Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, touches are divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smooth out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
We have to start with the No. 14 back in the rankings and one of the most available on waivers: Sean Tucker. Bucky Irving was slated to return this week. Rachaad White has been effective, more measured by his excellent success rate than by his yards per carry. If anyone is getting squeezed out of carries, it’s likely to be Tucker. Yes, Tucker looks great and was a top prospect before heart issues caused his draft stock to crash. He was extremely impressive as a receiver in Week 11. He was even better in the predictive stats in 2024 than he’s been this year in his limited action. But White has played well enough to retain the committee role he was ticketed to have. And if Irving is 100%, it’s at best a three-man committee or possibly back to two with Tucker back to the bench. Tucker managers probably need Irving out or very limited.
A better waiver-wire option, especially if you don’t need a back this week, is Chris Rodriguez, who seems to have seized the running-game role for the Commanders, though he offers little as a receiver. Rodriguez is worth a serious bid, but remember, players with byes typically draw little interest. Rodriguez is killing Jacory Croskey-Merritt in the advanced stats (an outstanding 1.0 yards over expected per carry, or twice JCM’s number, which also is good).
TreVeyon Henderson was No. 4, and this should be sustainable, but Rhamondre Stevenson has returned to practice, and Patriots’ player usage is very unpredictable and seemingly devoid of reason.
Aaron Jones is back to leading the Minnesota running game. Why? Who knows. According to NFL Next Gen Stats (NGS), Jordan Mason is an outstanding 0.8 rushing yards per attempt over expected, nearly three times what Jones has done. If he qualified, Jones would be 29th versus eighth for Mason. But the Vikings don’t seem to care, as Jones ranked eighth in market share and Mason 47th in Week 11.
Another backfield duo to sort is Tyrone Tracy (11th) and Devin Singletary (23rd). Both have been bad (negative yards over expected per carry), though Singletary has been much less bad. Do the NFL teams use these stats? I have no idea. But it seems to be very actionable evidence. If they do, the expectation would be a larger role for Singletary going forward.
D’Andre Swift (15th) continues to dominate the Bears’ backfield, but he’s replaced on the goal line by Kyle Monangai, crushing his value and making him play more like an RB20-25.
Kenneth Walker looked much better than Zach Charbonnet and also had a long TD run called back. The Seattle running game is a problem now, and the Hawks’ offensive line is decimated by injuries, but Walker has been much better (or less worse) than Charbonnet in the NGS. In Pro-Football-Reference’s success rate, it’s Charbonnet who is slightly less worse. So, there’s no real clarity here except that the Seahawks’ run blocking stinks.
We have to start with Michael Wilson, who was “only” seventh despite 18 targets. So that’s going to regress, of course, but he’s still a WR1 on a team that should pass a lot. I have no idea how long Marvin Harrison will be out with his appendectomy, but the base rate for players with this surgery is 1-2 games, which shocks me (I figured it was a 4-to-6 week injury since it’s a surgery). So this could end for Wilson this coming week.
Tyrell Shavers was productive but was still barely targeted at 17%. Did he earn more? I guess, but who can figure out the Bills’ passing game? Shavers has no floor. To me, he’s no different than Tyquan Thornton.
Yes, the Chiefs refuse to play Thornton for some reason, even though he has 190 yards on his past 10 targets. This is not a misprint. Yet he’s getting 22% snaps versus 75% for Xavier Worthy, who has 281 yards on 45 targets — worthless. Worthy is Andy Reid’s pet project for some reason.
Maybe I’m alone in wanting to see more of the 300-pound TE Darnell Washington. Could you please just look at this again? At 6-foot-7, Washington should play every snap. We know Aaron Rodgers insisted he stay at TE when the Steelers planned to move him to tackle. No, there is no floor.
Wan’Dale Robinson was No. 8, and Jaxson Dart is expected to return this week, according to reports. But I figured the Giants would be more careful with him, given his concussion history this year. With Dart, Robinson gets six targets per game and 8.92 fantasy points per game.
Jakobi Meyers was in the top 20, but the Jacksonville passing game is bad, plus Brian Thomas may return in Week 12.
Tetairoa McMillan was great, though not so much in market share, where he was WR17. Still, you have to respect the performance of Bryce Young and, even if you want to consider it a fluke, he’s going against a decimated 49ers defense that just gave up the most completions ever … to the Cardinals. I’d rank McMillan in the top 10 this week.
Kenneth Gainwell was the No. 1 RB in target share, but there is a lot of uncertainty here with Jaylen Warren’s status unknown and Rodgers (non-throwing broken wrist) possibly out.
AJ Barner was more of a response to the Rams deploying so many nickel-and-dime schemes and showing no respect for the Seattle running game. The WRs were swarmed, and that funneled targets to Barner. Will defenses repeat what worked against Seattle? Probably. But will Seattle figure out a way to attack this other than throwing Barner 25% of passes? They’d better.
Adonai Mitchell was mocked for his miscues, but he got open against the Patriots, finished about WR30 in market share and gets Tyrod Taylor and thus more expected passing volume in Week 12. He’s a sneaky, cheap pickup. Remember, drops are not predictive, but getting open is.
Chase Brown had a 20% target share, which is outstanding. He was also over 20% in his last start (Week 9), and now Ja’Marr Chase (spitting) is suspended for Week 12. Move Brown up the ranks.