Ahead of the rollout, Saurabh Garg, secretary at the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI), expressed confidence that the GDP reset will address long-standing data concerns.
Mint spoke with Garg on a range of issues, including the rationale for the new base year, whether concerns around the MCA-21 database – a corporate affairs ministry portal where companies and LLPs file statutory and financial disclosures and which is primarily used to track unlisted firms – will be addressed, and the ministry’s priorities for the coming year.
Edited excerpts from the interview:
Will the GDP revamp give comparable data and back-series updates? Will it also lead to significant expansion in the size of the economy in absolute terms?
We will release revised GDP numbers with the new base year from 2022-23 onwards. That means GDP estimates for 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 will be available, along with advance estimates for 2025-26. Extending the series further back by 10–20 years will take time and may be completed by the end of the year. For comparison purposes, however, four years is sufficient.
As for whether the absolute GDP numbers will rise or change, you will have to wait until 27 February. It would not be appropriate for me to comment on the numbers before then.
Why was 2022-23 chosen as the base year for GDP and IIP instead of a more recent period, given concerns about post-covid recovery distortion?
The economy did not witness a low base effect in 2022-23. The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics also found 2022-23 a normal economic year. The results of major surveys such as the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES), the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE), and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) were also available for 2022-23.
There have been concerns around the use of the MCA-21 database. The revised base year looks to address some of those by adding more indicators and nuance. How will these lead to better outcomes?
Some concerns were raised about the presence of shell companies within the frame of active companies maintained by the ministry of corporate affairs (MCA). In our view, these were not material concerns because cross-checking mechanisms already existed. Those mechanisms have now become even stronger.
We now use MGT-7 filings – a mandatory electronic annual return filed by registered companies in India – which provide granular information that allows revenues and profits to be apportioned across activities far more accurately than before. In addition, GST data will be used to validate the frame of active companies by filtering out inactive entities.
GDP discussion papers proposed to do away with the contentious ‘discrepancies’ component. How is the ministry planning to do it, and will it make estimates more robust, or will it be just a technical adjustment?
To address the discrepancy between the production and expenditure approaches, the ‘Supply Use Table’ (SUT) Framework will be integrated into the national accounts. The SUT shows what industries produce (supply) and how those products are consumed by other industries or final consumers (use).
A balanced SUT ensures that total supply matches total demand in the economy, which will help minimize discrepancy in the new series.
How confident are you that the GDP revamp will address data quality concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund and upgrade the rating from ‘C?
The International Monetary Fund’s ‘C’ rating was largely attributed to factors such as an outdated base year, the use of a single deflator and large discrepancies. With the base-year revision, these concerns will be substantially addressed.
We believe the quality of our data is excellent, so there should be no reason for it not to receive the best rating.
Traditional labour surveys (PLFS) often struggle with providing data on platform/gig work. Considering their importance and the proposed protections under the new labour codes, is the ministry planning to systematically track the millions employed in the gig economy?
In the absence of an exclusive and operationally precise definition, a broad formulation poses significant challenges for the identification and measurement of gig workers through household survey operations.
Given the growing importance of platform-mediated work in the labour market and the need for evidence-based policymaking, the National Statistical Office (NSO) has initiated the collection of information on platform workers through PLFS from January 2026 on an experimental basis. The primary objective of this initiative is to estimate the volume of platform workers. A secondary objective is to collect selected information on key characteristics of platform workers.
Apart from the current surveys, what other surveys are in the works over the next 12 months?
We are launching a new household income survey. A travel and tourism survey is also underway, with results expected before the end of this year. We will begin a new survey on cooperatives to assess their contribution to the system.
There is also a request from the sports ministry regarding a survey on sports infrastructure and facilities. This remains a work in progress and may be undertaken over the next 12-18 months.
MoSPI did try to conduct income surveys decades ago, but it did not yield fruitful results as people are hesitant about sharing their income details. What challenges are you facing this time, and how are you planning to address those?
MoSPI has, in fact, tried to do this three times in the past: the 50s, the 60s, and the 80s. The last attempt was made about 40 years ago. There are challenges, but globally, other countries are doing it, and their challenges are being addressed. The existence of challenges is not a sufficient reason to avoid undertaking the exercise.
We did a pilot last year, and we hope households and individuals will cooperate because the results remain anonymous and they are only being used for statistical information purposes and for no other purpose. We have an expert committee looking at all the issues.
What’s the timeline for starting the survey?
We are starting in the next couple of months.
A parliamentary panel in December 2025 recommended giving full statutory powers to the National Statistical Commission (NSC) to ensure data credibility. Does the ministry have a roadmap in this regard?
The action taken or proposed to be taken on the recommendations contained in the panel report is to be furnished by 1 March 2026. The Action Taken Reports (ATRs) and proposed actions are under preparation.