Indiana has been the story of the college football season. Miami has been the story of this College Football Playoff. Now the two meet with a national title on the line.
The top-ranked, undefeated Hoosiers are the clear favorites based on the opening odds, as IU is favored by 7.5 points on BetMGM.
Indiana has been favored in both of its playoff games, while Miami has been an underdog in two out of three. IU has covered both games, with the result and the spread decided before halftime in both. Miami has had more drama, but has also covered in all of its playoff games.
The Hurricanes enter this one as significant underdogs, but it is not the first time in the playoff. Ohio State was also a 7.5-point favorite against the Hurricanes in a quarterfinal, and Miami won that game by 10. OSU actually opened as a 10-point favorite, but the line tightened closer to kickoff.
With Indiana destroying both Alabama and Oregon to get here, a 7.5-point spread doesn’t seem like a big number. In last year’s championship game, Ohio State was an 8.5-point favorite against Notre Dame and won by 11. The Buckeyes, like this year’s Hoosiers, also demolished their opponents en route to the final.
Throw in Georgia being a 13.5-point favorite against TCU three years ago (and winning 65-7), and this could be the third title game in the last four years to feature a spread of at least a touchdown if that’s where it ends up.
As for the matchup of this year’s championship game, the way the two teams got here is extremely different. Not only was Indiana the only undefeated team in the CFP field, but it also hasn’t endured much adversity along the way.
Miami’s inclusion in the CFP, meanwhile, came with some controversy. The Hurricanes were outside of the playoff spots in the rankings after their last regular-season game, but passed Notre Dame, which also didn’t play during conference championship week, in the final rankings. In the playoff itself, Miami has had all three games come down to the fourth quarter.
In the first round against Texas A&M, Miami needed an interception in the end zone with 24 seconds left to win 10-3 on the road. In the quarterfinal, Miami scored a touchdown in the final minute to put away Ohio State in a 24-14 victory. In the semifinal, Ole Miss had a throw for the end zone on the final play that could’ve won the game for the Rebels, but it fell incomplete.
Will any of that matter in the championship game? The style points are part of why Indiana is the significant favorite.
Miami’s pass rush, led by elite NFL prospect Rueben Bain, will be a different type of matchup than what Indiana has seen so far in the playoff. When the Hoosiers faced another elite defense in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, IU escaped with a 13-10 victory.
Could this game look more like that one, or will Indiana have neutral viewers turning off the game by halftime again? The point total is currently at 48.5, which is somewhat low, but does not imply a defensive struggle should be expected.