Just as at the Australian Open, there will be no Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner final at the Qatar Open in Doha.
The world No. 1 and No. 2 went down a set after losing a tiebreak to a peaking opponent Thursday, but where Alcaraz thrived to survive, Sinner found himself in an irretrievable situation.
After Alcaraz fended off Russia’s Karen Khachanov 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3, Sinner fell to Jakub Menšík of the Czech Republic 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3, one round earlier than his Australian Open exit in January to an inspired Novak Djokovic. In both defeats, Sinner won more points than his opponent, but could not close the match.
“We need to see where we can improve, but we are calm, there’s no disaster,” Sinner said in Italian after the match against Menšík. He had won 22 of 23 matches before facing the 20-year-old Czech, and added that he had been working on some physical issues during and since the Australian Open, as well as trying to add to his game.
“Now we will play Indian Wells and Miami. I’m sure the work will pay off,” Sinner added.
The results help reveal how the two runaway stars of men’s tennis are evolving. For Alcaraz, who forced Khachanov to a tiebreak even as the Russian played one of the best sets of his life, his win was a vindication of the security he has brought to his game by improving his serve.
For Sinner, who appeared to have turned the tide against Menšík before losing his serve in the opening game of the third set, his forehand remains one of the most devastating shots in the sport but its apparent issues were examined again.
In Sinner’s opening match of the Qatar Open, a straight-sets cruise against Menšík’s compatriot Tomáš Macháč, Sinner played a point built on marvelous backhands:
Sin-sational 😮💨
A lesson in point construction from @janniksin ✍️#QatarExxonMobilOpen pic.twitter.com/BDcEGVzHaY
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 16, 2026
It was a well-constructed point. It was also a surprise. Sinner rejected several opportunities to take over the point with his forehand from the center of the court, instead hitting inside-out backhands from the middle, a shot that he does not tend to prefer. As when Djokovic pummelled the ball into Sinner’s forehand in their Australian Open semifinal, his timing on that wing was this week susceptible to erring.
In 2026, Sinner’s forehand is missing more frequently than in any of the past four seasons, according to data collected by Tennis Data Innovations (though necessarily from a small sample size). Down the stretch against Menšík, he missed from presentable positions too often, and Sinner’s cross-court forehand was a losing play in the match, when it is normally a winning one.
The shot has not visibly regressed technically, which suggests confidence issues — backed up by Sinner’s being well down on his break-point conversion in 2026 (34 percent) compared to 2025 (44.6 percent). Some of that was down to Menšík embracing his underdog role Thursday and playing freely under pressure on his serve, something he has found harder as a favorite.
The 20-year-old has a strong record against top-five players in his career, 4-2 after six matches, and going deep at the Qatar Open will offer a rankings points buffer before the ATP Masters 1000 Miami Open in late March, where he is the defending champion. His toughest moments have come in losing against players he should have beaten from winning positions.
Earlier, Alcaraz had also met an opponent playing freely. Khachanov, seeking a first win in six attempts over Alcaraz, out-served his opponent in almost every metric and backed that up by winning some of the improvisational points Alcaraz expects to control:
KAREN KHACHANOV WINS A RIDICULOUS POINT AGAINST CARLOS ALCARAZ IN DOHA.
This level. 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) February 19, 2026
Once the first set was done, Alcaraz embraced playing second fiddle to Khachanov, just as he did in the Australian Open final after Djokovic won the opening set playing lights-out tennis.
Khachanov spent more of the second set in attack than the first, and more of the third in attack than the second. Helped by the improvements he has made on his serve since the start of 2025, Alcaraz defused the Russian’s redlining, taking control of his service games and asking Khachanov to produce under pressure during his own. Where Alcaraz had to defend just three break points in the match, Khachanov faced 10; Alcaraz saved all three while Khachanov let three slip.
Carlos Alcaraz leaned into his defensive abilities to beat Karen Khachanov. (Karim Jaafar / AFP via Getty Images)
The win takes Alcaraz to 27-0 on outdoor hard courts since his shock loss to Belgium’s David Goffin at last year’s Miami Open, and 66-5 across all surfaces. He faces defending Qatar Open champion Andrey Rublev in the semifinals, while Menšík meets Arthur Fils, another young star on the rise behind Alcaraz and Sinner.