In Sunday’s AFC divisional game, the Houston Texans travel to Foxborough, Massachusetts, for a matchup with Mike Vrabel’s New England Patriots. With both teams coming off wild-card wins — and both featuring top-10 defenses — let’s take a closer look at the personnel and anticipated game plans.
Matt Bowen breaks it down and offers his take, and Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder share their best bets, analysis and DFS plays to help you get in on the action.
Note: Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
When the Texans have the ball
Bowen: With Nico Collins (concussion) out, Christian Kirk, who had 144 yards receiving in the wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Xavier Hutchinson and rookie Jayden Higgins will move up as targets for quarterback C.J. Stroud. With a Houston rushing attack featuring Woody Marks and a heavy zone-scheme approach, the Texans can mirror the pass game to set up play-action throws for Stroud, as they will have to generate explosive plays down the field.
Edge: Patriots
Best bet: Woody Marks OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-110). Marks has rushed for at least 70 yards in two of his past three games, including 112 yards versus Pittsburgh last week. I see a Texans offense that is going to focus on the run game.
When the Patriots have the ball
Bowen: Led by quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots will need answers for man coverage and two-deep zone versus a loaded Texans defense. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can scheme for Maye to play as a three-level ball distributor, while running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have the dual-threat ability to make impact plays for this offense.
Edge: Texans
Best bet: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112). Stevenson has 55 or more receiving yards in two of his past three games. He will be the checkdown/outlet for Maye, plus he can produce on screen concepts.
Staff picks, best bets and props
Patriots -3 (-120)
Maldonado: The Patriots have more ways to survive an ugly game. Houston’s defense is real, but the Texans are banged up and on the road. Asking C.J. Stroud to play clean football without much margin is a tall ask. The Patriots can take sacks, trade punts and still find enough explosive plays to separate late. With both teams struggling in the red zone, this comes down to field position, pressure and who makes the big mistake. That does not favor Stroud on the road.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-112)
Moody: Stevenson has cleared this line in five consecutive games while averaging 3.4 targets per contest over that span. His role as a receiver should help neutralize the Texans’ aggressive pass rush by giving Maye a reliable safety valve. Stevenson has also bested this number in four of his past five home games, further strengthening the case for the over.
Woody Marks OVER 1.5 receptions (-110)
Loza: Marks failed to convert his lone target at Pittsburgh last Monday night, but this week’s matchup leans in his favor. Though New England’s defense remains stout versus the run, the squad struggled to defend running backs through the air, allowing the fifth-most catches (an average of nearly five per game) to the position during the regular season. Chargers backup RB Kimani Vidal registered two grabs at Foxborough last weekend. The bar here is low enough for Marks to clear.
Kyle Williams OVER 5.5 receiving yards (-108)
Moody: The Texans’ secondary has been excellent at containing opposing pass catchers, but it will be busy with Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, and that could open opportunities for the rookie. Williams has flashed as a key deep-ball playmaker for Maye and the Patriots this season, averaging 20.9 yards per reception, which means he essentially needs just one catch to clear this line. He has the speed and route nuance to win downfield, and with Maye’s mobility, it’s easy to envision this duo connecting at least once against Houston. Williams has cleared this number in six of his past 10 games.
Kayshon Boutte 80+ receiving yards (+720)
Walder: There is one number that stands out about Boutte: 30% of his routes are either deep fades or go routes. That’s the highest among all wide receivers with at least 300 routes by far, with the next highest being Quentin Johnston at 23%. As such, I’ve been trying to bet Boutte’s long shot alternate receiving yards lines all year. Have I done it only in the weeks he hasn’t panned out? Sure. But why not try once more?
Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown
1:23
Why Stephen A. has doubts C.J. Stroud can lead Texans past Patriots
Stephen A. Smith explains why the odds are stacked against C.J. Stroud and the Texans heading into their AFC divisional round game against the Patriots.
Loza’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye ($16,800). The Texans’ defense is arguably the best in the league. But Maye’s versatile skill set makes him the most reliable facilitator of points.
Also in my lineup: Andy Borregales ($7,500) closed out the regular season with just one missed kick. He was perfect in the wild-card round, making all three field goal tries and an extra point versus the Chargers. Facing a Texans defense that limits scoring opportunities in what’s projected to be a low-scoring contest, Borregales’ leg figures to stay warm.
Maldonado’s recommendations
Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Drake Maye ($16,800) creates fantasy points even if drives stall because of scrambles, broken plays and late-game urgency. Houston’s pressure will cause sacks, but Maye’s legs and downfield aggression keep his ceiling intact.
Also in my lineup: C.J. Stroud ($10,200). His road splits are ugly, but he still touches the ball every snap and will be forced to throw if Houston trails. Even inefficient volume counts in fantasy. Garbage time and second-half passing keep him viable.