MELBOURNE, Australia — After all the attention on Iga Świątek’s bid to remake her balance between baseline patience and going for too much when under stress, her Australian Open elimination actually came down to something far more simple: the serve.
Up against one of the game’s best servers, the 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, Świątek’s lack of a release valve in tight moments and access to free points in more neutral ones led to a 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal defeat. Rybakina, seeded No. 5 and a finalist here three years ago, gave herself a platform for the victory with a devastating serving display.
Świątek was always facing an uphill battle because of how much more she was having to do to hold serve, essentially playing every game if not on return, then with a huge reduction in advantage from the start of points. Rybakina’s serve, by contrast, released pressure almost every time that she faced it.
Rybakina won 93 percent of her first-serve points in the first set, but only made 41 percent of her first serve attempts. That meant she was largely in charge of her service games even when hitting more second serves than first ones. When down 0-40 in the third game of the match after an exchange of breaks, Rybakina was able to serve her way out of trouble, helped by a first of 11 aces. She went down 0-15 five times, compared to just twice for Świątek, but held serve on all five occasions where Świątek was broken once.
Świątek by contrast won just 64 percent of her first-serve points in the opening set, off a first-serve percentage of 54. After having to work so much harder to win points on her serve, the pressure eventually told in the 12th game. Serving down 6-5, Świątek went up 30-0 but got dragged back to 30-30. After missing a forehand wide, she saved a set point, but Rybakina picked up the second from a game in which Świątek had to hit six second serves from eight points played.
Freed up by winning the opener, the second set was even more of a serving clinic from Rybakina. Down 15-30 when up 2-0, Rybakina responded with an ace and two +1 (tennis speak for the first shot after the serve) winners to hold. When down 0-30 in her next service game, Rybakina hit a quartet of aces to hold via deuce, the second two of which came after Świątek had battled to win a point to keep herself in the game. Rybakina’s response to hold for 4-1 felt like a crushing blow.
An ace, fittingly, sealed the win.
For Świątek, a day when her serve felt under constant pressure brought back memories of her defeat to Aryna Sabalenka at last year’s French Open. And was in stark contrast to how well she served on her way to winning Wimbledon a month later, when she could play with so much more freedom knowing she was largely taking care of her service games.
It was a similar story when Świątek beat Rybakina at the Cincinnati Open last August, when she made 69 percent of her first serves, winning 78 percent of those, and 67 percent on her second serve. Those figures were 55, 65 and 40 Wednesday, when it was Rybakina who said in her on-court interview that “she could play more free” in the second set knowing she was serving so well.
The shift in scoreline from tight to one-sided also crystallized the reality of a few recent Świątek performances in which a similar pattern happens. Having to earn almost every point on her serve via a rally flips her from being in an advantageous position to a near 50-50 one. Constantly winning games from such a position, especially against such a good player as Rybakina, is hard; only a small shift in points won can take a set from close to one-sided.
Świątek was only on court for one hour and 35 minutes, but it felt like longer after a match in which it felt like she was playing defense every game, irrespective of who was serving.
For Rybakina, if she can keep playing with the same rhythm on serve and general serenity, no one will want to face her between now and Saturday — even the world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.