Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri are set for an epic Formula 1 title decider after Verstappen threw a spanner in the works for McLaren by winning the Qatar Grand Prix.
Verstappen took advantage of a questionable strategy call from McLaren to claim victory from third on the grid, with Piastri second and Norris back in fourth behind the Williams of Carlos Sainz.
It means the title race is heading to an Abu Dhabi GP finale at Yas Marina next weekend, with three drivers having a shot at claiming the championship for the first time since 2010.
What are the current standings?
Norris remains the favourite, although what had looked like a comfortable 30-point lead over Piastri and a 42-point lead over Verstappen pre-double DQ in Las Vegas has been whittled down.
Following a disappointing weekend for Norris in Qatar — with Piastri winning the sprint race and Verstappen the main event — Norris is 12 points ahead of Verstappen, and 16 ahead of his teammate Piastri.
Here’s how all three stack up heading into the season-ender.
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Norris – 408 points
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Verstappen – 396 points
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Piastri – 392 points
There are 25 points up for grabs in Abu Dhabi …
How can Norris win F1 title?
Before we explain what happens if drivers are level on points, lets get the basics thrashed out.
Norris will win his maiden world championship if Verstappen doesn’t outscore him by 13 points, and Piastri by 17.
As there are 25 points available for a win, 18 for second place and 15 for third — Norris will be crowned champion if he finishes on the podium regardless of what his rivals get up to.
So…
If Norris wins the Abu Dhabi GP: He wins title
If Norris finishes 2nd: He wins title
If Norris finishes 3rd: He wins title
If Norris finishes 4th: He wins title IF Verstappen doesn’t win the race
If Norris finishes 5th: He wins title IF Verstappen doesn’t win the race
If Norris finishes 6th: He wins title IF NEITHER Verstappen nor Piastri win the race
If Norris finishes 7th: He wins title IF NEITHER Verstappen nor Piastri win the race
If Norris finishes 8th: He wins title IF Verstappen finishes 3rd or lower AND Piastri doesn’t win the race
If Norris finishes 9th: He wins title IF Verstappen finishes 4th or lower AND Piastri doesn’t win the race
If Norris finishes 10th: He wins title IF Verstappen finishes 4th or lower AND Piastri finishes 3rd or lower
If Norris finishes outside the points: He wins title IF Verstappen finishes 4th or lower AND Piastri finishes 3rd or lower
Nice and simple then!
How can Verstappen win F1 title?
Verstappen, once not thought to be a contender in this fight, is suddenly Norris’s main threat. But the odds are still against the Dutchman, aiming for his fifth straight drivers’ title.
The Red Bull driver likely has to win Sunday’s race, and hope Norris finishes off the podium.
If Verstappen doesn’t win the race, he needs Norris to have a nightmare — and hope Piastri doesn’t outscore him by five points.
So…
If Verstappen wins the Abu Dhabi GP: He wins the title IF Norris finishes 4th or lower
If Verstappen finishes 2nd: He wins the title IF Norris finishes 8th or lower AND Piastri doesn’t win the race
If Verstappen finishes 3rd: He wins the title IF Norris finishes 9th or lower AND Piastri doesn’t win the race
Verstappen can’t win the title if he finishes 4th or lower.
How can Piastri win F1 title?
An outside shot for the Australian — he has to finish at least second at Yas Marina, and hope for a lot of help.
If Piastri wins the Abu Dhabi GP: He wins the title IF Norris finishes 6th or lower
If Piastri finishes 2nd: He wins the title IF Norris finishes 10th or lower AND Verstappen finishes 4th or lower
Piastri can’t win the title if he finishes 3rd or lower.
What happens if there’s a tie at the top?
There are a few scenarios where two drivers finish level on points — like Verstappen finishing second (getting to 414 points) and Norris seventh — but these all work in the British driver’s favour.
Norris, Verstappen and Piastri are level on races won this year (seven) so the tiebreaker instead goes to countback on second-place finishes.
There, Norris has the advantage with eight points compared to Verstappen’s five, and Piastri’s four.
If Verstappen or Piastri win the race, there’s no scenario where drivers finish level, making the races countback moot.