During his decorated Hall of Fame career, Phil Jackson routinely found unique ways to offer words of wisdom. Navigating some of the biggest egos in basketball history while trying to stay sharp during the grind of the NBA regular season, Jackson regularly used in-season challenges to keep his players focused.
One Jackson statute that’s gained traction with common NBA fans over the last several years is the “40 before 20” rule. History indicates that if an NBA team reaches 40 wins during the regular season before 20 losses, that team has a credible chance at an NBA championship. A staggering 18 of the last 19 NBA champions fit the 40-before-20 criteria, with even deeper roots the further back you go.
With the Boston Celtics losing to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night — and falling out of 40-20 consideration with a 38-20 record — the 2025-26 season officially offers three candidates. The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons are the newest members of the exclusive regular-season club with strong potential ties to the championship.
Of course, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that a 40-before-20 team will win the 2026 NBA championship. Plenty of other contenders are worth keeping an eye on. If recent NBA playoffs are any indication, there are plenty of dangerous franchises lurking.
Strong title pedigree from 40-20 rule
NBA history indicates the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons are strongly positioned to make a title push. Law Murray, an NBA writer for The Athletic, extensively researched “40 before 20” and its value over decades of NBA play. The 40-20 rule has particularly strong backing in the modern era, after the 3-point line was added in 1979. But the rule still transcends across most NBA eras.
“I’m a strong believer of the 40 before 20 rule that Phil Jackson established,” Murray said. “Of the 79 champions in NBA history, only 17 won the title after failing to win 40 games before they lost 20 games. That’s 21.5 percent. Moreover, only four teams in the 3-point line era (since 1979) have won a championship without being a 40-before-20 contender (8.7 percent).
“And 18 of the last 19 champions [have cleared 40 before 20]. The exception was the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, and even the Bucks had to beat a 40-before-20 team in the NBA Finals in the Phoenix Suns.”
While the Thunder, Spurs and Pistons have history on their sides, current NBA title odds don’t necessarily see it that way. Oklahoma City remains the heavy title favorite after last season’s championship. But after the Thunder, the major sportsbooks all list the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Spurs, while the Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics remain in front of the Pistons.
For the teams that didn’t reach 40-before-20 status this season, history shows they’ll almost assuredly need to beat some combination of either the Thunder, Spurs or Pistons in order to claim a championship.
“The goal is always to be a 40-before-20 contender. But the next best thing is to be the team that can beat a 40-before-20 contender,” Murray said. “That’s what the 2021 Bucks did. That’s what the 2006 Miami Heat did, knocking off the Pistons to get to the NBA Finals and then beating the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals. The 2004 Pistons beat the Indiana Pacers to get to the Finals and set up the only NBA Finals in the 3-point line era that featured two teams that weren’t 40-before-20 contenders [against the Lakers]. The 1995 Rockets arguably had the toughest road to repeat in league history, going through 40-before-20 contenders in every round (Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Magic).”
Although the Nuggets, Cavaliers and Celtics hold strong title odds among teams that didn’t qualify for 40-before-20 status, the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves also remain dangerous with the postseason approaching.
“The Celtics have stayed relevant in the East with Jaylen Brown leading the way, and Jayson Tatum represents one of the most intriguing late season injury-return wild cards the league has seen in a long time,” Murray said. “The Knicks have the firepower and were just in the Conference Finals. The Rockets have Kevin Durant and a strong defense. The Nuggets won in 2023 and have the best offense in the league. The Cavaliers have played the best basketball in the league since New Year’s Day. And the Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals.”
Another key milestone to clear
One interesting wrinkle to keep tabs on before the playoffs is whether contenders stay under 30 losses the remainder of the regular season.
To go a step further from 40-20, the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2006 Miami Heat are the only NBA champions since 1979 with 30 or more losses during the regular season. The 2004 Pistons and 2021 Bucks didn’t reach 40-before-20 status, yet still stayed under 30 losses for the regular season, with Milwaukee being aided by a COVID-shortened 72-game regular season.
In recent years, the 2022 Golden State Warriors and 2023 Denver Nuggets both finished with 29 regular-season losses after clearing 40-before-20 status. The 2022 Warriors overcame an injury-riddled 7-16 stretch before winning their final five games of the regular season and turning on the jets in the postseason. Denver finished a sluggish 9-10 across March and April before a dominant 2023 postseason run saw them go 16-4.
It would take catastrophic misfortunes for any 40-before-20 team to come close to 30 regular-season losses this season. But if you believe a title can come from outside the top favorites, it’s probably best that they close the regular season in solid form.