Let’s take a quick break from the tanking conversation for a minute.
Yes, the NBA has a major problem on its hands because of all the teams that are racing to the bottom. And yes, the league is under major pressure to find a solution ASAP because of the widespread discontent among its partners (gambling and media) as well as some fans.
But even with that unsavory backdrop, there’s something far more entertaining happening that should not be overlooked: Real competition among the elite, a wide-open field of top-tier teams that — at times — look capable of winning the whole damn thing.
Remember when this was Oklahoma City’s title (defense) to lose? The Thunder were 24-1 heading into the NBA Cup games in Las Vegas, where the most relevant storyline at that time was whether they could break the Golden State Warriors’ all-time wins mark en route to another Larry O’Brien trophy. But then they got smacked in the semifinal by the San Antonio Spurs, with Victor Wembanyama proving to be a perfect foil on that stage and then kicking dirt in the Thunder’s eye with his postgame talk of “ethical basketball.” As I wrote at the time, I was admittedly delighted that this wasn’t going to be a one-horse race after all.
But that welcome truth has been confirmed quite often in the two-plus months since, and there’s an argument to be made (as you’ll see below) that we have ourselves an all-out derby. Here’s a deeper dive into the AC data — After Cup — and a breakdown of why each of these teams, to varying degrees, still has a shot at going all the way. With six weeks to go until the end of the regular season, teams are listed in order of how this particular scribe sees the field at this late point.
Important note for After Cup evaluation: All data since Dec. 13…
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 21-14
Net rating: 6.9 (fifth)
Offensive rating: 115.5 (11th)
Defensive rating: 108.6 (third)
Biggest question mark: Health
First things first, let’s make this much clear: It’s not as if the Thunder just went full “Space Jam” and lost their talent. It’s OKC’s medical chart, more than anything, that has allowed the rest of this field to catch up. Take a look at their many pain points and games missed during this span.
- Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (10): One game for a right ankle sprain, and the last nine games with an abdominal strain (he’s expected back Friday night against Denver).
- All-Star Jalen Williams (15): Hamstring strain, followed by a re-aggravation (he’s expected to be re-evaluated in early March). One disclaimer here, though: The Thunder’s 24-1 start came with Jalen Williams missing all but six games.
- Defensive specialist Alex Caruso (12): Finger sprain, back soreness, right adductor strain and a left ankle sprain (he missed Wednesday’s loss against Detroit with the ankle but is expected to play Friday).
- Reserve big man Isaiah Hartenstein (21): Right soleus strain and a right corneal abrasion (he has since returned).
- Reserve guard Ajay Mitchell (17): Abdominal strain, concussion protocol, left ankle sprain (re-evaluation expected soon). The 23-year-old had averaged 14.2 points in Jalen Williams’ absence through Dec. 12.
- Reserve forward Jaylin Williams (14): Right heel bursitis, left glute contusion (he has since returned and scored a career-high 30 points in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday).
All of this is to say that the Thunder’s status as front-runners remains, at least from this vantage point. But no matter how they got here, the harsh reality is that it’s a far cry from the chaos they’d caused for all comers in the first few months. The before-and-after contrast is nothing short of staggering.
Through Dec. 12, the Thunder had a net rating of 17.2 that was nearly double the second-place Houston Rockets (10.3) and a defensive rating of 103.3 that dwarfed second-place Detroit (111.0). Times have changed, largely for the reasons stated above, and it will be very interesting to see if they can recapture that magic when it matters most.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 26-9
Net rating: 8.7 (second)
Offensive rating: 116.3 (sixth)
Defensive rating: 107.7 (second)
Biggest question mark: Inexperience
Even if the Spurs hadn’t faced the Thunder at all this season, their body of work would be good enough to warrant inclusion here. After all — if you somehow haven’t noticed — they’ve now won 11 games in a row after downing Brooklyn 126-110 on Thursday.
But it’s this (extremely relevant) data point that makes their postseason prospects so intriguing: San Antonio has won four of its five games against OKC, meaning the Spurs account for nearly a third of OKC’s total losses (15 in all). As title-contending proof points go, it doesn’t get much better than that during the regular season.
All of that damage was done during this post-Dec. 12 span that has been so telling. There was only an asterisk in one of those Spurs’ wins, too, as the Thunder were as healthy as they’ve been all season in three of those games before playing without their entire core in a Feb. 4 loss (OKC’s lone win came on Jan. 13, 119-98, when both sides had their respective cores). Even beyond the OKC matchups, the Spurs have continued to pile up quality wins that make you wonder how far they might be able to go (they’re 7-6 against the non-Thunder teams on this list).
The real question, once the playoffs arrive, is whether this Spurs team that didn’t even make the playoffs last season is simply too inexperienced to pull off this monumental feat. And make no mistake, history is not on their side.
Only six teams have ever won it all after not being in the postseason the year before, and all of the modern-day examples (the 2007-08 Celtics, 2019-20 Lakers and 2021-22 Warriors) have a very different profile from that of the Spurs. Those were all veteran-laden, star-stacked teams that had all sorts of previous playoff (as well as championship) experience. Save for Harrison Barnes and his Golden State title in 2015 (and an NBA Finals appearance in 2016), or De’Aaron Fox and his one playoff series in Sacramento (2023), these Spurs are not that. The better comparison might be the Portland Trail Blazers team that won it all in 1977, when a 24-year-old big man with remarkable two-way skills who went by the name of Bill Walton played a pivotal part in the title journey after they had missed the playoffs the year before.
Does that historical context truly matter, though? Wembanyama, who is garnering MVP buzz while averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 2.8 blocks and one steal, is the kind of two-way force the league has never seen. The Spurs have a net rating of 14.6 when he’s on the floor and just 0.2 when he’s off (the defensive rating is 104 when he’s on and 113 when he’s off). On the offensive end, the fact that San Antonio has eight players averaging at least 10 points presents a litany of problems for playoff opponents.
The scariest part, for the Thunder and the rest of the field? The Spurs’ formula goes way beyond Wembanyama.
Detroit Pistons
Record: 23-9
Net rating: 9.5 (first)
Offensive rating: 115.9 (tied for seventh)
Defensive rating: 106.4 (first)
Biggest question mark: Offense — in the playoffs
If one game could highlight all that is good and bad about two elite teams — and why I give the Spurs the nod on this list over Detroit — it was San Antonio’s win Monday over the Pistons (114-103).
On one side, you had the Spurs — with their aforementioned depth on the offensive end — surviving despite the trio of Wembanyama, Fox and Stephon Castle shooting just 17 of 49 from the field combined. Devin Vassell had 28 points (on 10-of-14 shooting) while Julian Champagnie added 17 (6-of-12). When the main guys were stymied, they still had a bevy of options.
On the other side, where Detroit is well aware that Cade Cunningham can’t do it all, its resident MVP candidate was held to 5-of-26 shooting (Castle had the primary assignment, with help from Fox, Vassell, Champagnie and incredible help-side defense from Wembanyama late). But unlike the Spurs, the Pistons just didn’t have enough when their primary option faltered. (Jalen Duren did have 25 on 10-of-13 shooting, but the rest of the supporting cast struggled.)
Even though the Pistons do have the sort of playoff experience the Spurs lack, having taken the New York Knicks to six games in the first round last April, this offensive dynamic is routinely cited as the kind of thing that might hold them back from a major postseason leap this time around. What happens when playoff defenses throw the kitchen sink at Cunningham and force the “others” to beat them? It’s a fair question to ask, and one they’ll have to answer when April rolls around. The lack of 3-point shooting is next up on that list from their skeptics, as they’re 28th in makes per game at 11.1 and 22nd in 3-point percentage at 34.9.
Now for the good news. Their defense — which features a level of physicality that should make Bill Laimbeer, Rick Mahorn, Dennis Rodman and the rest of the old Bad Boys proud — is simply spectacular. As Pistons legend Isiah Thomas told our Ian O’Connor after Detroit destroyed New York in the Garden on Feb. 19 (118-80), “(The Pistons are) the one team in the NBA right now that is really playing a totally different brand of basketball than everyone else. They have gone back to what I would say the old Pistons DNA has been — defense, rebounding, shot blocking and taking good shots.”
Denver Nuggets
Record: 19-16
Net rating: 1.6 (14th)
Offensive rating: 118.2 (third)
Defensive rating: 116.5 (23rd)
Biggest question mark(s): Health and defense
The Nuggets’ red flags are a bit nuanced.
Their biggest issue is health — hamstrings, more specifically — with the continued absences of Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson compromising their title hopes. The 30-year-old Gordon is as invaluable as any non-superstar in today’s NBA, but he has played in just 23 of Denver’s 59 games to this point. The 23-year-old Watson was in the midst of a breakout season when he went down with his hamstring injury on Feb. 4. And if they could somehow fix that first problem, then the second — the defense — may very well be solved as well. Gordon and Watson are that important to this group.
Yet while there’s no clear timeline for their returns, head coach David Adelman offered some optimism recently that this cause-and-effect theory might be tested soon.
“My hope is that we get the full group back (with) 20 games to go,” Adelman told reporters on Tuesday. “That’d be my — what I pray for nightly, just so we can actually see what it is. …We know what we can be if we’re fully healthy.”
The championship credentials alone are enough to give the Nuggets the benefit of the doubt, but time is running out. As you can see above, they have painted a picture of mediocrity for more than two months now. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokić missed 16 games with a left knee injury in that span, averaging 27.9 points, 12.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists, but Denver has been subpar even when he played during that stretch (9-10).
So … why is there still reason to believe for the Nuggets? Because if you hit the rewind back to the last postseason, when they downed the surging LA Clippers in seven games in the first round before taking OKC to seven in the second round, it was quite clear that this group was still fully capable of beating anyone — when healthy. It’s as true now as it was then. The fact that they got that far after the late-season firings of general manager Calvin Booth and head coach Michael Malone made it that much more impressive.
What’s more, the new front office co-heads of Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer added the kind of depth that was sorely lacking last summer and could certainly put them over the top when it matters most. Again, health permitting.
Boston Celtics
Record: 23-10
Net rating: 8.5 (third)
Offensive rating: 118.1 (fourth)
Defensive rating: 109.6 (fourth)
Biggest question mark: Jayson Tatum
Regardless of what comes next for these Celtics, can we take a minute to appreciate what Jaylen Brown has done this season? After all those years of chatter about whether or not the ‘The Jays” were compatible, and even after Brown capped Boston’s title run in 2024 by winning NBA Finals MVP (not to mention East finals MVP), there were still doubts about his status as a No. 1 option. Well, those questions have been undeniably answered. And honestly, there isn’t enough noise about his case to be on the MVP short list.
With Tatum’s torn Achilles keeping him away, Brown has averaged 29.1 points (fourth in the league), 7.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists and one steal for this team that — shockingly — is second in the East. The Lakers’ Luka Dončić is the only other player hitting those 29-7-4 marks. Combined with the career year from Payton Pritchard (17.2 points, 5.4 assists per) and big-time contributions from the likes of Derrick White, Neemias Queta and Anfernee Simons (before he was traded for Nikola Vučević), this group has been far more formidable than expected.
They’re the only team on this entire list that has been top five in offensive and defensive ratings since that Dec. 13 date. As a related aside, who could argue if Joe Mazzulla wins Coach of the Year?
But in terms of the Celtics’ title prospects, the real mystery is whether Tatum is nearing a return. The six-time All-Star returned to five-on-five work recently, and the door to a possible return before the end of the regular season appears to be wide open. If that happens, Boston deserves the same sort of VIP treatment that the Nuggets have earned because of their status as former champs. That doesn’t mean a 19th banner would happen — especially considering Tatum would need to work his way back into top form — but the possibility would be alive and well.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 21-14
Net rating: 4.1 (seventh)
Offensive rating: 116.8 (fifth)
Defensive rating: 112.7 (12th)
Biggest question mark: Inconsistency
If you haven’t noticed quite yet, there’s a trend emerging here as it relates to teams with notable past accomplishments: I’m giving them a whole lot of grace. So while the Timberwolves have been underperforming for most of this season, with the latest example coming in a win over the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers on Thursday that was much closer than it should have been (94-88), you simply can’t ignore the fact that they’ve appeared in two consecutive Western Conference finals. More specifically, this current core — Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels et al — overcame bouts with regular-season mediocrity last season en route to another deep postseason run (they fell to five games in the West finals to OKC).
Can Anthony Edwards and the Wolves make it three West finals in a row? (Matt Krohn / Imagn Images)
Edwards has been his dynamic and entertaining self, averaging 29.6 points (third in the league), 5.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks. But even he hasn’t been able to stop the roller-coaster nature of the Timberwolves’ season, as they’ve shown an ability to beat the best (2-1 against OKC and San Antonio; 1-0 against Boston; 1-1 against Cleveland) while somehow falling to the worst. They’ve had losses against Sacramento, Memphis (twice), Brooklyn, Utah and New Orleans. They’re 0-3 against Denver.
The trade deadline pickup of 26-year-old guard Ayo Dosunmu has paid dividends, as Minnesota has won five of six games since he arrived from Chicago (he’s averaging 11.5 points, 2.8 assists and 26.8 minutes thus far). It wasn’t quite as splashy as the Kevin Durant deal they tried to pull off last summer or the Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster they would have loved to do at the deadline, but it’s a quality addition nonetheless.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 22-12
Net rating: 5.5 (sixth)
Offensive rating: 118.6 (second)
Defensive rating: 113.1 (12th)
Biggest question mark: James Harden
Because Cleveland made the most potentially impactful deal at the deadline, swapping Darius Garland for James Harden with the Clippers, this discussion about its championship legitimacy — or lack thereof — comes with a much more narrow focus. In essence, the information above is only so relevant now that they added an all-time great whose long history of playoff shortcomings has been so well chronicled.
But in the seven games in which Harden has played — six of which the Cavs won — it’s not hard to see why general manager Koby Altman made this move. Garland’s availability was a major issue, as was his lack of size that left them so vulnerable on the defensive end. And with Donovan Mitchell’s extension talks looming so large this summer, the time was now to send a clear message that they’re serious about finding a way to the top.
As our Joe Vardon wrote on Thursday, big man Jarrett Allen had already been emerging as a force even before Harden arrived. The recent absence of Evan Mobley (eight games missed with a calf strain) appears to have inspired that silver lining, and Harden’s style should only elevate both of them going forward. He’s averaging 18.2 points, eight assists and five rebounds since coming to Cleveland, though a right thumb fracture kept him out of Wednesday’s loss to Milwaukee. It was initially reported that Harden planned on playing through the injury, so it remains to be seen how much of a setback this might be.
New York Knicks
Record: 20-15
Net rating: 3.2 (ninth)
Offensive rating: 115.7 (tied for ninth)
Defensive rating: 112.4 (10th)
Biggest question mark: Karl-Anthony Towns
Much like the Timberwolves, the Knicks — as our Fred Katz so expertly wrote this week — are as inconsistent as any top-tier team in the Association. Yet while Fred made a compelling case that this weakness is shared, with detailed insight about everyone from Jalen Brunson to Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and all the rest, it’s hard to see past the elephant in the room when it comes to Towns.
He’s either going to be comfortable and dominant in the kind of way that he was last season, when they made that East finals run under coach Tom Thibodeau during Towns’ career year. Or … he’ll continue to struggle to be his best self in new coach Mike Brown’s system, and the Knicks will fall short as a result. In terms of actual title contention, it’s really hard to see the Knicks getting this job done unless Towns is nothing short of special all the way through.
This is yet another team that’s being given leeway because of what it did before, but this body of work in the past two months is nothing to write home about. What’s more, that 0-3 record against Detroit poses a major problem going forward. Not to mention the Tuesday loss against Cleveland. And with owner James Dolan having made it clear in early January that he sees this team through a title-or-bust prism — “We should win the finals, right?” he had said — the pressure is most certainly on for all involved.
Cutting room floor
• If the Houston Rockets go on to throw a parade, I’ll be the first one to offer a mea culpa. But truth be told, I’m just not seeing it.
As I wrote recently, the loss of big man Steven Adams to a season-ending ankle injury remains one of the most underrated absences in all the NBA. Even with Houston’s comeback win Thursday over Orlando — its sixth in the last eight games — the Rockets are still just ninth in net rating since the big man went down (with a 13-6 record). The offense, which relied so heavily on the second chances that Adams would create, is somehow ranked just 16th in that span.
The Kevin Durant-Alperen Şengün pairing has its obvious issues in terms of compatibility. The preseason loss of veteran point guard Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) is proving more devastating by the month. And unlike so many other teams that are waiting for key players to return, there aren’t reinforcements coming for these Rockets.
They’re a good team, with a record of 21-15 since that Dec. 13 mark, but likely not good enough.
• The Charlotte Hornets deserve a mention for creating all this late-season … buzz. But even with their 22-13 record since Dec. 13, they’ll be pitted against the East elite if they manage to make it out of the Play-In Tournament that looks so likely (they’re currently in 10th, 4 1/2 games back of the sixth spot).
Still, this stretch in which they’ve won 13 of 16 games has made them the League Pass darlings of the second half. And they’ve done it, mostly, with the starting lineup of Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball and Moussa Diabate that remains the most effective in the entire league (32.1 net rating in 176 minutes).
The irony of it all? The second-best five-man group is OKC’s lineup of Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace (25.3 net rating in 117 minutes). So maybe, given the elite nature of that company, the Hornets are heading toward a title after all.