Welcome back, survivors. It’s getting intense as we head into the second half of the season. Does it feel like any week could be your winning one? Let’s get there together.
This week, our survivor columnists, Renee Miller and Adam Gretz, take your questions and give specific advice, based on your pool scenarios. Keep an eye out for our calls for questions in future weeks, and Adam and Renee will try to answer as many questions as we can fit in.
In addition to taking questions, they are still giving their picks.
Week 10 survivor Q&A
Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Q: In a big survivor pool with about 45 left out of 250 … I’ve saved some good teams for the stretch run, but I’m worried about my next few weeks. Week 10: I got Buffalo on the road vs. Miami (scary divisional game), and Week 11 I got Dallas on the road vs. Las Vegas. After that, I’m fairly confident I can make it all the way, with Baltimore (Week 12), Chargers (Week 13), Philly, 49ers, KC, and TB for the following weeks all still left in the tank. How do you feel about those two upcoming picks, or would you use one of the powerhouses I mentioned above in weeks 10 or 11? — Nick G.
Adam: If you are truly worried about Buffalo in a divisional road game, you could save them for Week 16 against Cleveland. But if you do that, you need somebody else to swap in for the Bills this week, and I don’t really like any of those options. I know divisional road games can be tough, but Buffalo is just such a significantly better team than Miami, and they’ve won five of the past six games in Miami with Josh Allen at quarterback. Several of those games have been by multiple scores. I don’t really think you have a lot to worry about there, especially given the way the Dolphins look right now.
I would have a little more concern about Dallas against, well, anybody. Even though Dallas’ offense is capable of beating any team, Dallas’ defense is capable of losing to any team, even after getting Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. But I also don’t see a more favorable matchup for Dallas the rest of the way than that game. The Cowboys SHOULD win that.
I also don’t really like any of the other potential matchups for Week 11, given the teams you listed here. Maybe San Francisco against Arizona? But I feel like Dallas, flawed as it is, is a better bet against a bad Las Vegas team. I think you have set yourself up for the optimal path here, given the teams you have.
Under 20 people are left in my pool. I have Seattle, Denver and Buffalo available. Do I take one of those teams or try to save them and risk it with either the Bears or the Panthers? — Steven D.
Thirty-three left in my pool because of mulligans. GB messed up my planning last week. Panthers or the Bears are my best teams available for this week. Thoughts? —Christopher B.
Renee: Since these both ask basically the same question, I’ll answer them together. And I’ll have to spoil my chalk pick to do it: It’s Carolina for me, and it’s not that close. I’ll talk up the Panthers (and get down on the Saints) in my blurb below, but let me explain that choosing them instead of Chicago comes down to the Bears and Giants. The Bears are inexplicable this year. They’re good, they’re awful, they’re mediocre — sometimes all in the same game! — and you just never know what version of offense or defense is going to show up. They’ve won the games they should win, but they’ve all been a lot closer than they should have been if I am to believe in them for survivor.
The Giants are similar. More bad than good, yes, but anyone watching football can see that Jaxson Dart is dangerous. Beating the Eagles and Chargers but losing to the Saints?! They gave the 49ers a real run last week with some bold coaching and play-calling.
I do think Chicago will get the win here, but I’m afraid it’s going to be a nail-biter.
Eight people are left in my survivor pool. The available teams I have left are all less than six-point favorites. Ugh. Who do you like the most from the following: Panthers, Bears, Bucs or Chargers? — Stacey Y.
Renee: Carolina. See my answer above and my blurb below. Thoughts on the Bucs center on my fear of the Patriots. They’ve beaten the Bills and Dolphins on the road this season, and the Miami win was before the Dolphins lost Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller on offense. New England has the seventh-most points per game and seventh-highest scoring margin (plus-7.6 PPG), while Tampa Bay is around league average in that department (plus-2.4 PPG). The Patriots defense also allows the sixth-fewest points per game. That’s a lot for home-field advantage to overcome, especially given the injuries the Bucs are dealing with.
The Chargers don’t inspire a ton of confidence against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is red hot. I used them last week, and that first half was more than a little nerve-racking … and that was Tennessee. Pittsburgh has actually won tough games, notably against New England and Indianapolis. Yet they’ve lost to Cincinnati. It’s about trust, and I just don’t have it for L.A. or Tampa this week.
My pool is down to seven. I have already used the five biggest favorites this week (Denver, Buffalo, Detroit, Seattle and Indianapolis). Four of the remaining survivors in my pool have Denver available to them, another has Buffalo available and the other has Seattle. All of us have Carolina available, but I’m the only one who is on Carolina. The other teams I’m considering are Chicago and Baltimore (but I would like to save Baltimore for Week 11 or 12). This may be the first week of the season where I am the only person on a specific team (and therefore technically able to win it all this week). Is Carolina my best bet? If I survive this week, considering how small the pool has gotten, should I continue to factor in my predictions of other survivors’ picks when making my own picks? At what stage is that a smart strategy? — Jack W.
Adam: Let’s start with this week. I don’t like Baltimore this week. I know there is a belief around the NFL that the Ravens are about to go on a run and be unbeatable the rest of the way, especially after crushing a bad Miami team on Thursday, but I don’t think this game against Minnesota is a slam dunk. The Ravens still have some flaws on defense, and the Vikings have the personnel that can burn any defense on any given week. I would avoid that game.
The Bears should beat the Giants, but I don’t know if I’m as confident in that outcome as I am with Carolina. And that’s not so much due to any newfound belief in Carolina as much as it is a complete lack of belief in a New Orleans team that was already bad and sold off some key pieces on Tuesday. The jury is still out on the Panthers from a big-picture perspective, but trust them as a heavy favorite this week.
I don’t think it’s ever a bad strategy to start looking at what your other contenders are doing with their weekly picks, especially when you’re getting down to the end and have a chance to actually win the whole thing. But there is a fine line between being strategic and galaxy-braining yourself where you overthink it. At the end of the day, you still need to make sure you get to the next week to win.
In my pool, there’s 9 percent left (196), but the problem for me is that Week 12 is a double-pick week, so I have Baltimore and San Francisco pegged. However, I do not quite trust SF, so I’m wondering if I should switch to Buffalo so I have them for Week 12 and either use Denver or Carolina [this week]? I took your advice to plan in blocks, so I have Houston for Week 11 before I re-evaluate Week 13-18, assuming I make it to Week 13. — Leland A.
Renee: I love Carolina or Denver this week. There is no other week I’d like to use Carolina, so I’m burning them now. Denver has value in Week 14, but I have no issue using them now if you saved them. Baltimore is a must-pick in Week 12, but if you’re deciding between Buffalo and SF for your second pick that week, I would stick with SF. A lot can change between now and then injury-wise, but SF is looking to be getting healthier and is a bigger home favorite. I want to see more of Houston over the next couple of weeks, but they’ve come a long way, and I don’t want to pick against them at home. I’m loving Houston in Week 11. Overall, I think your plan is sound and there’s no need to second-guess it!
Week 10 chalk picks
Adam and Renee will avoid writing about the most-used teams from previous weeks to serve the largest number of readers. But where relevant, they’ll still advocate for or against a previously popular team because not everyone will have used them.
Highest percentage by week: Denver (W), Baltimore (W), Seattle (W), Detroit (W), Arizona (L), Green Bay (W), Kansas City (W), Indianapolis (W), Los Angeles Rams (W)
The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 10 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread, from BetMGM, for each of their games as of Nov. 5.
Adam: Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals
If you still have the three big favorites this week at your disposal (Buffalo vs. Miami, Denver vs. Las Vegas and Detroit vs. Washington), they are obviously solid and, in all honesty, very safe picks. But they are not an option for us to write about this week, given that they’ve already been the most popular picks in previous weeks. But that’s okay, because there’s another big favorite that I like just as much this week, and it’s the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
I know Arizona is coming off a huge win on Monday night against Dallas, but the Seahawks are going to be an entirely different beast, especially in Seattle. The Seahawks have rapidly emerged as one of the best teams in the NFL and are clicking on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold is playing like an MVP candidate at quarterback, while the defense is allowing just 18.8 points per game.
I don’t know that Arizona’s 23rd-ranked pass defense has the personnel to slow down the Darnold/Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection, and I don’t know that Arizona’s offense, whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, can keep pace with them.
Renee: Carolina Panthers over New Orleans Saints
Carolina has been a punching bag for survivor leagues the last few years, but no more. They’ve already notched as many wins as they had all of last season and three more than they had in 2023. They piqued my interest when they shut out Atlanta at home, but now that they’ve won four of their last five games, I’m ready to pull the trigger on them. The one loss in that span was at home vs. Buffalo, and boy, it was a big one. Notably, after running back Rico Dowdle lit the fantasy football world on fire with back-to-back 200-plus yard performances, the team decided to go back to giving Chuba Hubbard the majority of opportunities out of the backfield. With that experiment failing dramatically against the Bills, the Panthers reverted to Dowdle in Week 9 and pulled off the upset of the season by beating the Packers in Green Bay.
Carolina has a young team with a lot of talent that is (mostly) being coached to their strengths. Having a head coach in Dave Canales, who believes in them and listens to them, reveals a whole new culture that is showing up differently on the field. Mistakes have been made, but Carolina is steadily improving. Especially at home.
New Orleans, on the other hand, continues to flounder. Their lone victory was against the Giants, and going forward, their Week 11 bye is looking like the high point of the season. New Orleans has the second-worst scoring margin in the league (minus-11.7 PPG) and is the second-lowest scoring team in the league. Making the QB change to Tyler Shough in Week 9 resulted in yet another dismal defeat at the hands of the L.A. Rams. With no Tennessee Titans to pick on this week, I’m all in on Carolina to dominate the sputtering Saints.
Week 10 contrarian picks
Renee: Cleveland Browns over New York Jets (!?)
Last year’s version of me is appalled at this, let me assure you. Even August 2025 me is wide-eyed with horror. Carolina and Cleveland are survivor pool recs?!? What has the world come to? Indeed, I hope I can sleep tonight.
Based on the reader questions we received this week, and the teams we need to hold onto, Carolina is going to be the chalkiest chalk in Week 10. So if you want to avoid that, just in case the Saints pull off the second-most surprising upset of the season, consider picking on another dumpster fire of a team in the Jets.
The Jets are in the bottom six in the league in both points scored and points allowed. What’s worse is their scoring margin at HOME, is minus-11 PPG.
Now, the 2-6 Browns are certainly no NFL juggernaut. However, they did beat the Packers and Dolphins, which isn’t nothing. Coming out of the bye, Cleveland has made a major change in that their offensive coordinator, Tommy Rees, will be calling the offensive plays going forward. That should involve a lot of rookie Quinshon Judkins, who should be ready to go after suffering a minor shoulder injury in Week 8. The Jets are one of the league’s worst run defenses, and the play of Judkins has been one of the few bright spots in the Cleveland offense.
I’m not really inclined to go contrarian here based on the fact that I’ve saved a lot of good teams my opponents haven’t in the weeks ahead (Baltimore, Buffalo, Philly, SF). I should be able to differentiate myself from a stronger position in Weeks 11, 12 and/or 13.
Adam: Jacksonville Jaguars over Houston Texans
I will preface this by saying a lot of this comes down to whether or not C.J. Stroud plays for the Texans, and early indications are that he will not play.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans said this week that the team is preparing for Davis Mills to start Sunday’s game as Stroud remains in concussion protocol. If it is indeed Mills that gets the start, Jacksonville immediately becomes a potential play.
For one, Houston’s offense was already a mess even with Stroud in the lineup. They do not pass-protect well, they do not run-block well, and it has brought the entire operation to a screeching halt at times. They are only 24th in points per game WITH Stroud playing.
That is not going to get better with Mills, whose 5-19-1 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL should not be filling anyone with confidence. Even on a short-term basis.
Jacksonville isn’t without its problems on offense, especially with the recent injury to Travis Hunter, but the Jaguars will have the significantly better quarterback in this game and should be able to scratch out enough points to beat a 3-5 Houston team that is likely playing its backup quarterback.