Bo Nix is a conundrum.
The Denver Broncos quarterback, part of a historic 2024 draft class that might actually live up to the hype, has led his team to the best record in the NFL (9-2) despite enduring stretches that could succinctly be described as both very good and very bad.
Nix leads the NFL with 387 pass attempts, a 3.01 sack percentage and five fourth-quarter comebacks. It’s not easy to do all of those things at once.
In fact, it’s wildly bizarre.
Tom Brady (three times) and Peyton Manning (once) are the only quarterbacks since 2012 to lead the NFL in pass attempts and make the playoffs, so Nix has an opportunity to break an extraordinary barrier. Brady and Manning, arguably the two best quarterbacks in NFL history, accomplished the feat because of their unique value to their offenses.
But typically, the league’s leader in pass attempts is someone like Sam Howell (2023), Jameis Winston (2019) or Ben Roethlisberger (2018), a QB on a mediocre (at best) team who is forced to over-chuck it because of the score. Pass attempts and team success don’t often go hand in hand.
Even Drew Brees (2007-08, 2014, 2016), who, like Nix, also commanded a Sean Payton offense, only led the league in attempts during down seasons for the Saints. New Orleans won just seven games in three of those four seasons and eight in the other.
Still, it’s worth pointing out that Brees was better equipped to take on that heavy passing workload in Payton’s scheme. Brees, who briefly held the league’s all-time passing title, was a pocket passer with all-time accuracy who delivered the ball with precise rhythm and timing because of his ability to read the field and anticipate the play.
Nix, a more gifted athlete than Brees, is at his best with the RPO game, utilizing play action and deep balls to carve out explosive plays. Nix doesn’t operate out of the pocket with timing and processing speed like Brees did. Not yet, at least.
Going into the draft, teams viewed Nix as more of a facilitator than a driver of the offense. Evaluators liked his potential in the right situation, with a good running game and defense, and Nix got that with Payton’s Broncos.
But strangely, they’ve put more on Nix’s plate than anyone would have anticipated. He’s completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 2,421 yards, 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season, and he has added 213 rushing yards and three scores.
The Broncos rank 17th in points, 13th in total yards, 17th in passing yards and 21st in net yards per attempt. More or less, they’re average across the board.
But Denver also boasts the league’s third-ranked defense in points and yards allowed, so it’s not like the Broncos need Nix to grip it and rip it every week. The formula seemingly fits into his ideal model for success. And hey, the Broncos are the only team to knock off both Super Bowl participants from a season ago, chopping down the Eagles in Philly in Week 5 and the Chiefs on Sunday. Nix finished 48-of-76 passing for 537 yards, one touchdown and no turnovers in those games, so he played a pivotal role in each victory.
His comebacks are no fluke. Nix has high-end intangibles, according to those who scouted him before the draft, and he is comfortable in chaos. He also tallied three fourth-quarter comebacks as a rookie.
However, it’s not like the Broncos are saving Nix for the fourth quarter. He’s actually delivered more passes in the first half (205) than the second (182). The attempts aren’t disproportionately tilted like they may have been for previous leaders in pass attempts.
One struggle has been consistency, according to coaches and execs who have studied Nix, but that’s true for nearly all second-year QBs. The Broncos have gotten into trouble when defenses have forced them to methodically work down the field, taking away the bigger plays where Nix has been known to thrive.
On one hand, Payton should be thrilled that he’s been able to test his quarterback in a variety of situations while they’ve raced out to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If Nix improves his pocket presence and the Broncos can add players who can gain yards after the catch, he could really take off in future seasons.
On the other hand, the scheme fit still looks a little funky. The dramatic ups and downs on offense could doom the Broncos in the postseason. And if there’s something to the “square-peg, round-hole” theory with Nix and the scheme, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a cap on the offense’s potential.
That’s the conundrum.
Off-the-wall idea
Daniel Jones has largely been very good this season, even if he was leaking oil before the Indianapolis Colts’ bye week. Assuming the good times continue to roll, there’s no reason to overthink this thing: They should keep this going with an offseason contract extension.
But let’s overthink it anyway.
Jones had a cup of coffee last season with the Minnesota Vikings, who are in a tough spot with second-year QB J.J. McCarthy. The 2024 first-rounder has five starts to his resume, so he’s still very much at the beginning of his learning curve. But having seen what the Vikings could do with above-average quarterback play in 2024 (14-3 record), it’s fair to wonder if they’ll lose patience with the developmental process.
So, if the Colts use the franchise tag on Jones and negotiations stall, would the Vikings consider swooping in? It’d cost the Vikings a pair of first-round picks, plus the price of the contract, so they would need extreme conviction in Jones’ potential to lead them to years of playoff success. But with the roster in pretty good shape and a very strong coaching staff in place, the Vikings could withstand the price.
It’d be risky for the Colts to let Jones walk after cycling through Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz and Anthony Richardson in the post-Andrew Luck era. Do they really want to enter the dating pool once again?
But what if the sides modified the compensation terms from two first-rounders to a single first-round pick, a second-rounder and McCarthy? That’d help the Colts recoup much of the compensation from the Sauce Gardner trade, and they could continue to try building around McCarthy — all for the price of a free-agent flier on Jones.
It’s an extreme idea, perhaps a long shot bordering on the precipice of a no-shot hypothetical. But if the Colts ultimately determine they’ve reached their ceiling with Jones, and the Vikings don’t want to sacrifice short-term wins for McCarthy’s long-term development, this could be a match.
The next reclamation project?
Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have reinvented the way teams will think about quarterback acquisition, and that could boost Malik Willis’ stock in free agency.
Willis, the Green Bay Packers’ backup for a couple of seasons, played well Sunday against the New York Giants while briefly spelling Jordan Love. In eight appearances with the Packers, including two starts, Willis has completed 75 percent of his passes for 556 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 129.8 passer rating, and he’s also rushed for 154 yards and a score.
It’s an incredibly small sample. Willis has far less on-field experience through four seasons than Mayfield, Darnold or Jones, so the comparison isn’t perfect.
But he was considered a potential first-round prospect in 2022 before sliding to the Tennessee Titans in the third round. The talent exists, and that’s the thread between Willis and the other former castoffs. While discussing Mayfield, Darnold and Jones, team executives have noted all three were physically gifted enough to be top-10 picks, but they were dropped into unfavorable situations. Those natural physical tools have since shone through in better offenses.
Willis needed time to develop in the NFL after playing for Liberty’s overly simplistic offense, and he didn’t have a chance to thrive as the Titans’ backup for two seasons. Willis quite frankly wasn’t ready as a rookie to step in for an injured Ryan Tannehill, and the Titans weren’t capable of supporting an inexperienced QB. It’s been the opposite during Willis’ time with the Packers.
There are no guarantees in quarterback play — Willis won’t thrive just because others have. If it were that easy, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance would be starting somewhere right now.
But if teams are looking for an affordable, high-character QB with electric physical traits, Willis should get some calls. He should also be strategic about his landing spot because the right marriage could lead to a long career.
The search continues
Michael Penix Jr.’s pedestrian second season has come to a likely conclusion with the Falcons placing him on injured reserve as they assess the severity of his knee injury.
They should also evaluate their future at quarterback.
It’s entirely unfair to reach any sweeping conclusions on Penix’s career after 12 starts, but it’d be organizational malpractice to ignore paths to improvement in the offseason. Penix, who suffered two season-ending knee injuries in college, could lose most, if not all, of his offseason to rehab. That’d stunt his development in 2026. Even upon his return, the oft-injured label will be tough to shake.
Meanwhile, the 2025 Falcons will turn to 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, who will earn $100 million through two seasons in Atlanta. He’s due to earn $35 million in base salary in 2026. While that’s below market rate for a veteran starter, the Falcons would have to feel confident in Cousins’ ability to deliver a playoff-worthy performance, and he hasn’t been healthy or productive enough for two years to feel great about that possibility.
However, it’s one thing to look for upgrades, and it’s another to find one. The veteran market isn’t great, and the draft class is uninspiring. Plus, the Falcons traded their first-round pick to the Rams, so their only strategy might be to take a shot on a mid-rounder and hope for the best if Penix isn’t ready for the start of the 2026 season.
They’ve also got to be cognizant of future business dealings with running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London. If the Falcons’ two brightest offensive stars reach the end of their rookie deals without a playoff berth or enough confidence in the future at quarterback, they may not be willing participants at the negotiating table. The Falcons were already criticized for their approach of using four consecutive top-10 picks on offensive players from 2021-24, but the organization will suffer massively if those players don’t turn into cornerstone pieces for the long haul.
Suffice to say, Penix’s injury has given the Falcons a lot to consider because it doesn’t feel like they’ve gotten any closer to finding their long-term answer at QB.