A throw-in within range of the penalty box in the dying minutes of a game involving Liverpool. It is a scenario that has often spelled trouble for them this season.
Against Nottingham Forest, the tables turned.
After four long throw-ins had been launched into the box by Joe Gomez across a 10-minute period, he decided to go short to Dominik Szoboszlai. The midfielder patiently shifted the ball until the opportunity to cross became available. He finally found Virgil van Dijk, whose header was blocked into the path of Alexis Mac Allister, and he bundled in a precious winning goal.
Not only was it a reversal of Arne Slot’s side conceding a late goal, but it continued the upward trajectory of their set-piece success, as the Argentinian’s goal technically came from a throw-in.
Opta defines a set-piece goal as one where the ball starts from a dead-ball situation, such as a corner, free kick, penalty, or throw-in, and results in a shot before the phase of play has broken down into open play.
Slot has not stopped talking about set pieces all season, largely because they proved so costly in the first half of the campaign.
It led to the departure of set-piece coach Aaron Briggs on December 30. At that point in the season, Liverpool had scored eight but conceded 13 in 27 matches in all competitions, but the problems were bigger than that.
Slot has referenced his team’s “set-piece balance” on numerous occasions. In Europe, Liverpool were flying, scoring five and conceding none — a set-piece balance of 5.
In the Premier League, which has shifted towards a more physical, set-piece orientated style this season, they had conceded 12 and scored three — a balance of -9.
“The current Premier League is so much more about set pieces than it was last year,” Slot told reporters earlier this month. “It is actually impossible to win the league with a balance like ours.”
Something had to change. Briggs left and set-piece analyst Lewis Mahoney, who had arrived from Southampton in the summer, became a more prominent figure on Liverpool’s bench. Since then, Liverpool’s set-piece balance is 7 in 13 matches in all competitions, scoring nine and conceding two.
Their dominance in the Champions League has continued — three goals and zero conceded in two matches — while in the Premier League they have scored six and conceded only two.
So what is behind the shift?
Defending set pieces
“I’m happy that you ask that question because it would be very unfair to Aaron (Briggs), who was partly responsible for that. In the end, I’m responsible for everything,” Slot told reporters ahead of the Nottingham Forest game, in response to a query about the upturn in set pieces.
“But we’ve been so unlucky in that period of time, so unlucky. We all knew that it couldn’t go on like that because we hardly gave away a chance in set pieces, but every ball went in, and we created multiple opportunities to score and the ball didn’t go in. So things going back to normal now, it’s something we expected.”
When it comes to luck, Slot does have a point. In the first 18 Premier League games this season, Liverpool conceded an expected goals total of 6.1 from set pieces, yet conceded almost double that (12). When you compare that to the nine matches since the change, opponents have averaged the same number of shots (3.8 per game) and Liverpool have recorded a similar xG against (dropping from 0.34 to 0.3), but they have only conceded two from an xG against of 2.7.
As The Athletic detailed earlier in the season, the goals Liverpool were conceding were not standard set-piece goals. Rather, they were often coming from the second and third phases.
When rewatching Liverpool’s setup from corners, for example, it is practically identical to what it was earlier in the campaign. Recently, Hugo Ekitike, Van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate and Ryan Gravenberch take up the same positions in the six-yard box. When Alexander Isak started, he would be in Ekitike’s role.
If we compare Liverpool’s setup for Nottingham Forest’s opening goal in their 3-0 victory at Anfield in November…
… and compare it to Liverpool’s setup in the corresponding fixture last weekend, there is little difference, with the exception of Szoboszlai’s position, moving from a blocker to a zonal role.
“Aaron had an analyst (Lewis Mahoney) and the two of them were mainly responsible,” Slot explained. “In the end, I’m responsible, but they did the work. That hasn’t changed. So, Lewis does the main work, and then we have a meeting together and we look at the last details.
“We maybe made one or two slight changes, but we didn’t change much. What changed is that things went back to normal, because in the Champions League, I think we were number one in set pieces. We’ve just adjusted one or two small things.”
Alongside personnel tweaks based on team selection, there have been small alterations to the setup of the rest of the team depending on the opposition.
This has been most obvious with Cody Gakpo. Against Newcastle, he was positioned between Van Dijk and Konate…
… but against Sunderland, he was positioned between Konate and Gravenberch.
For the defensive setup against Manchester City, Gakpo and Szoboszlai both were in zonal roles, with the former adding protection at the front post and the latter at the back post.
This isn’t a new thing, however, as for the fixture against Sunderland at Anfield, Gakpo was in a near-post zonal role.
Eight of the 13 goals conceded before Briggs left were from corners. There have been zero since. There have been a couple of scares, but Liverpool are continuing to defend the first phase and reacting better in the later phases to clear the danger.
Throw-ins have continued to be a thorn in Liverpool’s side. Van Dijk has attempted to take on the responsibility of making first contact. The problem, like against Bournemouth, is that if he cannot make the first connection, trouble can follow.
Against Fulham, Liverpool’s concentration while defending a long throw saw them concede a 25-yard screamer from Harrison Reed instead.
Attacking set pieces
These are also trending in the opposite direction. In the last 13 games in all competitions, Liverpool are overperforming their xG significantly, scoring nine goals, nearly double their xG of 4.9.
They are averaging 4.2 set-piece shots per 90, up from 3.5, and their xG per 90 has also risen from 0.3 to 0.38.
Four of the goals coming from free kicks have played a key role in that. Szoboszlai’s strike against Manchester City was pure brilliance, while his goal against Marseille was clever. Liverpool had identified ahead of the match that the French side did not use a player as a draught excluder in the wall, opening up the opportunity for a shot to be struck under it.
Szoboszlai and Salah swapped roles to score almost identical free kicks against Bournemouth and Qarabag by laying the ball off to create a better shooting opportunity.
In the league, six goals have come from an xG of 2.7, including three from corners, and this is where one of the notable shifts has occurred.
Since Briggs’ departure, there has been a bigger emphasis on delivering inswinging corners and directing them towards the six-yard box. In recent months, especially since Salah returned from AFCON, the Egypt international, Szoboszlai and Gakpo have been Liverpool’s primary corner takers.
From the graphic above, we can see that corners delivered from the left have increasingly been aimed for the centre of the six-yard box (rising from 27 per cent to 65 per cent), right on top of the goalkeeper.
From the opposite side, the increase is less stark, but it has still risen. The bigger difference on this flank is the rise in inswinging corners to 53 per cent, up from 20 per cent.
This strategy paid off against Sunderland, with Liverpool congesting the six-yard box. Salah’s delivery found Van Dijk and his header, which was heading for goal, was directed into the net by Nordi Mukiele.
“It was something we talked about,” Van Dijk told reporters after the game. “Obviously, they have the two big centre-backs who tend to head away quite a lot. Their goalkeeper is having a fantastic season, but punching under pressure is never great. So we knew there could be some interesting ones in the second phase as well.”
Liverpool have always mixed up their attacking set-piece strategy, often centred on varying the movement of Van Dijk and Konate to get them into goalscoring positions. A lot has to go right for that to happen — from the delivery, to team-mates helping create space, and then the finish itself.
The plan does not always work. Salah spent the first half against Bournemouth, for example, firing corners from the right deep into the box, with Van Dijk peeling towards the back post, to little success.
However, on the opposite side, the plan was different. Szoboszlai curled his corners towards the near post, and the centre-back made a different run and scored a flicked header.
To keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive, Liverpool had to solve their set-piece problem. Progress has undeniably been made, but it is a trend they must maintain until May if they want to reap the rewards.