NFL best bets Week 12: Rams, Packers will roll

At this point, I don’t know what to say. My NFL Projection Model just keeps churning out winning weeks on its best bets, as we are now over 18 percent return on investment for the year. That’s insane. And unsustainable. I’ve said it multiple times over the past few weeks, but we are likely to come back down to earth after running so hot. Hopefully it doesn’t crash down all at once, but my expectation sits around the 5 percent figure when it comes to ROI. There is no secret recipe here; I’m not going to continue to hit at this rate, so remember to be smart with your bankroll management.

Last week’s record: 3-1, +1.82 units
Season record: 32-20, +10.37 units, +18.2% ROI

A small card to kick things off this week. I’ll be keeping an eye on Joe Burrow’s status. I’ll have some interest there, but I need to gather more information. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

NFL Week 12 best bets

Green Bay Packers -6.5 (+100) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Worst price to bet: Packers -6.5 (-120)

Sure, the conversation surrounding J.J. McCarthy has been so negative that I tend to think we would see some market overreaction, but that isn’t the case this week. The Vikings’ offense is dreadful as McCarthy has consistently missed throws and turned the ball over. Add in a lot of pre-snap penalties and drops from the receiving group, and this offense just isn’t close to getting it going. Green Bay’s defensive front is going to speed up McCarthy, and I’m not sure that’s what the rookie needs right now on the road.

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-114) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Worst price to bet: Rams -6.5 (-115)

This may seem steep, but my model just doesn’t have the Bucs in the same class as the Rams at this point. Sure, they’ve been banged up, and there is a chance they get healthier this week, but I wonder if this game ends up similar to the Bills game last week. The defense has had an explosive-play issue the past few weeks — 15 percent the last two weeks — and against this Rams offense, that’s a bad recipe. Sure, the Seahawks slowed the Rams down last week, but I don’t have the Bucs rated in the same class as the Seahawks on the defensive side of the ball. Here’s to hoping Matthew Stafford and the offense get back on track against a lesser opponent.