India’s GDP growth surprised many during the first quarter of the financial year, coming at 7.8%- a five-quarter high. The second quarter prints may also come on a strong note, with GDP growing in the range of 7% to 8%, above RBI’s projection of 7% for Q2FY26. However, it may not be able to boost market sentiment as nominal GDP growth, economic expansion before adjusting for inflation, may have slowed further.
Nominal GDP growth slid to a three-quarter low of 8.8% in Q1FY26. In Q2, it may fall to 8%, according to experts.
Experts say strong government spending, a favourable base effect and subdued deflator growth could act as statistical growth drivers for the second quarter GDP numbers. Moreover, the impact of 50% US tariffs on Indian goods did not fully materialise in the quarter, as front-loading of exports continued.
However, GDP numbers could come on the lower side in the second half of FY26 as statistical drivers start to fade. Additionally, the effect of US tariffs will also reflect in numbers due to delays in an India-US trade deal.
The Q2FY26 GDP data will be released on Friday, November 28.
Q2 GDP: Strong prints likely; nominal GDP to be in focus
Economists largely expect Q2FY26 GDP prints to be between 7% to 8%. According to a Mint poll, Q2 GDP growth likely stayed at 7.2%. State Bank of India expects India’s GDP growth for the quarter to be around 7.5%.
Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings, believes India’s Q2 GDP may come in at 7–7.2%, supported by firming urban demand ahead of the festive season, a meaningful revival in rural spending, and sustained public-sector investment.
Sharma underscored that consumption remains the economy’s primary growth engine, contributing 55–60% of GDP.
With rising incomes and healthier balance sheets, Sharma said the consumption cycle is broadening.
“The 7.7% year-on-year rise in rural demand in Q2—the fastest in 17 quarters—marks a notable shift after several muted years. Softer inflation, improved credit availability, and aggressive festive promotions in automobiles, appliances, and electronics have lifted sentiment across both urban and rural markets. High-frequency indicators echo this momentum: E-way bill generation is up 26%, and GST collections are nearing ₹1.9 lakh crore,” said Sharma.
According to Union Bank of India’s economists, GDP data for Q2FY26 may come at 7.5%.
GVA growth for Q2FY26 likely improved to 7.3% from 5.8% in Q2 FY25, though somewhat slower than 7.6% in Q1. Nominal GDP growth likely slowed sharply further to 8% from 8.8% in Q1 and 8.3% in the same period last year, said Union Bank of India.
On the other hand, Namrata Mittal, Chief Economist, SBI Mutual Fund, believes India’s Q2 GDP prints can come on a slightly higher side.
Mittal expects real GDP growth in Q2 FY26 to accelerate to 8% year-on-year, compared to 7.8% in Q1 FY26 and significantly above the RBI’s projection of 7% for the quarter.
Mittal, however, added that while real growth appears robust, nominal GDP is expected to come in at only 8.5–9% in Q2 (versus 8.8% in Q1), well below the desired 11–12% range for India.
“Government expenditure—particularly at the central level—has been frontloaded, providing strong support to growth. However, an important factor to note is that exceptionally weak CPI and WPI inflation may have distorted the statistical representation of real growth,” said.
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