Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
Welcome to the third edition of this year’s NHL Awards Watch, conveniently timed at the league’s Olympic break. That makes it a great time to check in where each of the awards races currently stand — and boy do we actually have some races this season.
The Hart, Norris, and Selke all look spicy after the first half and while each race has a clear front-runner, the gap doesn’t seem nearly wide enough in any race to crown a victor just yet.
Everything can still change in the final quarter, but for now we’ve got a lot of interesting things to watch across the board. Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here’s how each of the key races currently shake out.
Data as of Feb. 6
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
In the first half of the season, this looked like an open-and-shut case in Nathan MacKinnon’s favor thanks to his scoring and five-on-five dominance. A slow month from him and some major heat elsewhere has turned the race at the top into a serious discussion. MacKinnon has a lot of company with the way Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov have been playing. With the two so close in production, it’s going to be really tough separating the three.
MacKinnon’s case is still predicated on five-on-five dominance. The Avalanche are up 73-25 in his minutes, a truly preposterous number. McDavid’s case depends on him being the points leader and how much of a ‘luck’ pass he gets at five-on-five. The Oilers are only up 52-48 in his minutes, but his impact on xG is the highest of the three with 57.2 percent of expected goals and a relative impact of 0.66 per 60, one of the highest marks in the league. Net Rating considers both, but still leans MacKinnon at five-on-five.
As for Kucherov, a third straight Art Ross could do the trick and he has the narrative edge of his current hot streak breaking current precedents in production. When a player’s numbers start looking Gretzky-like, it’s impossible to ignore. It’s also worth mentioning just how strong Kucherov has been at five-on-five. In previous years, the main thing holding him back by Net Rating was a lesser ability to drive play (especially defensively). This year, his puck possession rate is right there with MacKinnon and McDavid, though his minutes aren’t quite as difficult.
All in all, just 3.5 goals separates MacKinnon (plus-33.2), Kucherov (plus-30.1) and McDavid (plus-29.7) in Net Rating per 82. It’s going to be a tight finish.
It’s hard to imagine anyone catching those three in Net Rating, but there are two other contenders worth discussing: the best goalie in the world and the most-valuable-to-his-team guy.
Ilya Sorokin has been marvelous this season and the New York Islanders wouldn’t be anywhere close to the playoffs without him. The gap between him and the average goalie would be the fifth-largest among skaters, which puts him right in the “should be on ballots” conversation.
Notably absent from this list is another guy who will probably make a lot of ballots: Macklin Celebrini. He currently ranks 14th in Net Rating at plus-13.8, but he has a lot less help than the other guys on this list. The gap between him and the next best Shark currently sits at 10.3 goals, one of the largest-ever divides between a team’s first- and second-best players. I’m not usually someone who gets cute with the ‘to his team’ part of the MVP award description, but Celebrini’s case is extreme enough to warrant consideration.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating.
The first edition of Awards Watch this season had Cale Makar comfortably ahead of the competition, enough to believe he would cruise to his third Norris trophy. At the 25-game mark he had a plus-11.5 Net Rating, a plus-37.7 pace that would’ve been a high-water mark for the analytics era. In 30 games since, he’s at just plus-4.5 — a much more ordinary plus-12.3 pace. Makar’s scoring has slowed down to the point that he’s now fifth in points per game amongst defensemen.
Makar’s full-season numbers are still great at both ends of the ice and he still leads all defensemen in Net Rating. But boy, has he allowed the field to catch up and make this interesting. Here are the top challengers:
Zach Werenski: the offensive choice
The most goals, the most points and doing it as the team’s top offensive driver. That Werenski has scored five more goals and points than Makar in three fewer games is a big deal given he doesn’t have the benefit of playing with Nathan MacKinnon. On a per-game basis, he’s neck-and-neck with Makar in Net Rating and may deserve more praise for that given the way he gets there with stronger underlying numbers and less help.
Moritz Seider: the defensive choice
His point pace may have slowed down a touch (seven points in his last 15), but Seider’s elite defense is still the draw here. Seider’s 57.7 percent xG rate leads the top candidates, a direct result of allowing just 2.22 expected goals against per 60, an impressive mark given his usage. Seider’s relative impact at five-on-five is among the highest in the league. Many always clamor for a defensive defenseman to get more Norris consideration; in the analytics era there’s never been a better choice than Seider. That he still ranks second in total value with defense being his primary driver is unheard-of.
Jake Sanderson: the two-way choice
If you want a little more offense than Seider’s 54-point pace, Sanderson is the next-best bet. He’s not getting much hype for the season he’s having, but Sanderson has been a two-way machine, posting slightly worse defensive numbers than Seider but also slightly better offensive numbers. He’s a tough-minutes workhorse on pace for 66 points, an impressive feat considering how strong he is without the puck.
Quinn Hughes: the new-home choice
There are two versions of Hughes this year: the one playing through injury and a broken Adam Foote system, and the one thriving with the Wild. The latter version has been so unbelievably good that it’s mostly erased the slow start of the former. Through 26 games with the Canucks, Hughes played at a Net Rating pace of plus-8.6. In 26 games with the Wild, that pace has climbed to plus-33.2 — MVP-caliber stuff. If he keeps going at that rate and Makar keeps falling at his, there’s a real chance Hughes is the Net Rating leader by season’s end.
Lane Hutson: the up-and-coming choice
Turns out last year’s Calder winner was playing at a major disadvantage last season on his off side. Hutson has exploded over the last few months playing on his strong side, looking every bit the mini-Hughes many figured he might one day become. His offense is right up there with the other league greats, and he is far from the defensive sieve he’s often made out to be. Few control the game like Hutson and while he may not win this year, this is a big reputation-building season that can pave the way for future wins to come. The really scary part: what he’s been doing lately on a pair with Noah Dobson. The two have a 64 percent xG rate together and have outscored opponents 17-6 in just under 200 minutes. They look like the new Makar-Toews.
That’s six players with a really strong case, which will make filling out ballots a real challenge. I’ve got time for the other four — Jakob Chychrun, Josh Morrissey, Evan Bouchard, Darren Raddysh — but they’re a step behind that top tier.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
After a brief defensive lull where he slid momentarily to second in Defensive Rating, Nick Suzuki is back atop the leaderboard with a plus-5.1 Defensive Rating. He’s maintained his excellent play at five-on-five and his short-handed ice time is up around one minute per game — enough to not be a non-issue for voters. A lot of Suzuki’s five-on-five impact is results-driven, but even his impact on xG looks strong given his role. With some of the hardest assignments in the league, the Canadiens allow 0.16 fewer expected goals against per 60 with Suzuki on the ice. He’s been excellent.
Down the list, last month’s surprise leader Charlie Coyle has slowed down defensively (while picking things up offensively!) and dropped to fifth. Surpassing him are last year’s Defensive Rating leader (Sam Reinhart) and a couple of defensive depth standouts who have played extremely well in elevated roles (Yanni Gourde and Noah Cates).
While a lot of people love Anthony Cirelli, it’s Gourde doing a lot of the defensive heavy lifting for the Lightning this season. His line has taken on the tough matchups and the defensive zone starts, and he’s been dominant in those minutes. The Lightning have allowed just 2.2 xGA/60 with Gourde on the ice compared to Cirelli’s 2.93, and they’re getting similarly strong actual results (1.93 GA/60). Cates has been stronger relative to teammates with a huge edge in actual results, but the heavy usage Gourde takes on gives him the edge.
Down the list, Roope Hintz and Mitch Marner have had strong defensive impacts, but have notably played secondary competition this season behind Wyatt Johnston and Jack Eichel (though the gap is smaller for Hintz). Matty Beniers and Shane Pinto fly under the radar for their defensive contributions, while Artturi Lehkonen is currently Colorado’s shutdown standout.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
Any way you slice it, Matthew Schaefer has put up one of the strongest seasons ever for an 18-year-old defenseman. He’s scored a mind-boggling 16 goals in 58 games, which is a 23-goal pace, and his 39 points puts him on pace for 55. He’s played extremely tough minutes for most of the year and has still managed to earn 47.4 percent of expected goals and 57.5 percent of actual goals — both near the team lead. On the whole, Schaefer has been the league’s best rookie this season.
But his recent underlying numbers have caused his value to stagnate a bit from his initial rocket-like trajectory. Schaefer is still getting results, which is great, but his 43 percent xG of late ranked fourth among regular New York Islanders defensemen. Again, that’s under seriously tough deployment which he gets credit for. But he has slowed from his initial pace, where he looked like he could surpass Cale Makar’s rookie-year Net Rating. Now he looks like he’ll fall a shade short. Given the age difference, that’s still incredibly impressive, but using the G-word (as I did in a previous edition of Awards Watch) may have been slightly premature. That it’s even a conversation he still could reach, though, speaks volumes about his talent.
As for the rest, the cream of the crop has risen as both Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke’s offense looks strong enough to more than make up for any defensive shortcomings. They both look worthy of nomination, with Demidov’s efficiency and stronger defense giving him the edge. Jesper Wallstedt’s game has regressed a bit, but he should still be right there in the top five.
After those four is a tier of interesting choices. Justin Sourdif has been a defensive stud for the Capitals, Ben Kindel has been an extremely pleasant surprise as an 18-year-old rookie himself, and Fraser Minten was particularly electric over the last month. Alexander Nikishin rounds out that group with steady play on the third pair.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team’s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving-Hockey, Hockey Stats and MoneyPuck.
I added a new goalie model to the criteria (this is a great read, by the way), but that doesn’t really matter this time around because they all say the same thing: Ilya Sorokin is king. No matter the source, the Islanders netminder leads all goalies in GSAx and should be the obvious choice for Vezina this season. He’s almost singlehandedly carried the Islanders into a playoff spot with his dominant play night in and night out. While his save percentage isn’t far off from Andrei Vasilevskiy or Logan Thompson, it’s the degree of difficulty that stands out. Doing this behind that defense is special.
After Sorokin, it’s a tough choice between Vasilevskiy and Thompson, who have both been special this season. Vasilevskiy has the winning edge that GMs love for this award, while Thompson has arguably been more critical to Washington’s success this season. Can’t go wrong with either.
Igor Shesterkin, despite missing the last month of action, still leads the next tier along with Jeremy Swayman, who has had a strong bounce back this season. Karel Vejmelka has been the league’s busiest workhorse which deserves some credit, while Jet Greaves has been excellent for a rising Columbus Blue Jackets team (although has seemingly lost the starting job to a red-hot Elvis Merzlikins).
Art Ross Trophy
Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
No one has been hotter than Nikita Kucherov over the last few months, as he’s on a Gretzky-like tear. That superhuman effort has vaulted him to the top of the Art Ross race where he’s now projected to win his third straight. Considering his competition, that’s an incredible feat. Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon currently have more points and can still make this race interesting, but it’s hard to bet against Kucherov with how he’s produced lately.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
Nathan MacKinnon has slowed down considerably since the last Awards Watch, with just five goals in 14 games, but he should still cruise to victory here. He has a six-goal lead over Connor McDavid with three games in hand while Leon Draisaitl is even further back. It’s possible the Oilers duo catches fire down the stretch, but this race still looks close to over.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stat Cards, Natural Stat Trick and NHL