It will read like a contradiction, but Newcastle United are familiar with uncharted territory. They have walked this path on countless occasions since their takeover in 2021 – winning at places where winning had long been beyond them, most notably and gloriously at Wembley last March – but if they are to reach their third Carabao Cup final in the space of four seasons, they must set forth again and reconfigure their own history.
At the halfway point of their semi-final against Manchester City, this outcome feels unlikely; Newcastle are two goals down to a very fine team they simply do not beat away from home. The second of those goals was a hope-killer and stadium-drainer, scored in the 98th minute of a match which saw one side take their opportunities and the other fail to. In that respect, it was a reversal of their two fixtures against Arsenal at the same stage a year ago.
At 1-0, Newcastle still had a puncher’s chance – possible if improbable – but 2-0 hit different. Almost like a knockout.
Wembley, Old Trafford, the Emirates; at various points over the past few years, Newcastle have taken a wrecking ball to long decades of self-abasement, but overturning a substantive lead at the Etihad Stadium will require another level of achievement.
“It is probably our biggest challenge, our biggest test — of everything really,” Howe told reporters when this suggestion was put to him. “In our belief levels, our ability, our ability to score goals and to defend.” To put that into context, avoiding relegation and winning a trophy are among the peaks Howe has scaled in his time at St James’ Park. For a man allergic to hyperbole, “biggest challenge” is saying something.
Yet there are valid reasons why he has consistently described Pep Guardiola’s side as “the hardest team to play over two legs in the country.” Part of it is obvious – City are the era’s outstanding side – but Newcastle’s form at the Etihad is a more specific, leeching concern; in five games there under Howe, they have neglected to produce a single goal and have lost by an aggregate scoreline of 14-0. It has been a footballing desert.
Spread the sample size a little wider and nourishment remains desperately scarce. In 22 visits to City’s ground, Newcastle have won once, a 2-0 victory in October 2014. Since then, they have played 11 and lost 11, conceding 37 goals and scoring three. “Records are there to be broken so that has to be the mindset,” Howe said. “We’re still in there fighting. We’re still in the game, if we can get the next goal.”
It is a big if. Some parts of history are immutable and Newcastle no longer have a world-class forward to dig them out of trouble. The two strikers Newcastle signed last summer to replace Alexander Isak are scratching around for sharpness or a fixed place in Howe’s system. Yoane Wissa skied an early shot and still looks rusty. Nick Woltemade came on, stumbled over his own feet and struggled for involvement.
According to Opta’s definition, Newcastle mustered four big chances against City; Wissa was unable to convert two of them and Woltemade one. City had two and scored from both. Howe described Wissa’s fifth-minute miss as “a big turning point,” and this brutal metric was the biggest difference, as well as the weariness which crept into their legs as they chased the game.
Wissa missed a big chance early on against City (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Their weekend progress against Bournemouth in the FA Cup, after extra-time and penalties, came with a toll.
“We looked a little bit fatigued, but that’s understandable with the exertions and the efforts that we gave on Saturday,” Howe said. “It’s such a quick turnaround against the worst team that you can play to expose any fatigue because they keep the ball so well.”
In recent weeks, Newcastle have found a way to win, sometimes ugly, sometimes late and always difficult. Chaos has enveloped them but with defensive injuries and attacking opacity, it has also done them a favour. City succeeded in stripping the maelstrom away, retraining possession and forgoing drama and although Newcastle held them at bay for the first half, it was their responsibility to find impetus. City did not need to rush or push.
One big moment went Newcastle’s way — that lengthy, ludicrous VAR check for offside which finally ruled out a second goal for Antoine Semenyo — but the smaller moments did not favour them.
Jacob Murphy, whose direct play had caused problems on the right, succumbed to a hamstring problem before half-time. Bruno Guimaraes struck the outside of the post. When Semenyo scored City’s first in the 53rd minute, Newcastle were temporarily reduced to 10 men after Jacob Ramsey waited to return to the pitch after receiving treatment. “He’s been elbowed in the head and we get punished for that. I don’t see how that’s right,” Howe said, but the overall theme was not injustice.
Newcastle needed to be perfect, whatever their version of perfection looks like, and they were not.
Before the second leg on February 4, they will play Wolverhampton Wanderers, Aston Villa and Liverpool in the Premier League and PSV Eindhoven and Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. “The beauty is that we can put it away and forget about it,” Howe said. “We’ve got so many big games to come before the second leg, who knows what mental state both teams will be in when it comes around.”
And this, of course, is the club that Newcastle yearned to be and the club they now are; competing in huge matches which are meaningful for positive reasons.
Earlier on Tuesday, David Hopkinson, the club’s chief executive, sent his staff a video message, quoting the late American general Colin Powell, who said: “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier. I am talking about a gung-ho attitude that says we can change things here, we can achieve awesome goals, we can be the best.”
Hopkinson said that optimism is “something we can choose when we think about everything we’re building here at Newcastle.”
They have it all to do against City, so why not try and do it?