Whether this is your first or eighth time reading my recap series, I welcome you to join me in evaluating our draft-day decisions and looking to improve next season. Honestly, we should never stop adapting, adjusting, improving, etc. Football continually evolves, and so should we. With that in mind, I’m examining the biggest misses — those who were valued too low or too high — from 2025. This week, I’m looking at running backs and quarterbacks and lessons learned to make better decisions next season. I’m skipping the “what I got right” this year, as that’s always fun but more of a confirmation bias.
Running Backs
Underperformers
Kaleb Johnson, PIT: Johnson was such a massive, industry-wide miss in rankings and projections that most forgot about him halfway through the season. We all plugged Johnson into the Najee Harris void without a second thought of Kenneth Gainwell. While we pay attention to “what teams are telling us” when they don’t add significant threats in the offseason (see D’Andre Swift and Chase Brown), we should also take heed of those teams that tell us the situation might not be as clear as we believe. Gainwell’s contract wasn’t massive, but it happened before the NFL draft, bringing enough risk to warrant concern about a committee, if not Johnson being the odd man out.
Saquon Barkley, PHI: You’ve heard the names of those RBs who declined after “370 touches” the previous year, but we could also make a list of those who were able to sustain that level of a workload and fantasy RB1 production: LaDainian Tomlinson seven straight seasons; Ricky Williams three straight seasons; Clinton Portis back-to-back seasons two different times; Tiki Barber five straight seasons … and there are more. I’m not saying we should ignore the “370” mark; it can add a bit more risk, and we should pay attention to offensive efficiency and the potential drop-off. The Eagles’ having their worst offense since 2021 (and first time not in the Top 7) was as much of a factor as the offensive line issues and Barkley’s wear-and-tear. (I have more on this situation below.)
Ashton Jeanty, LV: Even the “lowest” Jeanty rankers didn’t expect him to be this bad. Interestingly, my projections weren’t far off — 227.2 projected points to 206.7 actual points, and 13.4 FPPG compared to 12.9. My ranking of Jeanty at RB8, though, was too high even if it was two spots behind the industry average of RB6. Granted, I was like most in ranking Jeanty a bit higher for a potential ceiling, but we should have acknowledged just how bad the environment could be in Las Vegas. Jeanty’s case doesn’t mean an overhaul for rookie running backs — several did extremely well — it means that, when ranking one as a Top 20 draft pick, he better have more positives than negatives. So, if Jeremiyah Love ends up with the clear lead in a good offense, we’ll talk about him as a borderline first-round turn pick. If not, the 2/3 turn might be more realistic.
Kenneth Walker, SEA: You know the deal by now, as we heard late in July/early August that the Seahawks wanted to deploy Walker as the “workhorse.” Well, as August rolled along, Walker wasn’t getting on the field, and the potential RB1 excitement fell to RB16/17 (in both consensus and my rankings). We still didn’t adjust enough, as Walker frustrated as much as ever with an RB23 finish, falling 42.1 points short of my projection. The issue holding Walker back wasn’t even the missed time; it was the Seahawks’ insistence on a timeshare, despite the eyes and metrics showing who looked and performed better. It’s a tale trap as old as time, and teams that love timeshares won’t change just because we “wished they were smarter.”
Overperformers
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE: Speaking of timeshares, Stevenson was left for dead in fantasy. TreVeyon Henderson proved time and again that his talent was undeniable. In fact, we saw him average 22.7 points in three games with Stevenson sidelined. Nevertheless, Stevenson returned from injury and took a significant chunk of the touches, with a touchdown bonanza over the final three weeks. Stevenson outscored his FPPG projection by 3.6 per game, proving yet again, timeshares — for the teams that love them — are as inevitable as Thanos.
Javonte Williams, DAL: As I said regarding Kaleb Johnson, paying attention to what teams tell us shouldn’t be overlooked. I mentioned Swift and Brown, but how about the Cowboys letting Rico Dowdle walk after seeing what he did in 2024, signing Williams to a few more bucks despite his injury history, and barely adding to the backfield with a fifth-round rookie and a veteran running back well past his best days. The Cowboys essentially yelled “Williams is our guy” from the rooftops. We should have listened more, and I say this as someone who ranked him 11 spots over average (RB29).
Travis Etienne, JAX: Etienne isn’t completely in the same boat as Williams, as new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen brought a level of uncertainty, especially after taking Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh of the NFL draft. Even so, burying Etienne outside the Top 30 RBs now feels foolish, especially considering Etienne’s first two seasons. There was a deserved level of hesitancy, but not enough to kick him nearly into the ninth round. No one enjoys taking the “wrong” running back to lead a team, but when the cost is this low, we should take more chances.
James Cook, BUF: Cook’s ranking is another instance where I was both right and wrong at the same time. I argued for Cook, saying, “even if you split his touchdowns in half, he’s still an RB1,” yet I didn’t account for a major jump in rushing yards. Cook outscored his projections by 89.0 points, and once again, people want to debate “whether he can do it again.” There’s the saying, “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.” That can be true in fantasy. Instead of picking apart great performances because we’re surprised by them, appreciate what good players can do on good teams. People love Kyle Shanahan’s lead back, even when it’s not Christian McCaffrey (due to injury), because we know what the San Francisco offense does for RBs. Well, why is it different for Cook and the Bills?
Quarterbacks
Underperformers
Jalen Hurts, PHI: Getting back to my notes on Barkley and my promise to say more, things went so wrong for the Eagles’ offense that they fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after just one season. As we saw with John Morton in Detroit, promoting coaches from within the organization doesn’t guarantee continued success. Morton didn’t change a lot, but he did enough (or too little) to warrant his walking papers, with Dan Campbell having to take back control of the offense. Kellen Moore left Philly, and the Eagles promoted Patullo, but lack of creativity and failed second halves were part of Barkley’s and the entire offense’s downfall. Hurts took a significant hit, dropping from a range of 20.4 to 24.9 FPPG the previous four seasons to 18.7 this year. It wasn’t on the passing side; Hurts threw for 3,224 yards and a career-high 25 touchdowns. It was the Eagles’ worst overall offense since 2021 and their first finish outside the Top 7 in that span. Hurts went from 14 rushing touchdowns the previous season to just eight in 2025, with 211 fewer rushing yards. For quarterbacks who rely heavily on their rushing, we should attribute a bit more risk to offensive coordinator changes like these.
Cam Ward, TEN: Ward was disappointing to say the least. He didn’t have multiple touchdown passes until Week 15 and had just one game with over 13.1 points (Week 12 — 23.9) until Weeks 15-17 (15.0, 18.0, 17.0). Ward didn’t help Calvin Ridley bounce back — before Ridley’s season-ending injury — and worst of all, rarely ran. Ward won’t be a 600-yard rusher, but he’s capable of chipping in 300-400 yards and a few touchdowns on the ground. Brian Callahan proved to be another offensive coordinator who was thought of too highly, failing to get more out of Ward in his rookie year, and he was fired after starting 1-5. Ward fell short in the rankings and projections (77.4 fewer points), including over 700 fewer passing yards, half as many rushing yards, and 17 total touchdowns, down from the 26 projected. I’ll admit, everything I had was too aggressive on Ward, and I still believe, and recommend, taking high-ceiling fliers for final-round picks, especially at quarterback. The part I should have focused on more (to temper the excitement) was the questionable coaching staff and weapons, including two rookie wideouts who were taken on Day 3 of the NFL draft.
Overperformers
Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Lawrence is the other side of the coin in terms of coaching and weapons. We already touched on Liam Coen and the Jags’ backfield, but Lawrence was flush with receiving options. In fact, the Jaguars made a point to help and replace the loss of Travis Hunter with a deadline deal for Jakobi Meyers. No one saw that coming, but what we could have been more excited about and invested in was the potential for Lawrence to break out … finally. To be fair, I was on board with it, including tabbing Lawrence as a post, post … post-hype sleeper. Still, while projections weren’t too far off (-27.2 points), Lawrence reminds us that staff changes can make a big difference in maximizing potential — and yes, many of the options to this point have proved it can also go the other way.
Drake Maye, NE: Try to find anyone who didn’t have Maye as their breakout QB of 2025. Even though second-graders saw it coming, predicting an MVP-contending year was still surprising. Many, including me, questioned how good Maye could be in his breakout season, given his questionable receiving corps. After all, Stefon Diggs barely topped 1,000 yards as the team’s leader (1,013), with tight end Hunter Henry second at 768, and Kayshon Boutte third with 551. As we saw with the Tom Brady-led Patriots, though, the collection of weapons can produce enough when the quarterback play is borderline elite — no, I’m not putting Maye into pure “elite” territory yet, or in the realm of Brady; this is merely a comparison. Maye’s surprise year is also the toughest to apply to future drafts. His rushing helps (450-4 rushing line), but a leap to QB2/3 is pretty absurd. What I will say is something I’ve said many times in the past: Once we’re outside of Tier 1 quarterbacks, shoot for the ceiling, and feel free to take a shot on your favorite fringe QB1 with a similar ceiling argument … just do so in Round 7 or 8 next time instead of 9 or 10.
BONUS (just because) — Matthew Stafford, LAR: The other MVP candidate with a borderline career-year at 37 years old and a questionable back? Yeah, I would guess no one was even close to seeing this coming. Lesson here? We can do our best and still miss wildly.