean break after a 4-0 defeat at Aston Villa, whereas West Ham could be forgiven for regretting the loss of momentum following back-to-back wins. This game is much harder to call than it would have been three weeks ago, but Bournemouth still seem that bit more vibrant.
Bournemouth 2-1 West Ham
Wolves vs Crystal Palace
Some Wolves supporters were a little annoyed that I questioned Rob Edwards’ decision to leave a Championship promotion challenge at Middlesbrough for a Premier League relegation battle at Molineux. But when a fanbase has spent recent months expressing concerns about the club’s direction under its owners, Fosun International, it doesn’t seem unreasonable for a journalist to suggest their new head coach might have his work cut out. Edwards will bring some much-needed positive energy, though. Some kind of positive result on Saturday would be a start.
Wolves 1-1 Crystal Palace
Brighton vs Brentford
What would these two clubs’ owners, Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham, who made their fortunes from sports betting, put their money on here if the regulations did not prevent them from doing so? I suspect they would steer clear of a game like this. I wish I could, too. I suspect others might go for a narrow Brighton win, so again I’ll go for a draw in the hope of picking up a bonus point.
Brighton 1-1 Brentford
Fulham vs Sunderland
It’s a worry for Fulham that their leading Premier League goalscorer is “own goals”, with three, but it’s also a concern that six of their 12 goals came in two matches: comfortable wins against Brentford and Wolves. Other than that latter victory, their performances over the past couple of months have been disconcerting. Sunderland’s have been anything but. They’re proving very hard to beat.
Fulham 1-1 Sunderland
Newcastle vs Manchester City
Because Arsenal don’t play until Sunday, a City win on Saturday evening would reduce the gap between them at the top of the table to a single point. This is one of their toughest-looking fixtures of the season, though Newcastle haven’t been playing well. In fact, two of Newcastle’s best Premier League performances so far in this campaign came at home to Liverpool and Arsenal, and they still lost in the dying moments of both games. I could see this match following a similar pattern.
Newcastle 1-2 Manchester City
Leeds vs Aston Villa
This is the start of a tough-looking run of fixtures for Leeds — Villa, City, Chelsea, Liverpool — and there’s an obvious danger that, for all the encouragement drawn at times in the opening weeks of the season, they are being sucked downwards. They will welcome the fact that three of these four fixtures are at Elland Road, but that brings pressure to make home advantage count. It won’t get any easier after Sunday. Another draw.
Leeds 1-1 Aston Villa
Manchester United vs Everton
Discussing the first year of Ruben Amorim at Manchester United on The Athletic FC Podcast last week, I found myself looking for positives. That their performances and results have been better this season is beyond question. They’re only two points off Chelsea in third, but they’re also only three clear of Everton in 13th. So yes, they’re better, but not drastically better. Similar can be said of Everton. The league table is so congested. Maybe it will become a little less so over the coming weeks.
Manchester United 2-1 Everton