NFC North pecking order and the irrepressible Chiefs: Our experts’ Week 12 takeaways

By Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Michael Silver

Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

Sunday was shaping up as an epic day for the underdogs when the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants all took first-half leads of at least 7 points. All three lost, as the Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots and Detroit Lions (in overtime) got things back on track. Another favorite, the Kansas City Chiefs, came back from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to knock off the Indianapolis Colts, also in overtime.

NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Michael Silver share their thoughts on a Week 12 in which the favorites maintained order, the playoff picture got further muddled and the race for the No. 1 overall pick remained too close to call.

The NFC North is now a three-team race. Rank the Chicago Bears, the Green Bay Packers and the Lions after what you saw in Week 12.

Jones: 1. Packers: A top-10 defense with an ability to harass the quarterback, force takeaways and get off the field on third downs. A balanced offense with a sharp and creative, detail-oriented coach, a talented quarterback and great running back depth. In December, January and February, you have to be able to run the football.

2. Lions: Plenty of talent to go around on offense and defense, but there are inconsistencies that cause this team to struggle more than it should. Not sold on Dan Campbell the play caller, but do believe in Dan Campbell the leader of men.

3. Chicago Bears: A young team that continues to show it’s learning how to win games and get the job done in the clutch. Another balanced offense, and an improving QB who is spreading the ball around to a wide cast of weapons. Just wonder about their lack of experience when it comes to the postseason.

Silver: 1. Lions: With that offensive line — and with an abundance of difference-makers on both sides of the ball (not to mention Jake Bates’ clutch 59-yard field goal at the end of regulation Sunday) — Detroit still looks to me like the division’s most dangerous team. Though they came perilously close to suffering a bad loss to the Giants at home, the stars (including QB Jared Goff in a bounce-back performance, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and of course RB Jahmyr Gibbs) took over when it mattered most. Dan Campbell as offensive play caller wasn’t something I had on my list of plausible developments during his notorious “bite a kneecap” introductory news conference, but it’s working.

2. Packers: Their defense will keep them in most games, and I believe the offense will improve as the games get bigger. For all the public questioning of Matt LaFleur’s job security, he has a penchant for getting hot as a play caller and staying in that zone for an extended period. And Sunday proved that RB Emanuel Wilson is a very capable stand-in for Josh Jacobs. Having both backs healthy down the stretch would be a luxury.

3. Bears: I know they’re 8-3, and have won four in a row and eight of nine, but I’m still not buying that they’re a true contender. Sunday’s victory over the Steelers was Chicago’s first against a team that currently has a winning record, and the Bears were lucky not to have to face the injured Aaron Rodgers. That said, give rookie coach Ben Johnson and his players a ton of credit for injecting themselves into the mix. Their next two games (at Eagles, at Packers) will be illuminating.

Nguyen: 1. Lions: Though the loss of Ben Johnson is definitely being felt, this is still an elite offense with big play ability. The defense had a bad showing against the Giants, but once they get healthy they have potential to be a top-10 unit.

2. Packers: The offense is going to struggle all year with its offensive line injuries, but I trust LaFleur to find a way to get them to baseline. With an elite defense and pass rush, this will be a tough team to beat late in the year. And with all of their issues, they’re 7-3-1.

3. Bears: Johnson and Caleb Williams have this offense playing fantastic. There’s a boom or bust element to the offense because Johnson is an aggressive play caller and Williams will still have an occasional negative play, but they’re putting points on the board. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is doing all he can, but the lack of talent and injuries on that side of the ball are hard to overcome.

Did the Chiefs save their season by erasing a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Colts in overtime?

Nguyen: At 5-6, it would have been difficult to climb into the playoffs. A win against one of the top teams in the AFC not only gets them closer, it’s a huge psychological boost. DC Steve Spagnuolo and the defense was fantastic today. They bottled up Jonathan Taylor and every throw was contested. Spags dialed up blitzes in the money situations and Colts QB Daniel Jones never looked comfortable. These are the games that the Chiefs won over and over again on the way to last season’s Super Bowl. They still have too many miscues on offense to feel comfortable, though. The good news for the Chiefs is that they’re moving the ball at ease, they just have to finish drives.

Jones: I won’t declare their season saved just yet, but this was certainly a game that they had to have. Still, the 6-5 Chiefs aren’t yet out of the woods. They still have a a handful of teams ahead of them in the race for the final playoff spot. But they kept hope alive. It’s hard to bet against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Spagnoulo, and they showed why on Sunday as they beat a very good Colts team. We’ll see if they can use this game to spark some momentum as they prepare for a stretch run that includes upcoming games against the Cowboys and Texans. Nothing comes easily for this Chiefs team, but they are indeed battle tested. They’ll need more heroics from Mahomes like we saw on Sunday, and they’ll need continued robust efforts from a defense that held the league’s leading rusher to just 58 yards, while holding Jones to just 181 passing yards. A lot has to bounce the right way for a team that was winless in one-score games this season until Sunday. But they’re not out of this thing yet.

Silver: Realistically, yes. Sure, the Chiefs still would have had a mathematical shot of sneaking into the playoffs had they lost to the Colts, and I’d never put anything past Mahomes. However, the margin for error would have been thin, especially given previous defeats to the Bills and Jags (which can hurt them in tiebreaker scenarios). Now? Well, Kansas City will still have to play at a high level from here on out to make the postseason, but it feels plausible. They’re 6-5 with games remaining against the Cowboys, Texans, Titans and all three AFC West foes. Given everything I’ve seen over the previous seven seasons, expect Mahomes to start doing Mahomes things — and to give K.C. a legitimate shot of reaching the Super Bowl yet again.

Is Jahmyr Gibbs the best running back in the NFL?

Silver: On a day when legitimate MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor wasn’t particularly impressive (16 carries, 58 yards, no TDs against the Chiefs), it’s fair to at least ponder this question. Gibbs’ unmatched explosiveness is a constant threat for the Lions, and it proved to be game-turning when he ripped off a 69-yard touchdown run on the first play of overtime against the Giants. The fact that he plays with a potent QB in Jared Goff and behind the league’s best offensive line makes Gibbs a constant menace. It makes you wonder how productive he could be if he was on the field more, but the use of thumper David Montgomery as a complementary rushing threat has been part of the Lions’ winning formula.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ latest heroics lifted the Lions past the Giants in overtime. (Nic Antaya / Getty Images)

Jones: Jonathan Taylor would have something to say about that claim, and I would agree with him. Yes, Gibbs is dynamic and well-rounded. But Taylor is just on another level. He’s his team’s workhorse back, not on a timeshare like Gibbs. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and also isn’t too shabby a pass catcher, either.

Nguyen: Gibbs quietly had one of the most efficient seasons of all time last season. His 0.14 expected points added (EPA) per rush last season was the best we’ve seen in a decade. This season, he’s at 0.11 while carrying a larger load. That’s better than Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry’s EPA per rush last season. As a pure runner, there’s just no one better than Gibbs, who effortlessly ran through the Giants’ defense like butter. He’s also exceptional as a pass catcher. The biggest weakness in his game is his pass blocking. Some teams will blitz to keep him from running routes, and he can struggle to hold up in protection. But he’s been so good in every other area of the game, he deserves the RB1 crown. Taylor is obviously the other back in consideration, but Gibbs’ efficiency gives him the edge for me.

The Patriots (10-2) and Broncos (9-2) now lead the way in the AFC, with the Colts at 8-3. Who will be the No. 1 seed?

Nguyen: The Colts don’t have the easiest remaining schedule, which includes two games each against the Texans and Jaguars. I like where they are defensively with cornerback Charvarius Ward back in the lineup. With Ward and Sauce Gardner, I think this defense is going to level up significantly. Their offense has had some issues in recent weeks but I think they’ll get back on track. The Patriots also have a great shot at finishing with the No. 1 seed with a favorable remaining schedule.

Silver: The Chiefs, obviously. (Yes, that’s a joke, but I’m pretty sure the Chiefs aren’t too worried about their playoff seed, as long as they get in.) On paper, the Patriots have a reasonably favorable path, but that knee injury rookie left tackle Will Campbell suffered in Sunday’s win over the Bengals is potentially concerning. Like the Pats, the Broncos (who had a bye this week) are on a heater, with eight consecutive victories. They have a tough stretch to close the season — final four opponents: Packers, Jags, Chiefs, Chargers — yet that devastating defense is capable of shutting down anyone. Assuming second-year QB Bo Nix can elevate his game, even a little, Denver is my pick.

Jones: I’m going to go with the Patriots. The Broncos have the better defense, but the Patriots are more balanced while boasting a top-10 offense, a top-10 defense, a special teams unit that has delivered multiple big plays and a favorable schedule (Giants, bye, Bills, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins) that should enable them to protect their edge over Denver, whose offense has some inconsistencies that give me pause.