The marathon to the Oscars officially begins next week, when five influential organizations unveil their selections — setting the early tone for a season that promises heavyweight contenders, late-breaking surprises and no shortage of pundit hand-wringing.
The Gotham Awards (Dec. 1), New York Film Critics Circle (Dec. 2), National Board of Review (Dec. 3) and Los Angeles Film Critics Association (Dec. 7) make up the first major wave of precursor announcements. Sprinkled between them are the Film Independent Spirit Award nominations (Dec. 2), the Critics Choice film nominations (Dec. 5) and the occasional smaller regional critics’ citations — all adding to the noise as the season ignites.
While each group has its own identity, influence and taste profile, three of them — NYFCC, NBR and LAFCA — are considered part of the so-called “Big Four” critics’ awards (the National Society of Film Critics completes the quartet when it announces on Jan. 3). Only three films in history have swept all four: “Schindler’s List” (1993), “L.A. Confidential” (1997) and “The Social Network” (2010). Only “Schindler” went on to win the Oscar for best picture.
This coming week could also determine how Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic “One Battle After Another” settles into the season. As the assumed frontrunner, its performance across these groups will be watched closely — though a miss (or even multiple misses) would hardly render it “dead.” Instead, depending on who emerges victorious, it could clarify the shape of a spoiler. That might be Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” anchored by presumed best actress leader Jessie Buckley; Ryan Coogler’s gothic horror drama “Sinners,” featuring a transformative Michael B. Jordan; or Josh Safdie’s wild-card period comedy “Marty Supreme,” showcasing Timothée Chalamet.
This marks the third year since the Gotham Awards — hosted by the Gotham Film & Media Institute — eliminated its $35 million budget cap. The change has broadened its slate and, occasionally, its Oscar impact. Past Gotham best feature winners include “Spotlight,” “Moonlight” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” all of which ultimately won the Academy’s top prize. Still, the Gothams often set the tone rather than foretelling destiny, signaling which titles are entering the conversation with heat. PTA’s $130 million-plus vehicle set the all-time Gotham noms record with six (much to the disdain of indie filmmakers who are trying relentlessly to garner some notice). Many believe the film will clean up. However, with jury of five people, there’s no telling what they’ll select.
The NYFCC is among the industry’s most prestigious critics’ groups, though its choices rarely mirror the Academy’s ultimate victor. The membership gravitates toward deep, textural narratives — think Todd Haynes’ “Carol” — and often sidesteps the presumed Oscar frontrunner. The group has aligned with the Academy’s best picture winner only once in the past decade, with Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist.” The group is also vulnerable to recency bias, memorably selecting “American Hustle” in 2013 just one day after screening it. That could bode well for James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in his franchise which will screen for critics for the first time on Monday. Many of the NYFCC membership have been publicly euphoric about PTA’s starry ensemble joint. That could kick things off accordingly.
The National Board of Review often manufactures early-season momentum that evaporates by the time Oscar voting arrives. Historically, NBR has favored Warner Bros. films, particularly those directed by Clint Eastwood. Over 40 years, most NBR best film winners have gone on to earn at least an Oscar nomination for best picture — exceptions include “Gods and Monsters” (1998), “Quills” (2000) and “A Most Violent Year” (2014). The 1980s included two notable misses: “Empire of the Sun” (1987) and “Betrayal” (1983), the latter tying with “Terms of Endearment.”
Since the Academy expanded the best picture lineup in 2009, NBR and the Oscars have intersected only once with “Green Book” (2018).
And last year was a particularly rough one for NBR’s predictive power. Of its major winners, only Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) went on to win the Oscar. Best film winner “Wicked” and adapted screenplay winner “Sing Sing” secured nominations, but the rest — director Jon M. Chu, Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), Elle Fanning (“A Complete Unknown”) and the original screenplay “Hard Truths” — failed to materialize with the Academy.
The Los Angeles Film Critics Association tends to favor bold filmmaking, and its best picture winner can often becomes a significant awards-season force. Last year’s pick, “Anora,” joined a lineage of LAFCA champs that later triumphed at the Oscars, including “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “Moonlight” (2016) and “Parasite” (2019). LAFCA’s choices for best director often intersect with the Academy as well, with six winners since 2009 — including Kathryn Bigelow, Bong Joon Ho and Jane Campion — eventually taking home the statuette.
Selected by roughly 575 voting members, the Critics Choice Awards tend to reflect broader industry consensus. Last season, “Anora” used a Critics Choice best picture win to reassert itself after being shut out at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards — momentum it carried all the way to the Academy Awards. Three acting winners — Adrien Brody, Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña — also repeated at the Oscars.
All this speculation also comes with a word of warning: early rarely equals most accurate. The earliest precursors can deceive. Before Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” won best picture, it failed to crack NBR’s top 10 and was omitted by other early groups, leading many pundits to declare the film finished. Could a similar pathway present itself with his newest effort, “Frankenstein?”
Also noteworthy, none of the “The Lord of the Rings” films ever made NBR’s top 10 lists either. And early critics’ citations can convince awards watchers that a contender is emerging — only for the Academy to pass on it entirely, as seen with Regina Hall in “Support the Girls” and Rachel Weisz in “The Deep Blue Sea.”
As these five organizations roll out their selections next week, industry watchers will begin parsing patterns, tea leaves and perceived momentum. But history suggests patience: the race doesn’t truly take shape until the guilds weigh in come January. Until then, next week is merely the opening act — lively, unpredictable and essential for understanding the terrain ahead.
Read Variety’s predicted precursor winners below.
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Gotham Awards
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Best Feature: “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman, producers
Alternates: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) and “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternate: Oliver Laxe, “Sirât” (Neon)
Outstanding Lead Performance: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Alternate: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon) and Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Outstanding Supporting Performance: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Alternates: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) and Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Breakthrough Performer: Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternate: Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Roadside Attractions/Lionsgate/LD Entertainment)
Original Screenplay: “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — written by Kleber Mendonça Filho
Alternate: “Sorry, Baby” (A24)
Adapted Screenplay: “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — written by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Alternate: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) — directed by Geeta Gandbhir; Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne, producers
Alternate: “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
International Feature: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Philippe Martin, Jafar Panahi, producers
Alternate: “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Breakthrough Director: Akinola Davies Jr., “My Father’s Shadow” (Mubi)
Alternate: Harris Dickinson, “Urchin” (1-2 Special)
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New York Film Critics Circle
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Best Film
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- “No Other Choice” (Neon)
- “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Actor
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Actress
- Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actor
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
- Alexander Skarsgård, “Pillion” (A24)
Supporting Actress
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Screenplay
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
- “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Animated Film
- “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
- “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
Cinematography
- “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
- “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
Non-Fiction Film
- “The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
- “Orwell: 2+2=5” (Neon)
- “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
International Film
- “Sirât” (Neon)
- “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa)
First Film
- “Pillion” (A24) Harry Lighton
- “The Chronology of Water” (The Forge) — Kristen Stewart
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National Board of Review
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix Best Picture: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Frankenstein” (Netflix); “Hamnet” (Focus Features)Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix); Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)Actor: Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Alternates: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)Actress: Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Alternates: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features); Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Supporting Actor: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alternates: Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24); Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)Original Screenplay: “Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer
Alternates: “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); “Sentimental Value” (Neon)Adapted Screenplay: “Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
Alternates: “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix); “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)Breakthrough Performance: Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Miles Caton, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Directorial Debut: Kristen Stewart. “The Chronology of Water” (The Forge)
Alternates: Ben Leonberg, “Good Boy” (IFC); Harry Lighton, “Pillion” (A24)Ensemble: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); “Hamnet” (Focus Features)Documentary Feature: “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Alternates: “Cover-Up” (Netflix); “The New Yorker at 100” (Netflix)International Feature: “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Alternates: “Nouvelle Vague” (Neon); “Belen” (Amazon MGM Studios)Cinematography: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Russell Carpenter
Alternates: “The Smashing Machine” (A24); “Train Dreams” (Netflix)NBR Freedom of Expression: Kaouther Ben Hania, “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa)
Top 10 Films
• “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
• “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
• “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
• “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
• “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
• “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
• “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures)
• “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
• “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
• “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)Top 10 Independent Films
• “The Baltimorons” (IFC)
• “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “Bob Trevino Likes It” (Roadside Attractions)
• “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “East of Wall” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• “The Life of Chuck” (Neon)
• “Preparation for the Life” (Amazon MGM Studios)
• “The Plague” (IFC)
• “Sorry, Baby” (A24)
• “Twinless” (Roadside Attractions) -
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Best Picture: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Alternates: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); Clint Bentley, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)Leading Performance: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) and Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Alternates: Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice” (Neon) and Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)Supporting Performance: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) and Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) and Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)Screenplay: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
Alternates: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler; “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas AndersonCinematography: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Russell Carpenter; “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael BaumanBest Editing: “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
Alternates: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione; “Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Affonso Gonçalves and Chloé ZhaoBest Music: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
Alternates: “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann; “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig GöranssonAnimated Film: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
Alternates: “Arco” (Neon); “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Production Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell
Alternates: “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios) — Kasra Farahani; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack FiskNew Generation: Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Miles Caton, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
Alternates: “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS); “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)Foreign Language Film: “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Alternates: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); “Sirāt” (Neon)