The forward template in Fantasy Premier League has seen another significant change in recent weeks, with Brentford’s Igor Thiago (£7.1m) the most transferred-in player for Gameweek 22.
Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike (£8.9m) is the highly owned player making way, having missed the last two gameweeks through injury. But he returned to action off the bench against Barnsley in the FA Cup on Monday.
Add into the mix just one goal for Erling Haaland (£15.1m) in the last four gameweeks, and we’ve hit a crossroads in our forward lines. So who are the best picks?
Thiago vs Ekitike
I was one of the many FPL managers to sell Thiago for Ekitike over the festive period, as form and fixtures collided.
Thiago had produced four successive blanks and there had been a significant drop in his underlying numbers. Since then, though, he has five goals and one assist in his last four. Those five goals have come in the two gameweeks Ekitike missed through injury, with the Liverpool forward producing just one assist in the same period.
Thiago ranks top for big chances on goal (seven) in the last four gameweeks, while he ranks second for big chances created (three).
Brentford’s run of favourable fixtures is coming to an end, though, with three away games in their next four against Chelsea, Aston Villa and Newcastle United. However, we cannot ignore that he’s scored 16 goals already this season in 20 starts, and so he feels like a player close to essential right now.
I actually believe the go-to forward line at the moment should include both Thiago and Ekitike alongside Haaland. Liverpool face Burnley (H) next, before playing Bournemouth (A) and Newcastle United (H) — sides Ekitike has scored against already this season.
Haaland perma-captain?
Haaland’s drop in form is continuing to cause headaches for FPL managers, with his penalty conversion against Brighton & Hove Albion his only return in the last four.
I’m not suggesting you should sell the Manchester City striker, who has scored a leading 20 goals this season, and ranks second for shots (17) in the last four gameweeks. His form may mean that we could look at alternative options for captaincy, with Ekitike among the credible alternatives for Gameweek 21.
But we do need to be mindful that Manchester United are one of Haaland’s favourite opponents, having grown up as a City fan. He has eight goals and three assists in six Premier League appearances against them, including two goals and one assist in a 3-0 win for City in his most recent visit to Old Trafford.
He could be rested for the visit of Wolves in Gameweek 23, with manager Pep Guardiola quoted in recent days saying he plans to “give rest to Erling because Erling is exhausted”.
Only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals to Erling Haaland than Manchester United (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Alternative forwards
While the new template may seem clear, there are plenty of forward alternatives to consider. I’ve enjoyed owning Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6m) in recent weeks.
The Leeds United striker has two goals with three starts in the last four gameweeks, to take him to 11 goal involvements for the campaign. His underlying numbers have declined since his six-game scoring streak, with six shots and just one big chance in this time. But the fixtures are there for Leeds, with Fulham at home next.
When it comes to underlying numbers, it’s Manchester United’s Benjamin Sesko (£7.2m) who is top for shots among all players, with 19 in the last four gameweeks.
He’s scored two goals from six big chances and could continue to thrive in a period of change for his club, with Michael Carrick stepping in as interim manager. Sesko could be one to look at come Gameweek 24, as United have tricky fixtures in the next two against Manchester City and Arsenal.
Could Benjamin Sesko benefit from Manchester United’s managerial change? (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) is another player to keep an eye on, with four goals in the last four gameweeks for the Aston Villa striker. His numbers are equally compelling, with 15 shots and seven big chances on goal. My only concern is Villa’s dip in form after Arsenal ended their winning streak.
They struggled to create chances in their trip to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 21, and then their fixtures stiffen again after the visit of Everton this weekend.
Budget picks
There are also some cost-effective picks emerging, with Wolves striker Mateus Mane (£4.5m) popping up with two goals and one assist since making his first start in Gameweek 18.
He’s had 10 shots on goal in this time, which suggests these returns could be sustainable. His side are unbeaten in the last three gameweeks, which is highly significant.
Bournemouth’s Eli Junior Kroupi (£4.6m) has also found himself back as a starter, scoring goals in consecutive games. He now has seven goals for the season. He might just be the man to score the goals in a period of change for the Cherries since the departure of Antoine Semenyo (£7.6m) to Manchester City, while Justin Kluivert (£7.0m) has undergone knee surgery.