Several Nottingham Forest players have already spoken enthusiastically about Vitor Pereira immediately restoring the same brand of spirit and unity they had in the dressing room last season.
But Forest’s fate may be decided by the manager’s ability to instil the ruthlessness that underpinned their heroics under Nuno Espirito Santo, too.
Forest’s first performance under Pereira in the Premier League brought plenty of reasons for hope and optimism. They dominated reigning champions Liverpool for long spells at the City Ground.
In the first half, Forest had 12 efforts on goal compared to Liverpool’s two. They played front-foot football, relentlessly pinning the visitors back in their own half.
It felt like the kind of attacking performance that would not have been seen under Sean Dyche. In that first half, it was definitely a level of quality that would fuel the belief that survival remains firmly within reach. Ultimately, the result also offered an all too painful reminder of where they have often fallen short — now under four different managers — and of the biggest challenge facing Pereira.
This was the 13th time that Forest have failed to score in a top-flight game this season. Only bottom side Wolves have drawn blanks in more matches (15).
Callum Hudson-Odoi might have scored early on, when sent clear by Ibrahim Sangare, but he was denied by a strong save from Alisson. Igor Jesus fluffed his lines when Omari Hutchinson sent him through on goal, hesitating too long and allowing Virgil van Dijk to snatch the ball. Nikola Milenkovic also planted a powerful header narrowly wide in the second half.
Callum Hudson-Odoi is denied by Alisson (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
The outstanding duo of Elliot Anderson and Sangare both came close with efforts from outside the box. Overall, Forest had an xG of 1.26.
Two further stats underlined the contrasting emotions: The 12 first-half shots Forest had were the most any side has managed in the opening 45 minutes of a Premier League game against Liverpool since Stoke City in May 2015 (also 12), with Stoke 5-0 up at half-time that day. Yet only Burnley (12) have scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Forest (13). Forest have drawn a blank eight times at home — more than any other top-flight side.
It is easy to say Forest miss Chris Wood — they do. Hugely. What they miss specifically is his ability to make the most of the opportunities that come his way. He scored 20 Premier League goals last season, from an xG of just 13.66. Forest scored 58 times in 38 games, from an overall xG of 46.51. They had a big chance conversion rate of 38.46 per cent on their way to seventh place.
This season, Forest have had an xG of 31.81 — but have scored only 25 times in 27 games. That remarkable cutting edge has been absent, even if their big chance conversion rate has only dropped slightly to 37.21 per cent.
Their potential firepower was evident in Istanbul, with Forest beating Fenerbahce 3-0 on Thursday and Jesus taking his tally of goals for the season to 12. But the issue for the Brazilian — and for Forest — is that only two of those goals have come in the league, the last of which was in a 2-0 win at Brentford last month.
Igor Jesus could not add to his Premier League tally against Liverpool (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
Just like Nuno, Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche before him, Pereira’s task is to find a way to get this Forest team firing.
“But we are creating, yes?” Pereira said when asked how they could address the issue of goals. “In the first half, we crossed a lot of balls, we had a lot of shots, we tried to create situations one-vs-one, we got a lot of corners. We played very good football with the ball, switching play, creating problems on the counter-attack, creating problems in organised attacks… The second half was not the same, because it was impossible to have the same energy, to keep the block as high. In the end, it is difficult to explain.”
Forest hope Wood will play again before the end of the campaign, as he recovers from a left knee injury that eventually required surgery over the Christmas period. But, even if he does return in the coming weeks, it would be unwise to expect a 34-year-old who has not played since October to immediately find his sharpness.
In the meantime, Pereira believes Jesus can flourish. “Igor played a fantastic game in Istanbul. Today was more difficult for him because he was up against two very difficult central defenders,” said Pereira. “He is a different player (to Wood), with different skills. But he is a very good player and he will score goals, for sure.”
Morgan Gibbs-White, with six goals, is Forest’s top scorer in the Premier League, with Hudson-Odoi next, on three. It is only two games into Pereira’s tenure. He has had four training sessions to work with these players. He was not going to solve all of their problems overnight, and this, more broadly, was a performance that offered a great deal of promise.
Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest’s top scorer in the Premier League (Ben Stansall/AFP via Getty Images)
Until Alexis Mac Allister cruelly broke Forest’s resolve in the 97th minute, this felt like it would be a positive first league game in charge for Pereira. A draw would have been the least Forest deserved.
When Fenerbahce visit for the second leg of their Europa League play-off tie on Thursday, it might afford Pereira the opportunity to experiment just a little, with Forest holding a 3-0 advantage. Lorenzo Lucca, the Italian striker on loan from Napoli, is likely to get another opportunity to show what he can do, as Forest look to secure a tie against either Midtjylland or Real Betis.
In 2022-2023 (10 goals) and 2023-2024 (six), it was Taiwo Awoniyi who provided vital goals that helped keep Forest away from relegation, and the big striker offered a reminder of what he can do when he scored a fine individual goal in that win over Brentford. He was not in the squad that faced his former club, Liverpool, but do not rule him out having a part to play again.
Pereira does have options available, but, amid them all, he must find a solution to the problem that has undermined this side under all of his predecessors.