How stocks usually react to December Fed days — and why Powell’s final meeting of 2025 could be different

Investors were bracing for the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025 on Wednesday, with history showing that the S&P 500 index has tended to see a modest gain on Fed days in December.

Going back to 2000, the S&P 500

SPX has gained an average of roughly 0.2% on December Fed days, with a median gain of 0.1%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Last December was an outlier, though, with stocks and bonds selling off after the Fed released a new set of economic projections that pointed to a potentially slower pace of rate cuts than previously forecast.