Before the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night, we had so many questions.
How far does Texas move up? How far does Texas A&M move down? Will James Madison make an appearance? Does Miami’s win over Notre Dame matter yet? Does Ole Miss incur a Lane Tax? Does Vanderbilt continue to pay a Vanderbilt Tax? Why is “penultimate” such a satisfying word to write and say, and how can we use it more often in our daily lives?
The penultimate rankings can be summed as such: JMU is in, Texas didn’t move up enough, Ole Miss didn’t pay the tax and Alabama moved ahead of Notre Dame for reasons unknown. Also, the penultimate rankings are disappointing because they’re leading us toward a Playoff that isn’t as good as it could and should be. But rather than use this space to complain like usual, I will offer suggestions. After all, Sunday is the ultimate opportunity to complain.
The committee is blending metrics and the eyeball test to put together a field, which is fine in theory, but each week has produced at least one head-scratcher and more contradictory statements than that. So maybe it would help to separate those things and rank purely on one and then purely on the other.
Achievement Rankings
Good wins, bad losses, schedule strength, strength of record. We’re keeping it to that because the deeper football metrics belong to the Eyeball Rankings. Subjectivity still creeps into this, because the committee has generally rewarded good wins more than it has penalized for bad losses, which is typical of the basketball committees as well. And that’s the way it should be because the ultimate question is: Can this team win games in this tournament? Still, how much more does good matter than bad? How good is really good and how bad is really bad? Also, if an opponent drops to 26, does that suddenly carry much less weight than if the opponent sat at 25? It shouldn’t. It’s one spot. Here’s how I see it:
1. Georgia, 11-1 (wins over Ole Miss, Texas, at Tennessee, quality loss to Alabama; No. 19 schedule strength; No. 4 strength of record)
2. Indiana, 12-0 (wins at Oregon, at Iowa; No. 51 schedule strength; No. 3 strength of record)
3. Ohio State, 12-0 (wins over Texas, at Illinois, at Michigan; No. 60 schedule strength; No. 1 strength of record)
4. Texas A&M, 11-1 (wins at Notre Dame, at Missouri; quality loss at Texas; No. 15 schedule strength; No. 2 strength of record)
5. Ole Miss, 11-1 (win at Oklahoma, quality loss at Georgia; No. 32 schedule strength; No. 5 strength of record)
6. Texas Tech, 11-1 (wins vs. BYU, at Utah; quality loss at Arizona State without starting QB; No. 54 schedule strength; No. 8 strength of record)
7. Oklahoma, 10-2 (wins at Alabama, at Tennessee, vs. Missouri; quality losses vs. Ole Miss, Texas; No. 14 schedule strength; No. 9 strength of record)
8. BYU, 11-1 (wins vs. Utah, at Arizona, at Iowa State, at Cincinnati; quality loss at Texas Tech; No. 38 schedule strength; No. 6 strength of record
9. Oregon, 11-1 (wins over USC, at Iowa, at Washington, quality loss vs. Indiana; No. 39 schedule strength; No. 7 strength of record)
10. Alabama, 10-2 (wins at Georgia, at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Tennessee; bad loss at Florida State, quality loss vs. Oklahoma; No. 13 schedule strength; No. 10 strength of record)
11. Texas, 9-3 (wins vs. Texas A&M, Oklahoma (neutral), Vanderbilt; quality losses at Ohio State, at Georgia, bad loss at Florida; No. 4 schedule strength; No. 23 strength of record)
12. Vanderbilt, 10-2 (wins at Tennessee, vs. Missouri; quality losses at Alabama, at Texas; No. 16 schedule strength; No. 11 strength of record)
That leaves Texas and Vanderbilt out of the field while the Group of 5 representative and ACC champ (or second Group of 5 representative, perhaps, if Duke wins) take the final two spots. The first three outside the rankings are, in order …
- Miami, 10-2 (wins vs. Notre Dame, at Pittsburgh; quality losses at SMU, at Louisville; No. 37 schedule strength; No. 12 strength of record)
- Notre Dame, 10-2 (wins vs. USC, at Pittsburgh; quality losses at Miami, vs. Texas A&M; No. 47 schedule strength; No. 13 strength of record)
- Utah, 10-2 (wins vs. Cincinnati, Arizona State; quality losses at Texas Tech, at BYU; No. 49 schedule strength; No. 14 strength of record)
And if we’re just going by the metrics, the teams with the best combinations of schedule strength and strength of record are: Texas A&M (15 and 2 for a total of 17), Georgia (19 and 4 for a total of 23), Alabama (13 and 10 for a total of 23), Oklahoma (14 and 9 for a total of 23), Texas (4 and 23 for a total of 27) and Vanderbilt (16 and 11 for a total of 27). SEC bias? This is what happens when your league fares the best against the other Power 4, which is a handy reminder for doomsayers predicting an end to impactful nonleague scheduling.
Eyeball Rankings
This is simple. These are the teams that look the best. Or should look the best, if you’ve been watching games and not scouting helmets. And it also relates to recent performance because, as anyone who follows football knows, some teams can improve dramatically in the course of a season. Some teams find consistency. Some remain erratic. The committee never wants to identify this directly as a factor, but of course, they put more weight on recent performance.
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Vanderbilt
- Alabama
- Miami
- Texas
- Texas A&M
Apologies to Oklahoma, BYU and Utah, but the teams listed look better than you. And that’s taking into account the fact that Texas A&M ended up with a shockingly easy SEC schedule, relatively speaking. And that Texas got the win over the Aggies two weeks after being completely dismantled at Georgia. And that Alabama had a November fade, allowing an Oklahoma team with a terrific defense but dreadful offense to storm in and claim a spot.
So the teams that made both polls are Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, Alabama, Texas and … Vanderbilt. In other words, per this unimpeachable science, these are the nine teams that most belong in the field — and if you haven’t watched a lot of Vandy and have your doubts, this offense is No. 1 in the FBS in yards per play (7.54), tops in the Power 4 in points per play and No. 2 behind Indiana in points per drive. With arguably the best player in the nation, Diego Pavia, at the controls.
It’s the offense I would most like to see take a crack at that Ohio State defense. But that won’t happen. Someone is going to be wronged every year. Vanderbilt heads the list this year. Yes, I know, all non-SEC precincts are shedding a tear that Greg Sankey’s league is only getting five teams in this year. But still.
“Now that Tennessee is no longer ranked, they just don’t have a signature win,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said of Vanderbilt, which stayed at No. 14 despite a 45-24 win at its No. 19-ranked rival on Saturday, which meant no reward for the Commodores but a massive punishment of at least seven spots for the Vols.
Which is quite convenient, and interesting, considering Yurachek gave Alabama credit for gutting out a tough 27-20 win at rival Auburn, part of the reasoning for Bama jumping Notre Dame. The same Auburn that finished 5-7 and was used as a criticism against Vanderbilt a few weeks ago because Auburn took that game to overtime.
Thank goodness these were the penultimate attempts to rationalize the committee’s choices, too.