India’s exports to the United States tanked for the fourth straight month across all sectors, according to a recent analysis by trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
According to the report, India saw its US exports decline by 37.5% across sectors between May and September 2025, signalling the impact of the Trump tariffs that were imposed on the country earlier this year.
India pays a tariff of 50% on its exports to the US, its largest market, with trade reeling under pressure.
In a note published on Sunday, GTRI said that between May and September 2025, India saw its exports to the US plunge from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion, which indicates a 37.5% decline.
This marks one of the steepest short-term collapses in years, GTRI said.
The report by the trade think tank compared export data between May and September 2025 to analyse the immediate impact of US tariffs that were imposed from April 2 this year.
India is among one of the highest tariff-payers to the US, with Donald Trump imposing an extra 25% duty on its exports as a punishment of buying Russian oil.
The Trump tariffs began at 10%, rose to 25% on August 7, and reached 50% by late August for India.
“The latest data make one point clear: tariffs have not only squeezed India’s trade margins but also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key export industries,” GTRI said.
Which Indian exports to the US suffered the most?
According to the report, products that previously had zero tariff on them experienced the sharpest decline in terms of exports, tanking 47% from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September.
The tariff-free products previously accounted for nearly one-third of India’s shipments.
“Smartphones and pharmaceuticals were the biggest casualties,” GTRI said.
Smartphone exports to the US had surged 197% between April and September 2024. During the same period in 2025, it fell 58% from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September.
The fall was recorded month-after-month — $2.0 billion in June, $1.52 billion in July, $964.8 million in August, and finally $884.6 million in September.
“The reasons for decline are not known and need examination,” GTRI mentioned.
Exports of pharmaceutical products, on the other hand, fell 15.7% from $745.6 million to $628.3 million.
Which other sectors are affected by Trump tariffs?
Trump tariffs have hit all sectors in India. However, industrial metals and auto parts, which are subject to uniform duty across the world, have experienced a milder shock, the report found.
Aluminium exports dropped 37%, copper 25%, auto parts 12%, and iron and steel 8%.
“Because all global suppliers faced similar duties, the dip appears linked more to a slowdown in US industrial activity than to any loss in Indian competitiveness,” GTRI said.
Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agri-foods, and machinery account for nearly 60% of India’s US exports. These sectors suffered a 33% decline, from $4.8 billion in May to $3.2 billion in September, GTRI found in the analysis.
Gems and jewellery exports collapsed 59.5%, from $500.2 million to $202.8 million, sending units in Surat and Mumbai down the drain as Thailand and Vietnam captured lost US orders, GTRI said.
Exports of solar panels shrank 60.8%, from $202.6 million to $79.4 million, affecting India’s edge on renewable energy export.
The decline came in at 16.7% from $600 million to $500 million.
“With China facing only 30 per cent tariffs and Vietnam 20 percent, India’s competitiveness has sharply deteriorated,” the trade think tank said.
Chemical, marine and seafood, textiles, agri and processed foods also declined, the analysis found.